Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins Final — October 11, 2026
CINStarting quarterbacksexpected startersMIA
CINOffense2026 regular season to dateMIACINDefenseMIACINRecent formMIACINHome and roadseason to dateMIAInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
CINRest & travelMIACINKey injuriesMIAAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 32 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Bengals (2-2) visited the Dolphins (0-4) at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday, October 11 at 1:00 PM ET in Week 5.
The Bengals have the 10th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 10th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have the 30th-ranked offense and the 28th-ranked defense. When the Bengals have the ball, a 10th-ranked offense (+0.055 EPA per play) meets a 28th-ranked defense (+0.099 allowed); when the Dolphins have it, a 30th-ranked offense (−0.141) meets a 10th-ranked defense (−0.029 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Bengals offense is at 44.9% (12th) and the Dolphins offense at 34.8% (31st). Through the air, the Bengals average +0.120 EPA per dropback (14th) against a Dolphins pass defense ranked 30th; the Dolphins average −0.113 (27th) against a Bengals pass defense ranked 10th. The Bengals score 24.2 points per game (14th) and allow 21.2 (13th); the Dolphins score 11.5 (32nd) and allow 25.2 (21st).
Joe Burrow has a 49.1% success rate (10th of 32 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Malik Willis' 37.6% (30th). Per dropback, Burrow is at +0.120 EPA to Willis' −0.113, with 7 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions to Willis' 1 and 2.
The Bengals are 2-2 and 2-2 against the spread; their last game was a 22-17 loss to the Jaguars. The Dolphins are 0-4 and 1-3 against the spread; their last game was a 15-10 loss to the Vikings.
The Bengals closed as 7-point road favorites, with the Dolphins getting the points at home. The spread opened at Bengals -7.5. The total closed at 44.5, up from 43.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Bengals -350, Dolphins +275) prices the Bengals at 74% and the Dolphins at 26%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Cincinnati Bengals 31, Miami Dolphins 24
Cincinnati Bengals won by 7.
- Against the closing spread (Miami Dolphins +7): push.
- Combined score 55 vs the closing total of 44.5: Over.
- Cincinnati Bengals closed at -350 on the moneyline (a 74% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 3 points toward Miami Dolphins.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Cincinnati Bengals 74%, Miami Dolphins 26%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q2 10:32 — Miami Dolphins ball, 2nd & 10 at MID 50(Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass short left intended for 21-K.Coleman INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Battle (53-B.Mafe) at CIN 42. 27-J.Battle to CIN 49 for 7 yards (55-A.Brewer; 71-J.Savaiinaea).Cincinnati Bengals 82% → 89% (+6 pts) · Drive 6 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 7:03 — Cincinnati Bengals ball, 2nd & 6 at MIA 10(Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 30-C.Brown to MIA 7 for 3 yards (3-C.Johnson). FUMBLES (3-C.Johnson), RECOVERED by MIA-44-C.Robinson at MIA 7. 44-C.Robinson to MIA 18 for 11 yards (1-J.Chase). FUMBLES (1-JMiami Dolphins 9% → 16% (+7 pts) · Drive 7 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| Bengals | Points added | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| +2.6 | Passingdropbacks | -1.9 |
| +0.2 | Rushingdesigned runs | -4.3 |
| +6.0 | Explosive plays3 plays · 9 plays | +15.5 |
| -5.5 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 3 giveaways | -11.9 |
| +3.4 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +1.8 |
| +2.5 | Penalties4 for 39 yds · 6 for 30 yds | +2.8 |
| +5.4 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 3 of 5 · 3 of 4 | +0.5 |
| +14.5 | All plays | +2.4 |
The biggest single gap: explosive plays, worth about 9.5 points to Miami Dolphins. The final margin was 7.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Cincinnati Bengals closed as the market favourite at 74% and won.
The line moved toward Miami Dolphins before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Bengals -7.5 (-110)
Bengals -7 (-111)
Dolphins +325 23%
Dolphins +275 26%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
Tee Higgins has 401 receiving yards for the Bengals (4th of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 25.2%. Chase Brown has 207 rushing yards on 58 carries (22nd of 46 qualified running backs). Malik Washington has 219 receiving yards for the Dolphins (25th of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 27.5%. De'Von Achane has 127 rushing yards on 34 carries (35th of 46 qualified running backs).
- Carries58
- Rush yards20722nd
- Yards per carry3.634th
- EPA per rush−0.11530th
- Rush success rate37.9%27th
- Targets / catches39 / 25
- Receiving yards4014th
- Target share25.2%18th
- Yards per target10.321st
- EPA per target+0.63219th
- Targets / catches15 / 11
- Receiving yards15514th
- Target share12.1%27th
- Yards per target10.34th
- EPA per target+1.0151st
- Carries34
- Rush yards12735th
- Yards per carry3.728th
- EPA per rush−0.17137th
- Rush success rate35.3%33rd
- Targets / catches28 / 17
- Receiving yards21925th
- Target share27.5%11th
- Yards per target7.850th
- EPA per target−0.04973rd
- Targets / catches12 / 9
- Receiving yards9027th
- Target share14.1%21st
- Yards per target7.513th
- EPA per target+0.22016th
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Bengals | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateBengals offense vs Dolphins defense | 44.2%16th | 45.4%22nd |
| Early-down success rateDolphins offense vs Bengals defense | 42.0%12th | 31.8%31st |
| Early-down EPA per playBengals offense vs Dolphins defense | +0.02315th | +0.02921st |
| Early-down EPA per playDolphins offense vs Bengals defense | +0.02720th | −0.14532nd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateBengals offense vs Dolphins defense | 45.3%7th | 48.8%28th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateDolphins offense vs Bengals defense | 44.0%23rd | 38.0%16th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playBengals offense vs Dolphins defense | +0.0469th | +0.40030th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playDolphins offense vs Bengals defense | +0.04621st | +0.1088th |
| Red-zone TD rateBengals offense vs Dolphins defense | 50.0%23rd | 64.7%19th |
| Red-zone TD rateDolphins offense vs Bengals defense | 30.8%3rd | 37.5%32nd |
| Red-zone success rateBengals offense vs Dolphins defense | 45.2%10th | 38.3%10th |
| Red-zone success rateDolphins offense vs Bengals defense | 28.6%3rd | 40.7%19th |
On early downs the Bengals succeed on 44.2% of plays (16th) against a Dolphins defense that allows 45.4% (22nd); on 3rd down they convert 45.3% (7th) against a defense allowing 48.8% (28th). On early downs the Dolphins succeed on 31.8% of plays (31st) against a Bengals defense that allows 42.0% (12th); on 3rd down they convert 38.0% (16th) against a defense allowing 44.0% (23rd). The Bengals score touchdowns on 50.0% of red-zone trips (23rd). The Dolphins score touchdowns on 37.5% of red-zone trips (32nd).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Bengals | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Zac Taylor | Jeff Hafley |
| Offensive coordinator | Dan Pitcher | Bobby Slowik |
| Defensive coordinator | Al Golden | Sean Duggan |
| Offense tendencies | Bengals | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.1% | 5.6%1st-highest | −9.0%29th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.6% | 69.2%2nd-highest | 60.5%18th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 55.1% | 64.7%1st-highest | 54.5%16th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 60.0% | 72.9%2nd-highest | 57.6%19th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.2% | 6.1%12th-highest | 1.4%29th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 32.8 | 31.924th-slowest | 34.45th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.4% | 19.8%6th | 13.8%22nd |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.8% | 8.6%18th | 8.6%19th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.2% | 10.5%10th | 8.5%18th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 5.9% | 5.3%14th | 8.7%27th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.88% | 1.62%15th | 2.38%22nd |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 60.9 | 61.815th-most | 52.532nd-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 63.2% | 2 of 5 | 2 of 3 |
| Defense | Bengals | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 5.9% | 8.7%3rd | 3.2%28th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.4% | 17.8%22nd | 20.0%28th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.8% | 10.3%22nd | 10.0%20th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.2% | 10.7%24th | 9.5%15th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.88% | 2.12%14th | 1.31%22nd |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 16.1% | 17.5%12th | 13.7%25th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 16.1% | 18.7%28th | 15.0%10th |
The Bengals pass more often than down, distance and score would suggest (5.6% pass rate over expected, 1st-highest), while the Dolphins sit at −9.0% (29th-highest). In neutral situations the Bengals take 31.9 seconds between snaps and the Dolphins 34.4, so the Bengals play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Bengals have gone for it 2 of 5 times and the Dolphins 2 of 3.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 6 times since 2015: the Bengals won 4 and the Dolphins 2. In the most recent meeting (December 21, 2025), the Bengals won 45-21; the Bengals averaged +0.372 EPA per play; the Dolphins averaged −0.057 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2025 | Bengals 45, Dolphins 21 Bengals won | Bengals -3.5 Bengals covered | 48.5 over | Bengals +0.372 · Dolphins −0.057 |
| Sep 29, 2022 | Dolphins 15, Bengals 27 Bengals won | Bengals -4 Bengals covered | 48.5 under | Bengals +0.114 · Dolphins −0.038 |
| Dec 6, 2020 | Bengals 7, Dolphins 19 Dolphins won | Dolphins -10.5 Dolphins covered | 43 under | Bengals −0.243 · Dolphins −0.014 |
| Dec 22, 2019 | Bengals 35, Dolphins 38 Dolphins won | Bengals -1.5 Dolphins covered | 46 over | Bengals +0.056 · Dolphins +0.179 |
| Oct 7, 2018 | Dolphins 17, Bengals 27 Bengals won | Bengals -6 Bengals covered | 47.5 under | Bengals −0.068 · Dolphins −0.213 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
Cincinnati Bengals
- Cincinnati Bengals team stats
- Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals (Nov 1)
- Cincinnati Bengals 35, Baltimore Ravens 13 (Oct 25)
- Jacksonville Jaguars 22, Cincinnati Bengals 17 (Oct 4)
- Cincinnati Bengals 27, Pittsburgh Steelers 30 (Sep 27)
Miami Dolphins
- Miami Dolphins team stats
- New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (Nov 1)
- Miami Dolphins 28, New York Jets 25 (Oct 25)
- Miami Dolphins 10, Minnesota Vikings 15 (Oct 4)
- Kansas City Chiefs 24, Miami Dolphins 10 (Sep 27)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on October 11, 2026
- Philadelphia Eagles 17, Jacksonville Jaguars 19 (Oct 11)
- Chicago Bears 7, Green Bay Packers 31 (Oct 11)
- Las Vegas Raiders 17, New England Patriots 45 (Oct 11)
- Minnesota Vikings 23, New Orleans Saints 13 (Oct 11)
- Cleveland Browns 12, New York Jets 17 (Oct 11)
- Indianapolis Colts 22, Pittsburgh Steelers 34 (Oct 11)
- Houston Texans 26, Tennessee Titans 3 (Oct 11)
- New York Giants 27, Washington Commanders 27 (Oct 11)
- Denver Broncos 23, Los Angeles Chargers 17 (Oct 11)
- Detroit Lions 45, Arizona Cardinals 21 (Oct 11)
- San Francisco 49ers 32, Seattle Seahawks 29 (Oct 11)
- Baltimore Ravens 30, Atlanta Falcons 23 (Oct 11)
Dig deeper
Follow the market every day
See every game's current line on the odds board, or check our fully tracked results.
Odds boardTracked results