Buffalo Sabres vs Montréal Canadiens Final — October 13, 2026
BUFStarting goaliesMTL
BUFOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)MTLBUFDefenseMTLBUFTeamMTLBUF5-on-5MTLBUFSpecial teamsMTLBUFRecent formMTLBUFHome and roadseason to dateMTLInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
BUFRest & travelMTLBUFKey injuriesMTLAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 13, 3:40 p.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Sabres (3-3-0) visited the Canadiens (2-2-1) on Tuesday, October 13 at 6:40 PM ET.
Last season (2025-26), the Sabres scored 3.51 goals per game (5th of 32) and allowed 2.94 (7th). The Canadiens scored 3.45 goals per game (6th of 32) and allowed 3.12 (18th). The Sabres earned 66.5% of available standings points (4th) and the Canadiens 64.6% (5th).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Sabres 50.5% (14th), Canadiens 48.8% (20th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Sabres 49.3% (16th), Canadiens 48.6% (23rd). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Sabres 51.7% (13th), Canadiens 46.4% (24th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.
The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Sabres +130, Canadiens -155) prices the Sabres at 42% and the Canadiens at 58%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Buffalo Sabres 3, Montréal Canadiens 4
Montréal Canadiens won by 1.
- Against the closing spread (Montréal Canadiens -1.5): Buffalo Sabres covered.
- Combined score 7 vs the closing total of 6.5: Over.
- Montréal Canadiens closed at -155 on the moneyline (a 58% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Montréal Canadiens 4
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Buffalo Sabres.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Buffalo Sabres 42%, Montréal Canadiens 58%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 1st 14:28 — Montréal Canadiens goal (1-1)Montréal Canadiens 41% → 62% (+21 pts)
- 3rd 5:25 — Buffalo Sabres goal (3-3)Buffalo Sabres 18% → 46% (+27 pts)
- OT 5:00 — Montréal Canadiens game-endMontréal Canadiens 50% → 100% (+50 pts)
Montréal Canadiens won after falling as low as 39% (1st 8:25).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Montréal Canadiens won 63% of G&W replays (Buffalo Sabres 37%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Montréal Canadiens. Here is where that came from.
| Sabres | Goals | Canadiens |
|---|---|---|
| 1.4 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 2.1 |
| 0.5 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 0.5 |
| 0.0 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.2 |
| 1.9 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 2.8 |
| 0.0 | Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result | 0.8 |
| 0.2 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.1 |
| +1.1 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | -0.6 |
| +0.6 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen 35/38 · Jacob Fowler 14/17 | -1.1 |
How the margin was built, from Montréal Canadiens's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Montréal Canadiens closed as the market favourite at 58% and won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Sabres +1.5 (-185)
Sabres +1.5 (-193)
Canadiens -159 59%
Canadiens -155 58%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 25 times since 2018-19: the Sabres won 12 and the Canadiens 13.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | Canadiens 4, Sabres 2 Canadiens won | Sabres -130 underdog won | 6.5 under |
| Jan 22, 2026 | Sabres 4, Canadiens 2 Sabres won | Canadiens -120 underdog won | 6.5 under |
| Jan 15, 2026 | Canadiens 3, Sabres 5 Sabres won | Canadiens -125 underdog won | 6.5 over |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Sabres 2, Canadiens 4 Canadiens won | Canadiens -150 favorite won | 6 push |
| Mar 3, 2025 | Sabres 3, Canadiens 4 OT Canadiens won | Canadiens -120 favorite won | 6.5 over |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
Buffalo Sabres
- Buffalo Sabres team stats
- Buffalo Sabres 2, San Jose Sharks 0 (Oct 27)
- Buffalo Sabres 3, Washington Capitals 4 (Oct 24)
- Philadelphia Flyers 3, Buffalo Sabres 1 (Oct 21)
Montréal Canadiens
- Montréal Canadiens team stats
- Montréal Canadiens 2, St Louis Blues 0 (Oct 27)
- Montréal Canadiens 2, Winnipeg Jets 1 (Oct 25)
- Montréal Canadiens 4, Chicago Blackhawks 1 (Oct 23)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NHL games on October 13, 2026
- New Jersey Devils 5, Detroit Red Wings 4 (Oct 13)
- Florida Panthers 7, Columbus Blue Jackets 3 (Oct 13)
- Washington Capitals 2, Carolina Hurricanes 4 (Oct 13)
- Seattle Kraken 3, Philadelphia Flyers 2 (Oct 13)
- Tampa Bay Lightning 1, New York Rangers 4 (Oct 13)
- St Louis Blues 7, Ottawa Senators 2 (Oct 13)
- Vancouver Canucks 2, New York Islanders 3 (Oct 13)
- Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Chicago Blackhawks 5 (Oct 13)
- Minnesota Wild 2, Winnipeg Jets 5 (Oct 13)
- Colorado Avalanche 3, Dallas Stars 2 (Oct 13)
- Vegas Golden Knights 5, Nashville Predators 2 (Oct 13)
- Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Utah Mammoth 5 (Oct 13)
- Calgary Flames 4, Anaheim Ducks 2 (Oct 13)
- Edmonton Oilers 4, Los Angeles Kings 1 (Oct 13)
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