Dallas Cowboys vs Houston Texans Final — October 4, 2026
DALStarting quarterbacksexpected startersHOU
DALOffense2026 regular season to dateHOUDALDefenseHOUDALRecent formHOUInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
DALRest & travelHOUDALKey injuriesHOUAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 34 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Cowboys (1-2) visited the Texans (0-3) at NRG Stadium on Sunday, October 4 at 1:00 PM ET in Week 4.
The Cowboys have the 5th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 32nd-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Texans have the 24th-ranked offense and the 15th-ranked defense. When the Cowboys have the ball, a 5th-ranked offense (+0.175 EPA per play) meets a 15th-ranked defense (−0.008 allowed); when the Texans have it, a 24th-ranked offense (−0.092) meets a 32nd-ranked defense (+0.191 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Cowboys offense is at 49.4% (7th) and the Texans offense at 40.0% (25th). Through the air, the Cowboys average +0.302 EPA per dropback (4th) against a Texans pass defense ranked 19th; the Texans average −0.030 (21st) against a Cowboys pass defense ranked 31st. The Cowboys score 29.3 points per game (7th) and allow 27.3 (25th); the Texans score 18.0 (24th) and allow 25.0 (19th).
Dak Prescott has a 53.4% success rate (4th of 34 qualified quarterbacks) compared to C.J. Stroud's 44.4% (21st). Per dropback, Prescott is at +0.295 EPA to Stroud's −0.006, with 7 touchdown passes and 1 interception to Stroud's 3 and 0.
The Cowboys are 1-2 and 2-1 against the spread; their last game was a 34-31 loss to the Ravens. The Texans are 0-3 and 0-3 against the spread; their last game was a 19-17 loss to the Colts.
The Texans closed as 3-point favorites at home against the Cowboys. The spread opened at Texans -2. The total closed at 48.5, up from 47 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Cowboys +127, Texans -152) prices the Cowboys at 42% and the Texans at 58%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Dallas Cowboys 34, Houston Texans 30
Dallas Cowboys won by 4.
- Against the closing spread (Houston Texans -3): Dallas Cowboys covered.
- Combined score 64 vs the closing total of 48.5: Over.
- Dallas Cowboys closed at +127 on the moneyline (a 42% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 4 points toward Houston Texans.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Dallas Cowboys 42%, Houston Texans 58%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q4 2:34 — Houston Texans ball, 3rd & 14 at DAL 32(Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 86-D.Schultz to DAL 25 for 2 yards. Lateral to 32-D.Montgomery pushed ob at DAL 6 for 19 yards (53-D.Winters; 23-A.Speed).Houston Texans 36% → 65% (+29 pts) · Drive 19 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 1:34 — Dallas Cowboys ball, 4th & 4 at DAL 32(No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 87-J.Ferguson to DAL 39 for 7 yards (2-C.Bullock).Dallas Cowboys 18% → 31% (+14 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:52 — Dallas Cowboys ball, 1st & 10 at HOU 34(Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 3-G.Pickens pushed ob at HOU 12 for 22 yards (6-R.Blankenship).Dallas Cowboys 51% → 70% (+19 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:43 — Dallas Cowboys ball, 2nd & 10 at HOU 12(Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 88-C.Lamb for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Dallas Cowboys 64% → 87% (+23 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:09 — Houston Texans ball, 2nd & 5 at DAL 48(Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right (24-M.Hooker).Dallas Cowboys 87% → 100% (+13 pts) · Drive 21 in Drive X-Ray
Dallas Cowboys won after falling as low as 16% (Q3 10:43).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, Houston Texans would win 78% of the time (Dallas Cowboys 22%). The result went the other way from the chances each team created.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Houston Texans. Here is where that came from.
| Cowboys | Points added | Texans |
|---|---|---|
| -9.2 | Passingdropbacks | -3.9 |
| -0.6 | Rushingdesigned runs | -4.7 |
| +17.4 | Explosive plays10 plays · 9 plays | +18.7 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| +1.4 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +0.6 |
| +5.1 | Penalties6 for 47 yds · 13 for 90 yds | -3.1 |
| +2.9 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 4 of 4 · 2 of 2 | +1.8 |
| +17.0 | All plays | +9.4 |
The biggest single gap: penalties, worth about 8.3 points to Dallas Cowboys. The final margin was 4.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Houston Texans closed as the market favourite at 58% and lost.
The line moved toward Houston Texans before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Cowboys +2 (-110)
Cowboys +3 (-115)
Texans -130 54%
Texans -152 58%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
CeeDee Lamb has 309 receiving yards for the Cowboys (4th of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 24.8%. Javonte Williams has 169 rushing yards on 43 carries (21st of 44 qualified running backs). Xavier Hutchinson has 120 receiving yards for the Texans (45th of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 18.8%. David Montgomery has 103 rushing yards on 37 carries (36th of 44 qualified running backs).
- Carries43
- Rush yards16921st
- Yards per carry3.924th
- EPA per rush−0.07623rd
- Rush success rate44.2%15th
- Targets / catches25 / 20
- Receiving yards3094th
- Target share24.8%20th
- Yards per target12.46th
- EPA per target+1.0796th
- Targets / catches11 / 9
- Receiving yards7225th
- Target share10.9%29th
- Yards per target6.523rd
- EPA per target+0.14723rd
- Carries37
- Rush yards10336th
- Yards per carry2.843rd
- EPA per rush−0.33841st
- Rush success rate27.0%41st
- Targets / catches21 / 9
- Receiving yards12045th
- Target share18.8%43rd
- Yards per target5.768th
- EPA per target−0.03264th
- Targets / catches25 / 19
- Receiving yards2054th
- Target share22.3%6th
- Yards per target8.211th
- EPA per target+0.16022nd
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Cowboys | Texans |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateCowboys offense vs Texans defense | 47.1%8th | 35.5%3rd |
| Early-down success rateTexans offense vs Cowboys defense | 52.9%32nd | 40.3%24th |
| Early-down EPA per playCowboys offense vs Texans defense | +0.1446th | −0.0695th |
| Early-down EPA per playTexans offense vs Cowboys defense | +0.21032nd | +0.01314th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateCowboys offense vs Texans defense | 57.1%2nd | 38.5%12th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateTexans offense vs Cowboys defense | 60.6%32nd | 36.4%23rd |
| 3rd-down EPA per playCowboys offense vs Texans defense | +0.2676th | +0.24025th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playTexans offense vs Cowboys defense | +0.35128th | −0.15723rd |
| Red-zone TD rateCowboys offense vs Texans defense | 69.2%8th | 42.9%8th |
| Red-zone TD rateTexans offense vs Cowboys defense | 71.4%22nd | 50.0%22nd |
| Red-zone success rateCowboys offense vs Texans defense | 41.7%17th | 25.0%3rd |
| Red-zone success rateTexans offense vs Cowboys defense | 48.8%26th | 32.1%28th |
On early downs the Cowboys succeed on 47.1% of plays (8th) against a Texans defense that allows 35.5% (3rd); on 3rd down they convert 57.1% (2nd) against a defense allowing 38.5% (12th). On early downs the Texans succeed on 40.3% of plays (24th) against a Cowboys defense that allows 52.9% (32nd); on 3rd down they convert 36.4% (23rd) against a defense allowing 60.6% (32nd). The Cowboys score touchdowns on 69.2% of red-zone trips (8th). The Texans score touchdowns on 50.0% of red-zone trips (22nd).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Cowboys | Texans |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Brian Schottenheimer | DeMeco Ryans |
| Offensive coordinator | Klayton Adams | Nick Caley |
| Defensive coordinator | Christian Parker | Matt Burke |
| Offense tendencies | Cowboys | Texans |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.1% | 4.6%2nd-highest | −2.1%18th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.4% | 66.3%6th-highest | 67.0%5th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 54.9% | 61.4%7th-highest | 64.4%2nd-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 58.8% | 64.4%14th-highest | 68.0%7th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.1% | 5.1%16th-highest | 8.0%10th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 33.0 | 32.225th-slowest | 32.027th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.3% | 11.4%28th | 18.5%7th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.6% | 4.4%30th | 8.9%17th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.2% | 6.7%23rd | 6.1%27th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.0% | 2.5%2nd | 7.5%21st |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.90% | 1.12%9th | 1.00%7th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 60.6 | 59.019th-most | 66.73rd-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 62.7% | 1 of 1 | 5 of 8 |
| Defense | Cowboys | Texans |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.0% | 2.1%30th | 10.0%2nd |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.3% | 17.9%23rd | 26.5%32nd |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.6% | 8.4%14th | 14.3%31st |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.2% | 12.0%28th | 7.2%8th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.90% | 1.05%26th | 1.66%18th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.8% | 12.4%26th | 17.4%9th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.8% | 13.7%8th | 16.4%19th |
The Cowboys pass more often than down, distance and score would suggest (4.6% pass rate over expected, 2nd-highest), while the Texans sit at −2.1% (18th-highest). In neutral situations the Cowboys take 32.2 seconds between snaps and the Texans 32.0, so the Texans play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Cowboys have gone for it 1 of 1 times and the Texans 5 of 8.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 3 times since 2015: the Cowboys won 1 and the Texans 2. In the most recent meeting (November 18, 2024), the Texans won 34-10; the Cowboys averaged −0.305 EPA per play; the Texans averaged +0.194 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 18, 2024 | Texans 34, Cowboys 10 Texans won | Texans -7.5 Texans covered | 41.5 over | Cowboys −0.305 · Texans +0.194 |
| Dec 11, 2022 | Texans 23, Cowboys 27 Cowboys won | Cowboys -17 Texans covered | 44.5 over | Cowboys −0.024 · Texans −0.186 |
| Oct 7, 2018 | Cowboys 16, Texans 19 Texans won | Texans -3.5 Cowboys covered | 45 under | Cowboys −0.149 · Texans −0.134 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
Dallas Cowboys
- Dallas Cowboys team stats
- Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys (Nov 1)
- Dallas Cowboys 38, Philadelphia Eagles 21 (Oct 26)
- Dallas Cowboys 13, Green Bay Packers 23 (Oct 18)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24, Dallas Cowboys 16 (Oct 8)
Houston Texans
- Houston Texans team stats
- New York Giants 27, Houston Texans 21 (Oct 25)
- Houston Texans 34, Jacksonville Jaguars 31 (Oct 18)
- Houston Texans 26, Tennessee Titans 3 (Oct 11)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on October 4, 2026
- Indianapolis Colts 30, Washington Commanders 13 (Oct 4)
- Tennessee Titans 18, Baltimore Ravens 24 (Oct 4)
- New England Patriots 29, Buffalo Bills 26 (Oct 4)
- New York Jets 12, Chicago Bears 23 (Oct 4)
- Jacksonville Jaguars 22, Cincinnati Bengals 17 (Oct 4)
- Arizona Cardinals 24, New York Giants 36 (Oct 4)
- Los Angeles Rams 24, Philadelphia Eagles 20 (Oct 4)
- Green Bay Packers 17, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 (Oct 4)
- Miami Dolphins 10, Minnesota Vikings 15 (Oct 4)
- Kansas City Chiefs 30, Las Vegas Raiders 27 (Oct 4)
- Denver Broncos 14, San Francisco 49ers 24 (Oct 4)
- Los Angeles Chargers 23, Seattle Seahawks 30 (Oct 4)
- Detroit Lions 26, Carolina Panthers 32 (Oct 4)
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