Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets Final — October 25, 2026
MIAStarting quarterbacksexpected startersNYJ
MIAOffense2026 regular season to dateNYJMIADefenseNYJMIARecent formNYJMIAHome and roadseason to dateNYJInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
MIARest & travelNYJMIAKey injuriesNYJAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 34 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Dolphins (0-5) visited the Jets (2-4) at MetLife Stadium on Sunday, October 25 at 1:00 PM ET in Week 7.
The Dolphins have the 28th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 29th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Jets have the 19th-ranked offense and the 8th-ranked defense. When the Dolphins have the ball, a 28th-ranked offense (−0.115 EPA per play) meets a 8th-ranked defense (−0.049 allowed); when the Jets have it, a 19th-ranked offense (−0.027) meets a 29th-ranked defense (+0.108 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Dolphins offense is at 37.6% (29th) and the Jets offense at 43.8% (15th). Through the air, the Dolphins average −0.121 EPA per dropback (26th) against a Jets pass defense ranked 19th; the Jets average +0.060 (18th) against a Dolphins pass defense ranked 31st. The Dolphins score 14.0 points per game (31st) and allow 26.4 (24th); the Jets score 18.7 (27th) and allow 20.3 (7th).
Over the last five games, the Dolphins rank 28th on offense and 28th on defense by EPA per play; the Jets rank 23rd and 12th.
Geno Smith has a 47.4% success rate (15th of 34 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Malik Willis' 38.8% (29th). Per dropback, Smith is at +0.060 EPA to Willis' −0.129, with 7 touchdown passes and 1 interception to Willis' 2 and 4.
The Dolphins are 0-5 and 1-3-1 against the spread; their last game was a 31-24 loss to the Bengals. The Jets are 2-4 and 3-1-2 against the spread; their last game was a 26-19 loss to the Patriots. The Dolphins are coming off a bye.
The Jets closed as 3.5-point favorites at home against the Dolphins. The spread opened at Jets -5.5. The total closed at 39.5, down from 40.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Dolphins +168, Jets -205) prices the Dolphins at 36% and the Jets at 64%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Miami Dolphins 28, New York Jets 25
Miami Dolphins won by 3.
- Against the closing spread (New York Jets -3.5): Miami Dolphins covered.
- Combined score 53 vs the closing total of 39.5: Over.
- Miami Dolphins closed at +168 on the moneyline (a 36% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 4 points toward Miami Dolphins.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Miami Dolphins 36%, New York Jets 64%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q2 12:06 — New York Jets ball, 1st & 10 at MIA 217-G.Smith pass short middle intended for 85-M.Taylor INTERCEPTED by 16-M.Taaffe at MIA 15. 16-M.Taaffe to MIA 15 for no gain (89-J.Ruckert).Miami Dolphins 44% → 58% (+14 pts) · Drive 4 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 7:34 — New York Jets ball, 3rd & 7 at NYJ 30(Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep middle to 11-O.Cooper to MIA 10 for 60 yards (3-C.Johnson). Penalty on MIA-8-J.Brents, Defensive Holding, declined.New York Jets 12% → 22% (+10 pts) · Drive 11 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 9:43 — New York Jets ball, 3rd & 3 at MIA 37-G.Smith sacked at MIA 15 for -12 yards (44-C.Robinson).Miami Dolphins 59% → 72% (+13 pts) · Drive 13 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 4:55 — Miami Dolphins ball, 2nd & 7 at MIA 372-M.Willis pass short left to 7-C.Douglas for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on NYJ-21-B.Stephens, Roughing the Passer, 8 yards, enforced between downs.Miami Dolphins 80% → 94% (+14 pts) · Drive 16 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 3:30 — New York Jets ball, 3rd & 4 at MIA 12(Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 85-M.Taylor for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.New York Jets 10% → 21% (+11 pts) · Drive 17 in Drive X-Ray
Miami Dolphins won after falling as low as 36% (Q1 14:55).
Game DNA
| Dolphins | Points added | Jets |
|---|---|---|
| +2.1 | Passingdropbacks | -5.2 |
| -2.3 | Rushingdesigned runs | -1.4 |
| +11.9 | Explosive plays6 plays · 9 plays | +19.9 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -4.9 |
| -0.5 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -0.9 |
| +0.4 | Penalties5 for 26 yds · 6 for 36 yds | -0.2 |
| +5.8 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 3 of 3 · 3 of 4 | +5.9 |
| +17.5 | All plays | +13.3 |
The biggest single gap: explosive plays, worth about 8.0 points to New York Jets. The final margin was 3.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
New York Jets closed as the market favourite at 64% and lost.
The line moved toward Miami Dolphins before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Dolphins +5.5 (-109)
Dolphins +3.5 (-105)
Jets -242 68%
Jets -205 64%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
Malik Washington has 262 receiving yards for the Dolphins (37th of 79 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 28.1%. Ollie Gordon II has 236 rushing yards on 47 carries (28th of 40 qualified running backs). Garrett Wilson has 418 receiving yards for the Jets (14th of 79 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 28.6%. Braelon Allen has 314 rushing yards on 74 carries (18th of 40 qualified running backs).
- Carries47
- Rush yards23628th
- Yards per carry5.06th
- EPA per rush+0.0894th
- Rush success rate34.0%29th
- Targets / catches36 / 23
- Receiving yards26237th
- Target share28.1%10th
- Yards per target7.355th
- EPA per target−0.01267th
- Targets / catches17 / 13
- Receiving yards12732nd
- Target share15.3%20th
- Yards per target7.516th
- EPA per target+0.17026th
- Carries74
- Rush yards31418th
- Yards per carry4.214th
- EPA per rush−0.07823rd
- Rush success rate39.2%21st
- Targets / catches48 / 35
- Receiving yards41814th
- Target share28.6%9th
- Yards per target8.732nd
- EPA per target+0.50919th
- Targets / catches24 / 15
- Receiving yards15825th
- Target share14.3%22nd
- Yards per target6.623rd
- EPA per target−0.24631st
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Dolphins | Jets |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateDolphins offense vs Jets defense | 34.5%31st | 45.1%23rd |
| Early-down success rateJets offense vs Dolphins defense | 46.8%30th | 44.9%14th |
| Early-down EPA per playDolphins offense vs Jets defense | −0.15730th | −0.02210th |
| Early-down EPA per playJets offense vs Dolphins defense | +0.02421st | +0.00514th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateDolphins offense vs Jets defense | 41.3%13th | 38.2%12th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateJets offense vs Dolphins defense | 53.6%31st | 35.5%25th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playDolphins offense vs Jets defense | +0.1957th | −0.05116th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playJets offense vs Dolphins defense | +0.45632nd | −0.14023rd |
| Red-zone TD rateDolphins offense vs Jets defense | 50.0%25th | 52.4%9th |
| Red-zone TD rateJets offense vs Dolphins defense | 63.6%20th | 42.9%32nd |
| Red-zone success rateDolphins offense vs Jets defense | 43.2%14th | 44.1%20th |
| Red-zone success rateJets offense vs Dolphins defense | 42.4%16th | 33.3%31st |
On early downs the Dolphins succeed on 34.5% of plays (31st) against a Jets defense that allows 45.1% (23rd); on 3rd down they convert 41.3% (13th) against a defense allowing 38.2% (12th). On early downs the Jets succeed on 44.9% of plays (14th) against a Dolphins defense that allows 46.8% (30th); on 3rd down they convert 35.5% (25th) against a defense allowing 53.6% (31st). The Dolphins score touchdowns on 50.0% of red-zone trips (25th). The Jets score touchdowns on 42.9% of red-zone trips (32nd).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Dolphins | Jets |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Jeff Hafley | Aaron Glenn |
| Offensive coordinator | Bobby Slowik | Frank Reich |
| Defensive coordinator | Sean Duggan | Brian Duker |
| Offense tendencies | Dolphins | Jets |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −1.6% | −11.4%32nd-highest | −3.2%22nd-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 61.4% | 58.8%22nd-highest | 59.0%21st-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 55.8% | 52.7%25th-highest | 53.6%20th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 61.5% | 59.0%20th-highest | 59.1%19th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.4% | 2.2%29th-highest | 3.5%24th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 32.9 | 34.17th-slowest | 34.08th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.2% | 13.0%23rd | 16.2%15th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.5% | 8.9%14th | 8.1%20th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.3% | 11.7%7th | 11.3%8th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.1% | 8.7%27th | 9.2%30th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.92% | 2.92%28th | 1.15%8th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 61.5 | 54.631st-most | 57.828th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 60.4% | 3 of 4 | 5 of 7 |
| Defense | Dolphins | Jets |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.1% | 2.5%32nd | 7.7%6th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.2% | 16.3%19th | 12.2%6th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.5% | 8.5%17th | 8.3%14th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.3% | 9.0%15th | 9.7%20th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.92% | 1.38%27th | 1.85%19th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.9% | 13.4%25th | 15.3%17th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.9% | 15.0%15th | 18.1%28th |
The Dolphins run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−11.4% pass rate over expected, 32nd-highest), while the Jets sit at −3.2% (22nd-highest). In neutral situations the Dolphins take 34.1 seconds between snaps and the Jets 34.0, so the Jets play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Dolphins have gone for it 3 of 4 times and the Jets 5 of 7.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 22 times since 2015: the Dolphins won 16 and the Jets 6. In the most recent meeting (December 7, 2025), the Dolphins won 34-10; the Dolphins averaged +0.207 EPA per play; the Jets averaged −0.453 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | Dolphins 34, Jets 10 Dolphins won | Dolphins -2.5 Dolphins covered | 41.5 over | Dolphins +0.207 · Jets −0.453 |
| Sep 29, 2025 | Jets 21, Dolphins 27 Dolphins won | Dolphins -2.5 Dolphins covered | 44.5 over | Dolphins +0.130 · Jets +0.159 |
| Jan 5, 2025 | Dolphins 20, Jets 32 Jets won | Jets -1.5 Jets covered | 39.5 over | Dolphins −0.128 · Jets +0.060 |
| Dec 8, 2024 | Jets 26, Dolphins 32 Dolphins won | Dolphins -6.5 Jets covered | 45 over | Dolphins +0.232 · Jets +0.232 |
| Dec 17, 2023 | Jets 0, Dolphins 30 Dolphins won | Dolphins -7.5 Dolphins covered | 36 under | Dolphins +0.108 · Jets −0.566 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
Miami Dolphins
- Miami Dolphins team stats
- New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (Nov 1)
- Cincinnati Bengals 31, Miami Dolphins 24 (Oct 11)
- Miami Dolphins 10, Minnesota Vikings 15 (Oct 4)
- Kansas City Chiefs 24, Miami Dolphins 10 (Sep 27)
New York Jets
- New York Jets team stats
- Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets (Nov 1)
- New York Jets 19, New England Patriots 26 (Oct 18)
- Cleveland Browns 12, New York Jets 17 (Oct 11)
- New York Jets 12, Chicago Bears 23 (Oct 4)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on October 25, 2026
- Pittsburgh Steelers 16, New Orleans Saints 10 (Oct 25)
- San Francisco 49ers 20, Atlanta Falcons 29 (Oct 25)
- Cincinnati Bengals 35, Baltimore Ravens 13 (Oct 25)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 43, Carolina Panthers 13 (Oct 25)
- New York Giants 27, Houston Texans 21 (Oct 25)
- Indianapolis Colts 10, Minnesota Vikings 16 (Oct 25)
- Cleveland Browns 27, Tennessee Titans 24 (Oct 25)
- Denver Broncos 30, Arizona Cardinals 16 (Oct 25)
- Green Bay Packers 17, Detroit Lions 20 (Oct 25)
- Los Angeles Rams 35, Las Vegas Raiders 21 (Oct 25)
- Kansas City Chiefs 3, Seattle Seahawks 20 (Oct 25)
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