Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans Final — October 11, 2026
HOUStarting quarterbacksexpected startersTEN
HOUOffense2026 regular season to dateTENHOUDefenseTENHOURecent formTENHOUHome and roadseason to dateTENInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
HOURest & travelTENHOUKey injuriesTENAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 32 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Texans (0-4) visited the Titans (0-4) at Nissan Stadium on Sunday, October 11 at 1:00 PM ET in Week 5.
The Texans have the 19th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 21st-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Titans have the 25th-ranked offense and the 24th-ranked defense. When the Texans have the ball, a 19th-ranked offense (−0.026 EPA per play) meets a 24th-ranked defense (+0.065 allowed); when the Titans have it, a 25th-ranked offense (−0.085) meets a 21st-ranked defense (+0.035 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Texans offense is at 41.6% (21st) and the Titans offense at 41.2% (23rd). Through the air, the Texans average +0.071 EPA per dropback (15th) against a Titans pass defense ranked 28th; the Titans average −0.104 (26th) against a Texans pass defense ranked 25th. The Texans score 21.0 points per game (20th) and allow 27.2 (26th); the Titans score 13.8 (31st) and allow 20.8 (9th).
C.J. Stroud has a 47.6% success rate (14th of 32 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Cam Ward's 44.2% (21st). Per dropback, Stroud is at +0.091 EPA to Ward's −0.113, with 5 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions to Ward's 3 and 2.
The Texans are 0-4 and 0-4 against the spread; their last game was a 34-30 loss to the Cowboys. The Titans are 0-4 and 2-2 against the spread; their last game was a 24-18 loss to the Ravens.
The Texans closed as 6.5-point road favorites, with the Titans getting the points at home. The spread closed where it opened. The total closed at 37.5, down from 39 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Texans -310, Titans +250) prices the Texans at 73% and the Titans at 27%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Houston Texans 26, Tennessee Titans 3
Houston Texans won by 23.
- Against the closing spread (Tennessee Titans +6.5): Houston Texans covered.
- Combined score 29 vs the closing total of 37.5: Under.
- Houston Texans closed at -310 on the moneyline (a 73% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
The market barely moved from open to close.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Houston Texans 73%, Tennessee Titans 27%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 1:49 — Tennessee Titans ball, 2nd & 4 at TEN 382-T.Spears left tackle to TEN 37 for -1 yards (94-D.Robinson). FUMBLES (94-D.Robinson), RECOVERED by HOU-5-J.Pitre at TEN 35.Houston Texans 70% → 80% (+10 pts) · Drive 5 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 12:17 — Tennessee Titans ball, 1st & 10 at MID 501-C.Ward pass short middle intended for 20-T.Pollard INTERCEPTED by 35-J.Hansen (55-D.Hunter) [55-D.Hunter] at HOU 40. 35-J.Hansen pushed ob at TEN 41 for 19 yards (84-G.Helm).Houston Texans 75% → 85% (+10 pts) · Drive 7 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| Texans | Points added | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| -0.0 | Passingdropbacks | -13.6 |
| -5.0 | Rushingdesigned runs | -0.7 |
| +11.5 | Explosive plays8 plays · 4 plays | +5.7 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 2 giveaways | -11.4 |
| +3.7 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +2.0 |
| -0.0 | Penalties11 for 95 yds · 7 for 83 yds | -0.0 |
| +1.6 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 4 · 0 of 1 | -2.6 |
| +11.8 | All plays | -20.5 |
The biggest single gap: passing, worth about 13.5 points to Houston Texans. The final margin was 23.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Houston Texans closed as the market favourite at 73% and won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Texans -6.5 (-109)
Texans -6.5 (-111)
Titans +250 27%
Titans +250 27%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
Xavier Hutchinson has 166 receiving yards for the Texans (50th of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 18.8%. David Montgomery has 127 rushing yards on 47 carries (35th of 46 qualified running backs). Carnell Tate has 268 receiving yards for the Titans (14th of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 29.6%. Tony Pollard has 221 rushing yards on 54 carries (20th of 46 qualified running backs).
- Carries47
- Rush yards12735th
- Yards per carry2.745th
- EPA per rush−0.34144th
- Rush success rate25.5%45th
- Targets / catches26 / 12
- Receiving yards16650th
- Target share18.8%41st
- Yards per target6.471st
- EPA per target+0.05861st
- Targets / catches27 / 21
- Receiving yards2147th
- Target share19.6%10th
- Yards per target7.911th
- EPA per target+0.26415th
- Carries54
- Rush yards22120th
- Yards per carry4.124th
- EPA per rush−0.07524th
- Rush success rate38.9%25th
- Targets / catches32 / 22
- Receiving yards26814th
- Target share29.6%6th
- Yards per target8.441st
- EPA per target+0.15953rd
- Targets / catches12 / 9
- Receiving yards6034th
- Target share11.1%29th
- Yards per target5.033rd
- EPA per target−0.26030th
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Texans | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateTexans offense vs Titans defense | 42.6%18th | 42.7%14th |
| Early-down success rateTitans offense vs Texans defense | 37.8%4th | 39.9%25th |
| Early-down EPA per playTexans offense vs Titans defense | +0.0859th | +0.08224th |
| Early-down EPA per playTitans offense vs Texans defense | −0.01611th | −0.12327th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateTexans offense vs Titans defense | 35.8%19th | 36.5%9th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateTitans offense vs Texans defense | 37.7%13th | 35.4%21st |
| 3rd-down EPA per playTexans offense vs Titans defense | −0.17223rd | −0.18310th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playTitans offense vs Texans defense | +0.21927th | −0.00612th |
| Red-zone TD rateTexans offense vs Titans defense | 53.3%21st | 66.7%20th |
| Red-zone TD rateTitans offense vs Texans defense | 63.6%17th | 50.0%23rd |
| Red-zone success rateTexans offense vs Titans defense | 36.4%25th | 46.9%21st |
| Red-zone success rateTitans offense vs Texans defense | 33.3%4th | 41.5%16th |
On early downs the Texans succeed on 42.6% of plays (18th) against a Titans defense that allows 42.7% (14th); on 3rd down they convert 35.8% (19th) against a defense allowing 36.5% (9th). On early downs the Titans succeed on 39.9% of plays (25th) against a Texans defense that allows 37.8% (4th); on 3rd down they convert 35.4% (21st) against a defense allowing 37.7% (13th). The Texans score touchdowns on 53.3% of red-zone trips (21st). The Titans score touchdowns on 50.0% of red-zone trips (23rd).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Texans | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | DeMeco Ryans | Robert Saleh |
| Offensive coordinator | Nick Caley | Brian Daboll |
| Defensive coordinator | Matt Burke | Gus Bradley |
| Offense tendencies | Texans | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.1% | −1.9%15th-highest | −8.5%28th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.6% | 66.8%6th-highest | 63.0%12th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 55.1% | 63.2%5th-highest | 57.1%12th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 60.0% | 67.2%11th-highest | 69.3%4th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.2% | 6.4%11th-highest | 13.5%3rd-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 32.8 | 32.815th-slowest | 30.830th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.4% | 20.6%3rd | 10.9%29th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.8% | 12.3%3rd | 7.8%24th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.2% | 4.8%31st | 8.8%16th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 5.9% | 7.2%23rd | 4.4%9th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.88% | 0.80%6th | 1.39%12th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 60.9 | 62.510th-most | 53.831st-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 63.2% | 5 of 9 | 2 of 2 |
| Defense | Texans | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 5.9% | 8.8%2nd | 6.3%14th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.4% | 23.4%32nd | 19.3%26th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.8% | 12.4%29th | 10.9%24th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.2% | 7.6%9th | 7.5%8th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.88% | 1.18%26th | 0.81%29th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 16.1% | 18.2%9th | 14.2%21st |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 16.1% | 16.2%15th | 12.6%6th |
The Texans run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−1.9% pass rate over expected, 15th-highest), while the Titans sit at −8.5% (28th-highest). In neutral situations the Texans take 32.8 seconds between snaps and the Titans 30.8, so the Titans play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Texans have gone for it 5 of 9 times and the Titans 2 of 2.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 22 times since 2015: the Texans won 13 and the Titans 9. In the most recent meeting (November 16, 2025), the Texans won 16-13; the Texans averaged −0.067 EPA per play; the Titans averaged −0.120 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2025 | Texans 16, Titans 13 Texans won | Texans -5.5 Titans covered | 37.5 under | Texans −0.067 · Titans −0.120 |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Titans 0, Texans 26 Texans won | Texans -7.5 Texans covered | 39.5 under | Texans +0.150 · Titans −0.340 |
| Jan 5, 2025 | Texans 23, Titans 14 Texans won | Titans -2.5 Texans covered | 36.5 over | Texans +0.063 · Titans −0.185 |
| Nov 24, 2024 | Titans 32, Texans 27 Titans won | Texans -8 Titans covered | 40.5 over | Texans −0.227 · Titans −0.096 |
| Dec 31, 2023 | Titans 3, Texans 26 Texans won | Texans -5 Texans covered | 44 under | Texans +0.003 · Titans −0.429 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
Houston Texans
- Houston Texans team stats
- New York Giants 27, Houston Texans 21 (Oct 25)
- Houston Texans 34, Jacksonville Jaguars 31 (Oct 18)
- Dallas Cowboys 34, Houston Texans 30 (Oct 4)
Tennessee Titans
- Tennessee Titans team stats
- Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals (Nov 1)
- Cleveland Browns 27, Tennessee Titans 24 (Oct 25)
- Tennessee Titans 26, Indianapolis Colts 20 (Oct 18)
- Tennessee Titans 18, Baltimore Ravens 24 (Oct 4)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on October 11, 2026
- Philadelphia Eagles 17, Jacksonville Jaguars 19 (Oct 11)
- Chicago Bears 7, Green Bay Packers 31 (Oct 11)
- Cincinnati Bengals 31, Miami Dolphins 24 (Oct 11)
- Las Vegas Raiders 17, New England Patriots 45 (Oct 11)
- Minnesota Vikings 23, New Orleans Saints 13 (Oct 11)
- Cleveland Browns 12, New York Jets 17 (Oct 11)
- Indianapolis Colts 22, Pittsburgh Steelers 34 (Oct 11)
- New York Giants 27, Washington Commanders 27 (Oct 11)
- Denver Broncos 23, Los Angeles Chargers 17 (Oct 11)
- Detroit Lions 45, Arizona Cardinals 21 (Oct 11)
- San Francisco 49ers 32, Seattle Seahawks 29 (Oct 11)
- Baltimore Ravens 30, Atlanta Falcons 23 (Oct 11)
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