Colorado Avalanche vs Dallas Stars Final — October 13, 2026
COLStarting goaliesDAL
COLOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)DALCOLDefenseDALCOLTeamDALCOL5-on-5DALCOLSpecial teamsDALCOLRecent formDALCOLHome and roadseason to dateDALInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
COLRest & travelDALCOLKey injuriesDALAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
No key players listed.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 13, 10:10 a.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Avalanche (3-2-0) visited the Stars (2-2-1) on Tuesday, October 13 at 8:40 PM ET.
Last season (2025-26), the Avalanche scored 3.68 goals per game (1st of 32) and allowed 2.48 (1st). The Stars scored 3.40 goals per game (8th of 32) and allowed 2.76 (2nd). The Avalanche earned 73.8% of available standings points (1st) and the Stars 68.3% (3rd).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Avalanche 56.6% (1st), Stars 50.8% (13th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Avalanche 56.7% (2nd), Stars 47.5% (27th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Avalanche 54.8% (6th), Stars 55.9% (5th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.
The total closed 5.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Avalanche -105, Stars -115) prices the Avalanche at 49% and the Stars at 51%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Colorado Avalanche 3, Dallas Stars 2
Colorado Avalanche won by 1.
- Against the closing spread (Dallas Stars -1.5): Colorado Avalanche covered.
- Combined score 5 vs the closing total of 5.5: Under.
- Colorado Avalanche closed at -105 on the moneyline (a 49% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Dallas Stars 2
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 2 points toward Dallas Stars.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Colorado Avalanche 49%, Dallas Stars 51%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 1st 19:06 — Dallas Stars goal (1-1)Dallas Stars 34% → 56% (+22 pts)
- 2nd 3:05 — Colorado Avalanche goal (2-1)Colorado Avalanche 49% → 68% (+19 pts)
- 2nd 16:14 — Colorado Avalanche goal (3-1)Colorado Avalanche 73% → 91% (+18 pts)
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Dallas Stars won 50% of G&W replays (Colorado Avalanche 50%). The chances each team created were close to even.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above had the chances close to even. Here is where each side gained and lost.
| Avalanche | Goals | Stars |
|---|---|---|
| 1.3 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 2.0 |
| 1.1 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 0.4 |
| 0.3 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.3 |
| 2.7 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 2.7 |
| 0.0 | Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result | 0.1 |
| 0.1 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.6 |
| +0.3 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | -0.8 |
| +0.8 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Mackenzie Blackwood 24/26 · Jake Oettinger 22/25 | -0.3 |
How the margin was built, from Colorado Avalanche's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
Line review
Dallas Stars closed as the market favourite at 51% and lost.
The line moved toward Dallas Stars before puck drop, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Avalanche -1.5 (+207)
Avalanche +1.5 (-290)
Stars -105 49%
Stars -115 51%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 26 times since 2018-19: the Avalanche won 14 and the Stars 12.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2026 | Avalanche 2, Stars 0 Avalanche won | ||
| Mar 18, 2026 | Stars 2, Avalanche 1 SO Stars won | Avalanche -140 underdog won | 6.5 under |
| Mar 6, 2026 | Avalanche 5, Stars 4 SO Avalanche won | Avalanche -122 favorite won | 6 over |
| Oct 11, 2025 | Stars 5, Avalanche 4 SO Stars won | Avalanche -145 underdog won | 6 over |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Stars 3, Avalanche 4 OT Avalanche won | Avalanche -125 favorite won | 6 over |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
Colorado Avalanche
- Colorado Avalanche team stats
- New Jersey Devils at Colorado Avalanche (Oct 28)
- Colorado Avalanche 2, Nashville Predators 6 (Oct 25)
- Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Colorado Avalanche 6 (Oct 23)
- Colorado Avalanche 3, New Jersey Devils 4 (Oct 20)
Dallas Stars
More NHL games on October 13, 2026
- New Jersey Devils 5, Detroit Red Wings 4 (Oct 13)
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- Buffalo Sabres 3, Montréal Canadiens 4 (Oct 13)
- Washington Capitals 2, Carolina Hurricanes 4 (Oct 13)
- Seattle Kraken 3, Philadelphia Flyers 2 (Oct 13)
- Tampa Bay Lightning 1, New York Rangers 4 (Oct 13)
- St Louis Blues 7, Ottawa Senators 2 (Oct 13)
- Vancouver Canucks 2, New York Islanders 3 (Oct 13)
- Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Chicago Blackhawks 5 (Oct 13)
- Minnesota Wild 2, Winnipeg Jets 5 (Oct 13)
- Vegas Golden Knights 5, Nashville Predators 2 (Oct 13)
- Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Utah Mammoth 5 (Oct 13)
- Calgary Flames 4, Anaheim Ducks 2 (Oct 13)
- Edmonton Oilers 4, Los Angeles Kings 1 (Oct 13)
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