Detroit Lions vs Arizona Cardinals Final — October 11, 2026
DETStarting quarterbacksexpected startersARI
DETOffense2026 regular season to dateARIDETDefenseARIDETRecent formARIDETHome and roadseason to dateARIInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
DETRest & travelARIDETKey injuriesARIAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 32 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Lions (2-2) visited the Cardinals (1-3) at State Farm Stadium on Sunday, October 11 at 4:25 PM ET in Week 5.
The Lions have the 7th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 31st-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have the 20th-ranked offense and the 25th-ranked defense. When the Lions have the ball, a 7th-ranked offense (+0.144 EPA per play) meets a 25th-ranked defense (+0.067 allowed); when the Cardinals have it, a 20th-ranked offense (−0.029) meets a 31st-ranked defense (+0.183 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Lions offense is at 49.4% (4th) and the Cardinals offense at 46.3% (11th). Through the air, the Lions average +0.242 EPA per dropback (6th) against a Cardinals pass defense ranked 31st; the Cardinals average −0.027 (23rd) against a Lions pass defense ranked 29th. The Lions score 29.8 points per game (5th) and allow 31.8 (31st); the Cardinals score 21.8 (17th) and allow 29.2 (29th).
Jared Goff has a 50.6% success rate (5th of 32 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Jacoby Brissett's 48.2% (12th). Per dropback, Goff is at +0.242 EPA to Brissett's −0.027, with 9 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions to Brissett's 6 and 4.
The Lions are 2-2 and 0-3-1 against the spread; their last game was a 32-26 loss to the Panthers. The Cardinals are 1-3 and 2-2 against the spread; their last game was a 36-24 loss to the Giants.
The Lions closed as 5.5-point road favorites, with the Cardinals getting the points at home. The spread closed where it opened. The total closed at 55.5, up from 54.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Lions -247, Cardinals +200) prices the Lions at 68% and the Cardinals at 32%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Detroit Lions 45, Arizona Cardinals 21
Detroit Lions won by 24.
- Against the closing spread (Arizona Cardinals +5.5): Detroit Lions covered.
- Combined score 66 vs the closing total of 55.5: Over.
- Detroit Lions closed at -247 on the moneyline (a 68% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
The market barely moved from open to close.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Detroit Lions 68%, Arizona Cardinals 32%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 10:18 — Arizona Cardinals ball, 3rd & 11 at ARI 48(Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 17-K.Bourne to DET 30 for 22 yards (21-R.McCreary).Arizona Cardinals 37% → 44% (+7 pts) · Drive 2 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 5:56 — Arizona Cardinals ball, 4th & 1 at DET 9(Shotgun) 14-Mi.Wilson pass short right to 7-J.Brissett to DET 2 for 7 yards (46-J.Campbell; 2-E.Rakestraw).Arizona Cardinals 44% → 50% (+7 pts) · Drive 2 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 2:07 — Arizona Cardinals ball, 4th & 7 at ARI 2112-B.Gillikin punts 44 yards to DET 35, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 85-T.Kennedy to ARI 43 for 22 yards (0-C.Simon; 12-B.Gillikin).Detroit Lions 47% → 52% (+5 pts) · Drive 4 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 13:37 — Detroit Lions ball, 4th & 3 at ARI 47(Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta to ARI 35 for 12 yards (29-D.Burke). PENALTY on ARI-1-Ma.Wilson, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at ARI 35.Detroit Lions 45% → 55% (+10 pts) · Drive 7 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 9:38 — Detroit Lions ball, 4th & 1 at ARI 3816-J.Goff pass short right to 87-S.LaPorta for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Detroit Lions 68% → 79% (+11 pts) · Drive 9 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| Lions | Points added | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| -5.1 | Passingdropbacks | -4.2 |
| -4.0 | Rushingdesigned runs | -4.5 |
| +23.1 | Explosive plays12 plays · 6 plays | +9.6 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -0.2 |
| +3.0 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -7.0 |
| -0.7 | Penalties4 for 31 yds · 5 for 45 yds | -0.8 |
| +7.3 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 4 of 4 · 3 of 4 | +0.8 |
| +23.4 | All plays | -6.3 |
The biggest single gap: explosive plays, worth about 13.5 points to Detroit Lions. The final margin was 24.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Detroit Lions closed as the market favourite at 68% and won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Lions -5.5 (-110)
Lions -5.5 (-108)
Cardinals +200 32%
Cardinals +200 32%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
Amon-Ra St. Brown has 303 receiving yards for the Lions (10th of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 28.9%. Jahmyr Gibbs has 353 rushing yards on 80 carries (5th of 46 qualified running backs). Michael Wilson has 258 receiving yards for the Cardinals (15th of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 29.7%. Jeremiyah Love has 223 rushing yards on 55 carries (19th of 46 qualified running backs).
- Carries80
- Rush yards3535th
- Yards per carry4.414th
- EPA per rush−0.01819th
- Rush success rate47.5%5th
- Targets / catches46 / 31
- Receiving yards30310th
- Target share28.9%7th
- Yards per target6.665th
- EPA per target+0.17652nd
- Targets / catches32 / 22
- Receiving yards2286th
- Target share20.1%7th
- Yards per target7.116th
- EPA per target+0.5836th
- Carries55
- Rush yards22319th
- Yards per carry4.125th
- EPA per rush−0.01317th
- Rush success rate47.3%6th
- Targets / catches44 / 25
- Receiving yards25815th
- Target share29.7%5th
- Yards per target5.974th
- EPA per target−0.14879th
- Targets / catches46 / 33
- Receiving yards2424th
- Target share31.1%2nd
- Yards per target5.329th
- EPA per target+0.19618th
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Lions | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateLions offense vs Cardinals defense | 51.4%3rd | 41.0%9th |
| Early-down success rateCardinals offense vs Lions defense | 46.7%26th | 46.5%8th |
| Early-down EPA per playLions offense vs Cardinals defense | +0.1834th | −0.0279th |
| Early-down EPA per playCardinals offense vs Lions defense | +0.14230th | +0.04512th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateLions offense vs Cardinals defense | 39.1%14th | 45.5%25th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateCardinals offense vs Lions defense | 53.8%31st | 40.0%13th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playLions offense vs Cardinals defense | −0.11820th | +0.67832nd |
| 3rd-down EPA per playCardinals offense vs Lions defense | +0.07622nd | −0.26630th |
| Red-zone TD rateLions offense vs Cardinals defense | 76.5%4th | 71.4%24th |
| Red-zone TD rateCardinals offense vs Lions defense | 82.4%32nd | 57.1%18th |
| Red-zone success rateLions offense vs Cardinals defense | 50.0%6th | 34.7%5th |
| Red-zone success rateCardinals offense vs Lions defense | 48.8%23rd | 35.4%28th |
On early downs the Lions succeed on 51.4% of plays (3rd) against a Cardinals defense that allows 41.0% (9th); on 3rd down they convert 39.1% (14th) against a defense allowing 45.5% (25th). On early downs the Cardinals succeed on 46.5% of plays (8th) against a Lions defense that allows 46.7% (26th); on 3rd down they convert 40.0% (13th) against a defense allowing 53.8% (31st). The Lions score touchdowns on 76.5% of red-zone trips (4th). The Cardinals score touchdowns on 57.1% of red-zone trips (18th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Lions | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Dan Campbell | Mike LaFleur |
| Offensive coordinator | Drew Petzing | Nathaniel Hackett |
| Defensive coordinator | Kelvin Sheppard | Nick Rallis |
| Offense tendencies | Lions | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.1% | 1.3%8th-highest | −0.5%13th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.6% | 65.7%9th-highest | 62.5%14th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 55.1% | 60.4%9th-highest | 57.0%13th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 60.0% | 52.8%24th-highest | 54.8%22nd-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.2% | 6.0%14th-highest | 8.9%8th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 32.8 | 32.718th-slowest | 32.519th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.4% | 13.9%21st | 7.1%32nd |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.8% | 7.8%23rd | 2.6%32nd |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.2% | 13.5%3rd | 5.2%30th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 5.9% | 4.6%10th | 4.3%8th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.88% | 0.38%1st | 1.54%14th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 60.9 | 66.24th-most | 64.86th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 63.2% | 2 of 3 | 3 of 7 |
| Defense | Lions | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 5.9% | 7.8%6th | 6.5%12th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.4% | 19.0%24th | 20.0%28th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.8% | 11.5%27th | 13.0%32nd |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.2% | 13.0%31st | 8.6%12th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.88% | 1.40%21st | 2.61%8th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 16.1% | 18.5%8th | 13.8%24th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 16.1% | 14.9%9th | 14.8%8th |
The Lions pass more often than down, distance and score would suggest (1.3% pass rate over expected, 8th-highest), while the Cardinals sit at −0.5% (13th-highest). In neutral situations the Lions take 32.7 seconds between snaps and the Cardinals 32.5, so the Cardinals play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Lions have gone for it 2 of 3 times and the Cardinals 3 of 7.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 7 times since 2015: the Lions won 5 and the Cardinals 1, with 1 tie. In the most recent meeting (September 22, 2024), the Lions won 20-13; the Cardinals averaged −0.238 EPA per play; the Lions averaged +0.045 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2024 | Lions 20, Cardinals 13 Lions won | Lions -3 Lions covered | 51.5 under | Cardinals −0.238 · Lions +0.045 |
| Dec 19, 2021 | Cardinals 12, Lions 30 Lions won | Cardinals -13 Lions covered | 48 under | Cardinals −0.208 · Lions +0.050 |
| Sep 27, 2020 | Lions 26, Cardinals 23 Lions won | Cardinals -4.5 Lions covered | 55.5 under | Cardinals −0.003 · Lions +0.032 |
| Sep 8, 2019 | Lions 27, Cardinals 27 Tie | Lions -2.5 Cardinals covered | 45.5 over | Cardinals −0.092 · Lions +0.038 |
| Dec 9, 2018 | Lions 17, Cardinals 3 Lions won | Lions -2.5 Lions covered | 40 under | Cardinals −0.330 · Lions −0.205 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
Detroit Lions
- Detroit Lions team stats
- Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (Nov 1)
- Green Bay Packers 17, Detroit Lions 20 (Oct 25)
- Detroit Lions 26, Carolina Panthers 32 (Oct 4)
- Detroit Lions 31, Buffalo Bills 41 (Sep 17)
Arizona Cardinals
- Arizona Cardinals team stats
- Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys (Nov 1)
- Denver Broncos 30, Arizona Cardinals 16 (Oct 25)
- Arizona Cardinals 18, Los Angeles Rams 16 (Oct 18)
- Arizona Cardinals 24, New York Giants 36 (Oct 4)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on October 11, 2026
- Philadelphia Eagles 17, Jacksonville Jaguars 19 (Oct 11)
- Chicago Bears 7, Green Bay Packers 31 (Oct 11)
- Cincinnati Bengals 31, Miami Dolphins 24 (Oct 11)
- Las Vegas Raiders 17, New England Patriots 45 (Oct 11)
- Minnesota Vikings 23, New Orleans Saints 13 (Oct 11)
- Cleveland Browns 12, New York Jets 17 (Oct 11)
- Indianapolis Colts 22, Pittsburgh Steelers 34 (Oct 11)
- Houston Texans 26, Tennessee Titans 3 (Oct 11)
- New York Giants 27, Washington Commanders 27 (Oct 11)
- Denver Broncos 23, Los Angeles Chargers 17 (Oct 11)
- San Francisco 49ers 32, Seattle Seahawks 29 (Oct 11)
- Baltimore Ravens 30, Atlanta Falcons 23 (Oct 11)
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