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NHL · October 13, 2026

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Utah Mammoth Final — October 13, 2026

Toronto Maple Leafs

3-2-1

Goalie Anthony Stolarz Confirmed

FINAL

Utah Mammoth

4-2-0

Goalie Karel Vejmelka Confirmed

Tuesday, October 13 · 9:10 PM ET

TORStarting goaliesUTAH

This season

Starts

.904

Sv%

.907

.750

HDSv%

1.000

+0.7

GSAx

+1.4

Last season

Starts

.893

Sv%

.897

.871

HDSv%

.806

−5.3

GSAx

+6.1

TOROffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)UTAH

16th3.09

GF/G

3.2713th

21st6.90

PP GF/60

7.4117th

TORDefenseUTAH

31st3.65

GA/G

2.934th

6th6.38

PK GA/60

7.7419th

TORTeamUTAH

28th47.6%

Pts%

56.1%15th

29th45.5%

xGF%

53.4%6th

32nd44.8%

CF%

53.1%4th

28th45.2%

HDCF%

53.0%11th

TOR5-on-5UTAH

28th2.28

xGF/60

2.744th

27th2.74

xGA/60

2.389th

8th10.3%

Sh%

10.3%7th

22nd90.0%

Sv%

90.0%21st

10th117.1

CF/60 (both)

114.521st

7th+0.20

GAx/G

+0.0715th

24th−0.11

GSAx/G

0.0015th

10th10.9%

Sh%

11.0%8th

15th89.7%

Sv%

89.3%20th

31st40.5%

xGF% (L20)

51.3%14th

TORSpecial teamsUTAH

19th7.33

PP xG/60

7.2322nd

25th73.3

PP FF/60

74.024th

31st4.1

PP min/G

4.620th

31st8.78

PK xGA/60

7.9920th

19th4.8

PK min/G

5.024th

TORRecent formUTAH

Wvs NYI 2-1Lvs OTT 2-3Wvs NSH 5-4OTL@ VGK 3-4W@ COL 6-3

Resultsoldest to newest

W@ CBJ 4-1L@ NYR 2-4W@ NJD 5-3L@ BOS 1-6W@ BUF 4-1

Game by game

3-2-1

Record

4-2-0

3-1-1

Last 5

3-2-0

3-3

Over–under

3-3

TORHome and roadseason to dateUTAH

2-2-0

Home record

1-0-0

1-0-1

Road record

3-2-0

1-3

Home O/U

0-1

2-0

Road O/U

3-2

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Injuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel

TORRest & travelUTAH

3 days

Days of rest

3 days

370 mi596 km

Travel to the game

Home

TORKey injuriesUTAH

Max Domi CIR

Players out or limited

None listed

About these numbers

Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.

Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.

2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.

Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.

Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.

No key players listed.

Key players only. Injury report as of October 13, 8:10 p.m. ET.

The pre-game matchup

The Maple Leafs (3-2-1) visited the Mammoth (4-2-0) on Tuesday, October 13 at 9:10 PM ET.

Last season (2025-26), the Maple Leafs scored 3.09 goals per game (16th of 32) and allowed 3.65 (31st). The Mammoth scored 3.27 goals per game (13th of 32) and allowed 2.93 (4th). The Maple Leafs earned 47.6% of available standings points (28th) and the Mammoth 56.1% (15th).

Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Maple Leafs 45.5% (29th), Mammoth 53.4% (6th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Maple Leafs 44.8% (32nd), Mammoth 53.1% (4th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Maple Leafs 45.2% (28th), Mammoth 53.0% (11th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.

The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Maple Leafs +135, Mammoth -162) prices the Maple Leafs at 41% and the Mammoth at 59%.

Written from the numbers available before kickoff.

Result

Final score and result vs the closing line

Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Utah Mammoth 5

Utah Mammoth won by 1.

Against the closing spread (Utah Mammoth -1.5): Toronto Maple Leafs covered.
Combined score 9 vs the closing total of 6.5: Over.
Utah Mammoth closed at -162 on the moneyline (a 59% no-vig market-implied chance).

Actual result

Final

Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Utah Mammoth 5

Decided

In regulation

Utah Mammoth won

Lead changes

Before the game: market and G&W

41%Market at the close59%

Toronto Maple LeafsUtah Mammoth

45%Market at the open55%

From open to close the market moved 4 points toward Utah Mammoth.

The G&W pregame win probability for this game is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.

Win probability

Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Toronto Maple Leafs 41%, Utah Mammoth 59%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.

Biggest swings

1st 14:55 — Utah Mammoth goal (0-1)Utah Mammoth 58% → 74% (+16 pts)
2nd 1:00 — Utah Mammoth goal (0-2)Utah Mammoth 75% → 87% (+13 pts)
3rd 11:01 — Toronto Maple Leafs goal (4-5)Toronto Maple Leafs 3% → 13% (+10 pts)

Analytics members also see this chart starting from the G&W pregame win probability. See plans

Chance Quality Result

40%TOR

Share of G&W replays won

60%UTA

2.2

Expected goals

2.8

Final score

Based on the quality of chances each team created, Utah Mammoth won 60% of G&W replays (Toronto Maple Leafs 40%). The chances each team created were close to even.

The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.

Game DNA

The Chance Quality Result above had the chances close to even. Here is where each side gained and lost.

Maple Leafs	Goals	Mammoth
1.0	5-on-5 chancesexpected goals	1.8
1.0	Power-play chancesexpected goals	0.5
0.2	Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed	0.5
2.2	Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result	2.8
0.6	Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result	0.3
0.1	Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above	0.8
+1.2	Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots	+1.9
-1.9	Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Anthony Stolarz 23/28 · Karel Vejmelka 22/26	-1.2

Bar left: Maple Leafs gainedBar right: Mammoth gained

How the margin was built, from Utah Mammoth's side:

Chances +0.3Finishing & goaltending +0.7Utah Mammoth by 1

The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.

The official play, graded

The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.

Official playOver 6.5 -1121.00uWIN +1.00u

Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.

Line review

Utah Mammoth closed as the market favourite at 59% and won.

The line moved toward Utah Mammoth before puck drop, and they won.

How the G&W pregame number compared with the close, and whether the line moved toward it, is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market

Closing line and line movement

Puck lineno move

OpenMammoth -1.5 (+177)
Maple Leafs +1.5 (-219)

CloseMammoth -1.5 (+140)
Maple Leafs +1.5 (-180)

Totalno move

Open6.5 (o -109 / u -111)

Close6.5 (o -120 / u -102)

Moneyline

OpenMaple Leafs +115 45%
Mammoth -136 55%

CloseMaple Leafs +135 41%
Mammoth -162 59%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

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Matchup

Head-to-head

The teams have met 14 times since 2018-19: the Maple Leafs won 7 and the Mammoth 7.

Date	Score	Line	Total
Jan 13, 2026	Maple Leafs 1, Mammoth 6 Mammoth won	Mammoth -162 favorite won	6 over
Nov 5, 2025	Mammoth 3, Maple Leafs 5 Maple Leafs won	Maple Leafs -155 favorite won	6.5 over
Mar 10, 2025	Maple Leafs 4, Mammoth 3 SO Maple Leafs won
Nov 24, 2024	Mammoth 2, Maple Leafs 3 Maple Leafs won
Feb 29, 2024	Mammoth 2, Maple Leafs 4 Maple Leafs won

Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.

Teams