St Louis Blues vs Ottawa Senators Final — October 13, 2026
STLStarting goaliesOTT
STLOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)OTTSTLDefenseOTTSTLTeamOTTSTL5-on-5OTTSTLSpecial teamsOTTSTLRecent formOTTSTLHome and roadseason to dateOTTInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
STLRest & travelOTTSTLKey injuriesOTTAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 13, 9:40 a.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Blues (2-2-1) visited the Senators (5-1-0) on Tuesday, October 13 at 7:40 PM ET.
Last season (2025-26), the Blues scored 2.82 goals per game (25th of 32) and allowed 3.15 (19th). The Senators scored 3.39 goals per game (9th of 32) and allowed 3.00 (11th). The Blues earned 52.4% of available standings points (22nd) and the Senators 60.4% (9th).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Blues 49.5% (19th), Senators 54.8% (3rd). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Blues 48.2% (25th), Senators 52.9% (5th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Blues 45.4% (27th), Senators 56.0% (4th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.
The total closed 5.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Blues -125, Senators +105) prices the Blues at 53% and the Senators at 47%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
St Louis Blues 7, Ottawa Senators 2
St Louis Blues won by 5.
- Against the closing spread (Ottawa Senators +1.5): St Louis Blues covered.
- Combined score 9 vs the closing total of 5.5: Over.
- St Louis Blues closed at -125 on the moneyline (a 53% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Ottawa Senators 2
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 5 points toward St Louis Blues.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (St Louis Blues 53%, Ottawa Senators 47%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 1st 14:28 — St Louis Blues goal (1-0)St Louis Blues 51% → 68% (+17 pts)
- 2nd 17:52 — Ottawa Senators goal (2-1)Ottawa Senators 10% → 24% (+15 pts)
- 2nd 18:25 — St Louis Blues goal (3-1)St Louis Blues 76% → 91% (+15 pts)
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, St Louis Blues won 80% of G&W replays (Ottawa Senators 20%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured St Louis Blues. Here is where that came from.
| Blues | Goals | Senators |
|---|---|---|
| 2.9 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 1.2 |
| 1.0 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 0.3 |
| 0.2 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.3 |
| 4.1 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 1.8 |
| 0.2 | Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result | 0.0 |
| 0.6 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.2 |
| +2.8 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | +0.2 |
| -0.2 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Joel Hofer 15/17 · Samuel Ersson 19/26 | -2.8 |
How the margin was built, from St Louis Blues's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
Line review
St Louis Blues closed as the market favourite at 53% and won.
The line moved toward St Louis Blues before puck drop, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Blues +1.5 (-250)
Blues -1.5 (+200)
Senators -120 52%
Senators +105 47%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 13 times since 2018-19: the Blues won 9 and the Senators 4.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2025 | Blues 2, Senators 1 Blues won | Senators -154 underdog won | 5.5 under |
| Nov 28, 2025 | Senators 3, Blues 4 Blues won | Senators -115 underdog won | 5.5 over |
| Jan 3, 2025 | Senators 0, Blues 4 Blues won | Blues -125 favorite won | 5.5 under |
| Oct 29, 2024 | Blues 1, Senators 8 Senators won | Senators -184 favorite won | 6.5 over |
| Mar 21, 2024 | Blues 5, Senators 2 Blues won | Senators -130 underdog won | 6.5 over |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
St Louis Blues
- St Louis Blues team stats
- Montréal Canadiens 2, St Louis Blues 0 (Oct 27)
- Carolina Hurricanes 4, St Louis Blues 0 (Oct 24)
- Vegas Golden Knights 2, St Louis Blues 6 (Oct 22)
Ottawa Senators
More NHL games on October 13, 2026
- New Jersey Devils 5, Detroit Red Wings 4 (Oct 13)
- Florida Panthers 7, Columbus Blue Jackets 3 (Oct 13)
- Buffalo Sabres 3, Montréal Canadiens 4 (Oct 13)
- Washington Capitals 2, Carolina Hurricanes 4 (Oct 13)
- Seattle Kraken 3, Philadelphia Flyers 2 (Oct 13)
- Tampa Bay Lightning 1, New York Rangers 4 (Oct 13)
- Vancouver Canucks 2, New York Islanders 3 (Oct 13)
- Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Chicago Blackhawks 5 (Oct 13)
- Minnesota Wild 2, Winnipeg Jets 5 (Oct 13)
- Colorado Avalanche 3, Dallas Stars 2 (Oct 13)
- Vegas Golden Knights 5, Nashville Predators 2 (Oct 13)
- Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Utah Mammoth 5 (Oct 13)
- Calgary Flames 4, Anaheim Ducks 2 (Oct 13)
- Edmonton Oilers 4, Los Angeles Kings 1 (Oct 13)
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