Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders Preview & Odds — October 4, 2026
Matchup preview
The Chiefs (3-0) visit the Raiders (3-0) at Allegiant Stadium on Sunday, October 4 at 4:25 PM ET in Week 4.
The Chiefs have the 4th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 6th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Raiders have the 17th-ranked offense and the 2nd-ranked defense. When the Chiefs have the ball, a 4th-ranked offense (+0.184 EPA per play) meets a 2nd-ranked defense (−0.177 allowed); when the Raiders have it, a 17th-ranked offense (−0.007) meets a 6th-ranked defense (−0.092 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Chiefs offense is at 50.3% (5th) and the Raiders offense at 40.2% (24th). Through the air, the Chiefs average +0.249 EPA per dropback (7th) against a Raiders pass defense ranked 1st; the Raiders average +0.148 (12th) against a Chiefs pass defense ranked 5th. The Chiefs score 29.3 points per game (7th) and allow 16.7 (3rd); the Raiders score 29.3 (7th) and allow 18.0 (8th).
Patrick Mahomes has a 51.4% success rate (6th of 34 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Kirk Cousins' 47.5% (15th). Per dropback, Mahomes is at +0.249 EPA to Cousins' +0.170, with 7 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions to Cousins' 9 and 3.
The Chiefs are 3-0 and 2-1 against the spread; their last game was a 24-10 win over the Dolphins. The Raiders are 3-0 and 3-0 against the spread; their last game was a 35-27 win over the Saints.
The Chiefs are 4.5-point road favorites, with the Raiders getting the points at home. The spread opened at Chiefs -5.5. The total is 47.5, up from 46.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the moneyline (Chiefs -220, Raiders +180) prices the Chiefs at 66% and the Raiders at 34%.
Built from public team and player data; ranks are league-wide and update daily until kickoff.
Tale of the tape
Chiefs2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Quarterback matchup
- Dropbacks109
- Success rate51.4%6th
- EPA per dropback+0.2498th
- Completion %68.4%10th
- CPOE+3.216th
- Yards per attempt8.36th
- TD–INT7–2
- Sack rate3.7%5th
- Dropbacks100
- Success rate47.5%15th
- EPA per dropback+0.17012th
- Completion %67.4%14th
- CPOE+4.112th
- Yards per attempt7.216th
- TD–INT9–3
- Sack rate5.0%11th
Primary passer = most dropbacks over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among 34 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game). Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
Players to watch
Rashee Rice leads the Chiefs wide receivers with 190 receiving yards (18th of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 18.7%. Kenneth Walker III has 360 rushing yards on 65 carries (1st of 44 qualified running backs). Tre Tucker leads the Raiders wide receivers with 189 receiving yards (19th of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 17.0%. Ashton Jeanty has 206 rushing yards on 63 carries (10th of 44 qualified running backs).
- Carries65
- Rush yards3601st
- Yards per carry5.55th
- EPA per rush+0.0923rd
- Rush success rate47.7%8th
- Targets / catches17 / 13
- Receiving yards19018th
- Target share18.7%44th
- Yards per target11.215th
- EPA per target+0.21751st
- Targets / catches18 / 14
- Receiving yards2312nd
- Target share19.8%9th
- Yards per target12.82nd
- EPA per target+0.9222nd
- Carries63
- Rush yards20610th
- Yards per carry3.335th
- EPA per rush−0.31039th
- Rush success rate28.6%40th
- Targets / catches15 / 11
- Receiving yards18919th
- Target share17.0%56th
- Yards per target12.65th
- EPA per target+0.64718th
- Targets / catches14 / 12
- Receiving yards8722nd
- Target share15.9%15th
- Yards per target6.226th
- EPA per target+0.33117th
Lead back = most carries and lead receivers = most targets over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Chiefs | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateChiefs offense vs Raiders defense | 49.3%4th | 42.7%14th |
| Early-down success rateRaiders offense vs Chiefs defense | 36.2%4th | 38.7%28th |
| Early-down EPA per playChiefs offense vs Raiders defense | +0.07810th | −0.04111th |
| Early-down EPA per playRaiders offense vs Chiefs defense | −0.0519th | −0.08124th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateChiefs offense vs Raiders defense | 47.2%7th | 41.0%17th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateRaiders offense vs Chiefs defense | 37.5%10th | 43.2%11th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playChiefs offense vs Raiders defense | +0.3703rd | −0.5033rd |
| 3rd-down EPA per playRaiders offense vs Chiefs defense | −0.05814th | +0.3375th |
| Red-zone TD rateChiefs offense vs Raiders defense | 60.0%17th | 77.8%27th |
| Red-zone TD rateRaiders offense vs Chiefs defense | 57.1%12th | 61.5%16th |
| Red-zone success rateChiefs offense vs Raiders defense | 32.5%27th | 56.5%30th |
| Red-zone success rateRaiders offense vs Chiefs defense | 45.0%18th | 27.0%30th |
On early downs the Chiefs succeed on 49.3% of plays (4th) against a Raiders defense that allows 42.7% (14th); on 3rd down they convert 47.2% (7th) against a defense allowing 41.0% (17th). On early downs the Raiders succeed on 38.7% of plays (28th) against a Chiefs defense that allows 36.2% (4th); on 3rd down they convert 43.2% (11th) against a defense allowing 37.5% (10th). The Chiefs score touchdowns on 60.0% of red-zone trips (17th). The Raiders score touchdowns on 61.5% of red-zone trips (16th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Chiefs | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Andy Reid | Klint Kubiak |
| Offensive coordinator | Eric Bieniemy | Andrew Janocko |
| Defensive coordinator | Steve Spagnuolo | Rob Leonard |
| Offense tendencies | Chiefs | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.1% | 3.7%5th-highest | −2.6%20th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.4% | 57.1%22nd-highest | 55.4%26th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 54.9% | 54.7%17th-highest | 50.0%26th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 58.8% | 59.7%17th-highest | 48.4%27th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.1% | 0.5%32nd-highest | 3.3%24th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 33.0 | 32.619th-slowest | 34.76th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.3% | 19.0%5th | 15.8%14th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.6% | 9.5%13th | 7.4%25th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.2% | 12.2%6th | 7.3%21st |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.0% | 3.7%5th | 4.9%9th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.90% | 1.05%8th | 1.63%18th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 60.6 | 63.710th-most | 60.714th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 62.7% | 5 of 5 | 3 of 6 |
| Defense | Chiefs | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.0% | 3.7%26th | 8.8%3rd |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.3% | 7.7%2nd | 14.6%13th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.6% | 4.8%4th | 7.8%12th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.2% | 10.4%20th | 8.7%13th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.90% | 2.84%8th | 4.89%1st |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.8% | 11.1%28th | 23.0%2nd |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.8% | 12.8%5th | 17.0%22nd |
The Chiefs pass more often than down, distance and score would suggest (3.7% pass rate over expected, 5th-highest), while the Raiders sit at −2.6% (20th-highest). In neutral situations the Chiefs take 32.6 seconds between snaps and the Raiders 34.7, so the Chiefs play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Chiefs have gone for it 5 of 5 times and the Raiders 3 of 6.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest. Coaching staff: Wikipedia contributors (CC BY-SA 4.0).
Injury report
No starters listed out, doubtful or questionable.
No starters listed out, doubtful or questionable.
Starters (and the primary passer) on the game's official injury report, as of the latest report captured before kickoff.
Travel and schedule
The Chiefs have 7 days between games and the Raiders 7. The Chiefs travel about 1,149 miles, moving their body clock 2 hours back. It is their 2nd straight game away from home.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Recent form and rest
ChiefsRaidersLast five results this season, oldest to newest. Against-the-spread and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 22 times since 2015: the Chiefs won 18 and the Raiders 4. In the most recent meeting (January 4, 2026), the Raiders won 14-12; the Chiefs averaged −0.468 EPA per play; the Raiders averaged −0.490 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2026 | Chiefs 12, Raiders 14 Raiders won | Chiefs -3.5 Raiders covered | 36.5 under | Chiefs −0.468 · Raiders −0.490 |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Raiders 0, Chiefs 31 Chiefs won | Chiefs -13.5 Chiefs covered | 44.5 under | Chiefs +0.225 · Raiders −0.669 |
| Nov 29, 2024 | Raiders 17, Chiefs 19 Chiefs won | Chiefs -13.5 Raiders covered | 42 under | Chiefs −0.043 · Raiders +0.078 |
| Oct 27, 2024 | Chiefs 27, Raiders 20 Chiefs won | Chiefs -9 Raiders covered | 42 over | Chiefs +0.175 · Raiders −0.058 |
| Dec 25, 2023 | Raiders 20, Chiefs 14 Raiders won | Chiefs -11 Raiders covered | 40.5 under | Chiefs −0.251 · Raiders −0.180 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the nflverse closing lines.
Odds and line movement
Chiefs -5.5 (-110)
Chiefs -4.5 (-110)
Raiders +197 32%
Raiders +180 34%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. The Now column updates from our odds board. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Best available prices on Oct 2
- Chiefs -5+110ProphetX
- Raiders +5-113Bally Bet
- Over 46.5-122Polymarket
- Under 46.5+117Polymarket
- Chiefs-194Novig
- Raiders+188FanDuel
Dig deeper
Teams
Kansas City Chiefs
- Kansas City Chiefs team stats
- Kansas City Chiefs 24, Miami Dolphins 10 (Sep 27)
- Indianapolis Colts 30, Kansas City Chiefs 33 (Sep 20)
- Denver Broncos 10, Kansas City Chiefs 31 (Sep 14)
Las Vegas Raiders
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