Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers Final — October 11, 2026
INDStarting quarterbacksexpected startersPIT
INDOffense2026 regular season to datePITINDDefensePITINDRecent formPITINDHome and roadseason to datePITInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
INDRest & travelPITINDKey injuriesPITAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 32 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Colts (2-2) visited the Steelers (2-2) at Acrisure Stadium on Sunday, October 11 at 1:00 PM ET in Week 5.
The Colts have the 24th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 26th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Steelers have the 28th-ranked offense and the 14th-ranked defense. When the Colts have the ball, a 24th-ranked offense (−0.066 EPA per play) meets a 14th-ranked defense (−0.001 allowed); when the Steelers have it, a 28th-ranked offense (−0.106) meets a 26th-ranked defense (+0.069 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Colts offense is at 43.0% (19th) and the Steelers offense at 41.2% (24th). Through the air, the Colts average −0.205 EPA per dropback (31st) against a Steelers pass defense ranked 16th; the Steelers average −0.148 (28th) against a Colts pass defense ranked 24th. The Colts score 25.5 points per game (13th) and allow 26.0 (22nd); the Steelers score 19.2 (23rd) and allow 21.8 (14th).
Aaron Rodgers has a 43.1% success rate (22nd of 32 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Daniel Jones' 42.0% (25th). Per dropback, Rodgers is at −0.128 EPA to Jones' −0.205, with 7 touchdown passes and 4 interceptions to Jones' 3 and 4.
The Colts are 2-2 and 3-1 against the spread; their last game was a 30-13 win over the Commanders. The Steelers are 2-2 and 2-2 against the spread; their last game was a 27-24 loss to the Browns.
The Steelers closed as 3-point favorites at home against the Colts. The spread opened at Steelers -2. The total closed at 41.5, down from 43.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Colts +135, Steelers -162) prices the Colts at 41% and the Steelers at 59%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Indianapolis Colts 22, Pittsburgh Steelers 34
Pittsburgh Steelers won by 12.
- Against the closing spread (Pittsburgh Steelers -3): Pittsburgh Steelers covered.
- Combined score 56 vs the closing total of 41.5: Over.
- Pittsburgh Steelers closed at -162 on the moneyline (a 59% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 4 points toward Pittsburgh Steelers.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Indianapolis Colts 41%, Pittsburgh Steelers 59%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 8:57 — Pittsburgh Steelers ball, 1st & 10 at PIT 20(Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 30-J.Warren for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-G.Stewart].Pittsburgh Steelers 50% → 63% (+13 pts) · Drive 3 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 7:48 — Indianapolis Colts ball, 4th & 1 at PIT 184-T.Warren up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.Indianapolis Colts 30% → 38% (+8 pts) · Drive 6 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 12:08 — Indianapolis Colts ball, 2nd & 8 at PIT 32(Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass deep left to 84-T.Warren pushed ob at PIT 3 for 29 yards (23-D.Everette).Indianapolis Colts 37% → 47% (+10 pts) · Drive 11 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 7:16 — Pittsburgh Steelers ball, 1st & 10 at MID 5030-J.Warren left guard for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Pittsburgh Steelers 68% → 82% (+13 pts) · Drive 12 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 10:11 — Pittsburgh Steelers ball, 3rd & 2 at PIT 44(Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-G.Bernard ran ob at IND 31 for 25 yards (25-A.Haulcy).Pittsburgh Steelers 72% → 82% (+9 pts) · Drive 16 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| Colts | Points added | Steelers |
|---|---|---|
| -8.3 | Passingdropbacks | -7.5 |
| -0.8 | Rushingdesigned runs | +3.1 |
| +13.7 | Explosive plays7 plays · 6 plays | +14.1 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| +10.8 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +6.4 |
| -1.5 | Penalties9 for 59 yds · 6 for 50 yds | -1.2 |
| -4.3 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 3 · 2 of 2 | +2.9 |
| +9.5 | All plays | +17.8 |
The biggest single gap: red zone, worth about 7.2 points to Pittsburgh Steelers. The final margin was 12.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Pittsburgh Steelers closed as the market favourite at 59% and won.
The line moved toward Pittsburgh Steelers before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Colts +2 (-110)
Colts +3 (-115)
Steelers -134 55%
Steelers -162 59%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
Josh Downs has 202 receiving yards for the Colts (36th of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 22.8%. Jonathan Taylor has 349 rushing yards on 85 carries (6th of 46 qualified running backs). DK Metcalf has 213 receiving yards for the Steelers (29th of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 22.9%. Jaylen Warren has 309 rushing yards on 55 carries (9th of 46 qualified running backs).
- Carries85
- Rush yards3496th
- Yards per carry4.123rd
- EPA per rush+0.0677th
- Rush success rate44.7%16th
- Targets / catches28 / 17
- Receiving yards20236th
- Target share22.8%27th
- Yards per target7.261st
- EPA per target+0.48629th
- Targets / catches27 / 23
- Receiving yards13022nd
- Target share22.0%6th
- Yards per target4.834th
- EPA per target+0.13522nd
- Carries55
- Rush yards3099th
- Yards per carry5.64th
- EPA per rush+0.02812th
- Rush success rate43.6%19th
- Targets / catches33 / 16
- Receiving yards21329th
- Target share22.9%26th
- Yards per target6.568th
- EPA per target−0.01671st
- Targets / catches19 / 14
- Receiving yards12523rd
- Target share13.2%22nd
- Yards per target6.621st
- EPA per target+0.17319th
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Colts | Steelers |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateColts offense vs Steelers defense | 41.5%22nd | 47.7%28th |
| Early-down success rateSteelers offense vs Colts defense | 47.7%27th | 42.9%17th |
| Early-down EPA per playColts offense vs Steelers defense | −0.12728th | −0.01512th |
| Early-down EPA per playSteelers offense vs Colts defense | +0.13029th | −0.03122nd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateColts offense vs Steelers defense | 38.5%15th | 34.8%8th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateSteelers offense vs Colts defense | 29.8%4th | 32.7%27th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playColts offense vs Steelers defense | +0.01711th | −0.14412th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playSteelers offense vs Colts defense | −0.00319th | −0.36732nd |
| Red-zone TD rateColts offense vs Steelers defense | 75.0%6th | 60.0%13th |
| Red-zone TD rateSteelers offense vs Colts defense | 57.1%11th | 44.4%27th |
| Red-zone success rateColts offense vs Steelers defense | 52.6%4th | 57.1%31st |
| Red-zone success rateSteelers offense vs Colts defense | 40.5%14th | 34.5%29th |
On early downs the Colts succeed on 41.5% of plays (22nd) against a Steelers defense that allows 47.7% (28th); on 3rd down they convert 38.5% (15th) against a defense allowing 34.8% (8th). On early downs the Steelers succeed on 42.9% of plays (17th) against a Colts defense that allows 47.7% (27th); on 3rd down they convert 32.7% (27th) against a defense allowing 29.8% (4th). The Colts score touchdowns on 75.0% of red-zone trips (6th). The Steelers score touchdowns on 44.4% of red-zone trips (27th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Colts | Steelers |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Shane Steichen | Mike McCarthy |
| Offensive coordinator | Jim Bob Cooter | Brian Angelichio |
| Defensive coordinator | Lou Anarumo | Patrick Graham |
| Offense tendencies | Colts | Steelers |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.1% | −4.0%22nd-highest | 3.3%4th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.6% | 57.4%24th-highest | 68.4%3rd-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 55.1% | 53.9%20th-highest | 63.8%3rd-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 60.0% | 59.4%16th-highest | 66.9%12th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.2% | 3.6%24th-highest | 10.1%5th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 32.8 | 33.014th-slowest | 33.313th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.4% | 10.3%30th | 13.4%24th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.8% | 6.6%29th | 8.9%16th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.2% | 13.2%4th | 10.3%12th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 5.9% | 5.6%15th | 7.6%24th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.88% | 3.19%28th | 2.40%23rd |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 60.9 | 62.89th-most | 62.013th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 63.2% | 5 of 9 | 1 of 1 |
| Defense | Colts | Steelers |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 5.9% | 5.9%17th | 7.7%8th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.4% | 18.9%23rd | 16.7%21st |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.8% | 9.1%19th | 12.5%30th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.2% | 9.2%14th | 9.6%16th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.88% | 0.80%30th | 3.12%3rd |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 16.1% | 15.1%17th | 16.9%13th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 16.1% | 17.4%22nd | 18.2%27th |
The Colts run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−4.0% pass rate over expected, 22nd-highest), while the Steelers sit at 3.3% (4th-highest). In neutral situations the Colts take 33.0 seconds between snaps and the Steelers 33.3, so the Colts play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Colts have gone for it 5 of 9 times and the Steelers 1 of 1.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 9 times since 2015: the Colts won 2 and the Steelers 7. In the most recent meeting (November 2, 2025), the Steelers won 27-20; the Colts averaged −0.123 EPA per play; the Steelers averaged −0.113 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2025 | Colts 20, Steelers 27 Steelers won | Colts -3.5 Steelers covered | 51.5 under | Colts −0.123 · Steelers −0.113 |
| Sep 29, 2024 | Steelers 24, Colts 27 Colts won | Steelers -2.5 Colts covered | 40 over | Colts +0.114 · Steelers −0.059 |
| Dec 16, 2023 | Steelers 13, Colts 30 Colts won | Colts -1.5 Colts covered | 41.5 over | Colts +0.054 · Steelers −0.320 |
| Nov 28, 2022 | Steelers 24, Colts 17 Steelers won | Colts -2.5 Steelers covered | 40 over | Colts −0.162 · Steelers +0.118 |
| Dec 27, 2020 | Colts 24, Steelers 28 Steelers won | Colts -1 Steelers covered | 43 over | Colts +0.003 · Steelers −0.008 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
Indianapolis Colts
- Indianapolis Colts team stats
- Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (Nov 1)
- Indianapolis Colts 10, Minnesota Vikings 16 (Oct 25)
- Tennessee Titans 26, Indianapolis Colts 20 (Oct 18)
- Indianapolis Colts 30, Washington Commanders 13 (Oct 4)
Pittsburgh Steelers
- Pittsburgh Steelers team stats
- Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (Nov 1)
- Pittsburgh Steelers 16, New Orleans Saints 10 (Oct 25)
- Pittsburgh Steelers 26, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19 (Oct 18)
- Pittsburgh Steelers 24, Cleveland Browns 27 (Oct 1)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on October 11, 2026
- Philadelphia Eagles 17, Jacksonville Jaguars 19 (Oct 11)
- Chicago Bears 7, Green Bay Packers 31 (Oct 11)
- Cincinnati Bengals 31, Miami Dolphins 24 (Oct 11)
- Las Vegas Raiders 17, New England Patriots 45 (Oct 11)
- Minnesota Vikings 23, New Orleans Saints 13 (Oct 11)
- Cleveland Browns 12, New York Jets 17 (Oct 11)
- Houston Texans 26, Tennessee Titans 3 (Oct 11)
- New York Giants 27, Washington Commanders 27 (Oct 11)
- Denver Broncos 23, Los Angeles Chargers 17 (Oct 11)
- Detroit Lions 45, Arizona Cardinals 21 (Oct 11)
- San Francisco 49ers 32, Seattle Seahawks 29 (Oct 11)
- Baltimore Ravens 30, Atlanta Falcons 23 (Oct 11)
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