Tennessee Titans vs Baltimore Ravens Preview & Odds — October 4, 2026
Matchup preview
The Titans (0-3) visit the Ravens (2-1) at M&T Bank Stadium on Sunday, October 4 at 1:00 PM ET in Week 4.
The Titans have the 23rd-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 20th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Ravens have the 3rd-ranked offense and the 19th-ranked defense. When the Titans have the ball, a 23rd-ranked offense (−0.066 EPA per play) meets a 19th-ranked defense (+0.022 allowed); when the Ravens have it, a 3rd-ranked offense (+0.193) meets a 20th-ranked defense (+0.033 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Titans offense is at 42.7% (18th) and the Ravens offense at 54.3% (2nd). Through the air, the Titans average −0.101 EPA per dropback (26th) against a Ravens pass defense ranked 15th; the Ravens average +0.337 (2nd) against a Titans pass defense ranked 22nd. The Titans score 12.3 points per game (30th) and allow 19.7 (10th); the Ravens score 30.7 (4th) and allow 26.0 (21st).
Lamar Jackson has a 58.1% success rate (2nd of 34 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Cam Ward's 46.1% (18th). Per dropback, Jackson is at +0.337 EPA to Ward's −0.101, with 4 touchdown passes and 1 interception to Ward's 2 and 1.
The Titans are 0-3 and 1-2 against the spread; their last game was a 12-7 loss to the Giants. The Ravens are 2-1 and 1-2 against the spread; their last game was a 34-31 win over the Cowboys.
The Ravens are 11.5-point favorites at home against the Titans. The spread has not moved since it opened. The total is 42.5, down from 43.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the moneyline (Titans +500, Ravens -715) prices the Titans at 16% and the Ravens at 84%.
Built from public team and player data; ranks are league-wide and update daily until kickoff.
Tale of the tape
Titans2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Quarterback matchup
- Dropbacks99
- Success rate46.1%18th
- EPA per dropback−0.10127th
- Completion %62.5%22nd
- CPOE+1.520th
- Yards per attempt5.731st
- TD–INT2–1
- Sack rate5.1%12th
- Dropbacks88
- Success rate58.1%2nd
- EPA per dropback+0.3374th
- Completion %71.6%4th
- CPOE+7.23rd
- Yards per attempt10.11st
- TD–INT4–1
- Sack rate5.7%16th
Primary passer = most dropbacks over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among 34 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game). Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
Players to watch
Carnell Tate leads the Titans wide receivers with 123 receiving yards (43rd of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 25.0%. Tony Pollard has 173 rushing yards on 38 carries (20th of 44 qualified running backs). Rashod Bateman leads the Ravens wide receivers with 125 receiving yards (42nd of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 17.8%. Derrick Henry has 301 rushing yards on 66 carries (5th of 44 qualified running backs).
- Carries38
- Rush yards17320th
- Yards per carry4.614th
- EPA per rush−0.05522nd
- Rush success rate39.5%23rd
- Targets / catches20 / 13
- Receiving yards12343rd
- Target share25.0%18th
- Yards per target6.264th
- EPA per target−0.07966th
- Targets / catches11 / 8
- Receiving yards5534th
- Target share13.8%22nd
- Yards per target5.034th
- EPA per target−0.25432nd
- Carries66
- Rush yards3015th
- Yards per carry4.613th
- EPA per rush−0.01817th
- Rush success rate51.5%3rd
- Targets / catches13 / 9
- Receiving yards12542nd
- Target share17.8%51st
- Yards per target9.628th
- EPA per target+0.52427th
- Targets / catches18 / 13
- Receiving yards12211th
- Target share24.7%4th
- Yards per target6.822nd
- EPA per target+0.30118th
Lead back = most carries and lead receivers = most targets over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Titans | Ravens |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateTitans offense vs Ravens defense | 40.2%25th | 43.8%17th |
| Early-down success rateRavens offense vs Titans defense | 41.0%10th | 58.3%1st |
| Early-down EPA per playTitans offense vs Ravens defense | −0.11127th | −0.0597th |
| Early-down EPA per playRavens offense vs Titans defense | +0.00919th | +0.2861st |
| 3rd-down conversion rateTitans offense vs Ravens defense | 39.5%17th | 42.1%18th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateRavens offense vs Titans defense | 40.5%15th | 38.5%18th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playTitans offense vs Ravens defense | +0.09113th | +0.21924th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playRavens offense vs Titans defense | −0.04916th | +0.1199th |
| Red-zone TD rateTitans offense vs Ravens defense | 50.0%22nd | 63.6%17th |
| Red-zone TD rateRavens offense vs Titans defense | 55.6%11th | 66.7%9th |
| Red-zone success rateTitans offense vs Ravens defense | 44.4%11th | 48.5%23rd |
| Red-zone success rateRavens offense vs Titans defense | 48.0%21st | 50.0%8th |
On early downs the Titans succeed on 40.2% of plays (25th) against a Ravens defense that allows 43.8% (17th); on 3rd down they convert 39.5% (17th) against a defense allowing 42.1% (18th). On early downs the Ravens succeed on 58.3% of plays (1st) against a Titans defense that allows 41.0% (10th); on 3rd down they convert 38.5% (18th) against a defense allowing 40.5% (15th). The Titans score touchdowns on 50.0% of red-zone trips (22nd). The Ravens score touchdowns on 66.7% of red-zone trips (9th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Titans | Ravens |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Robert Saleh | Jesse Minter |
| Offensive coordinator | Brian Daboll | Declan Doyle |
| Defensive coordinator | Gus Bradley | Anthony Weaver |
| Offense tendencies | Titans | Ravens |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.1% | −10.2%31st-highest | −8.0%27th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.4% | 63.1%10th-highest | 50.9%31st-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 54.9% | 56.4%13th-highest | 45.8%29th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 58.8% | 67.5%9th-highest | 53.2%23rd-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.1% | 14.0%3rd-highest | 4.0%21st-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 33.0 | 30.330th-slowest | 36.12nd-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.3% | 8.5%31st | 22.9%2nd |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.6% | 5.3%29th | 12.0%3rd |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.2% | 12.1%7th | 11.8%8th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.0% | 5.1%11th | 5.7%15th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.90% | 0.64%6th | 1.16%12th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 60.6 | 52.332nd-most | 57.724th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 62.7% | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 |
| Defense | Titans | Ravens |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.0% | 6.4%16th | 5.0%23rd |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.3% | 15.9%19th | 11.6%8th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.6% | 10.2%23rd | 7.1%11th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.2% | 6.4%5th | 13.2%31st |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.90% | 1.06%24th | 1.59%20th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.8% | 14.9%17th | 16.9%12th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.8% | 11.1%3rd | 10.2%2nd |
The Titans run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−10.2% pass rate over expected, 31st-highest), while the Ravens sit at −8.0% (27th-highest). In neutral situations the Titans take 30.3 seconds between snaps and the Ravens 36.1, so the Titans play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Titans have gone for it 1 of 1 times and the Ravens 2 of 3.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest. Coaching staff: Wikipedia contributors (CC BY-SA 4.0).
Injury report
No starters listed out, doubtful or questionable.
No starters listed out, doubtful or questionable.
Starters (and the primary passer) on the game's official injury report, as of the latest report captured before kickoff.
Travel and schedule
The Titans have 7 days between games and the Ravens 7. The Titans travel about 594 miles, moving their body clock 1 hour ahead. It is their 2nd straight game away from home.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Recent form and rest
TitansRavensLast five results this season, oldest to newest. Against-the-spread and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 6 times since 2015: the Titans won 3 and the Ravens 3. In the most recent meeting (October 15, 2023), the Ravens won 24-16; the Ravens averaged +0.023 EPA per play; the Titans averaged −0.197 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2023 | Ravens 24, Titans 16 Ravens won | Ravens -5.5 Ravens covered | 42.5 under | Ravens +0.023 · Titans −0.197 |
| Jan 10, 2021 playoffs | Ravens 20, Titans 13 Ravens won | Ravens -3.5 Ravens covered | 53 under | Ravens +0.184 · Titans −0.104 |
| Nov 22, 2020 | Titans 30, Ravens 24 Titans won | Ravens -6 Titans covered | 50.5 over | Ravens +0.114 · Titans +0.179 |
| Jan 11, 2020 playoffs | Titans 28, Ravens 12 Titans won | Ravens -10 Titans covered | 47.5 under | Ravens −0.148 · Titans +0.223 |
| Oct 14, 2018 | Ravens 21, Titans 0 Ravens won | Ravens -2.5 Ravens covered | 43.5 under | Ravens +0.174 · Titans −0.364 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the nflverse closing lines.
Odds and line movement
Titans +11.5 (-110)
Titans +11.5 (-112)
Ravens -760 85%
Ravens -715 84%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. The Now column updates from our odds board. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Best available prices on Oct 2
- Titans +10.5+108Polymarket
- Ravens -11-109ProphetX
- Over 42-111ProphetX
- Under 43-107Bally Bet
- Titans+590Novig
- Ravens-567Kalshi
Dig deeper
Teams
Tennessee Titans
- Tennessee Titans team stats
- Tennessee Titans 7, New York Giants 12 (Sep 27)
- Philadelphia Eagles 24, Tennessee Titans 20 (Sep 20)
Baltimore Ravens
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