Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Rangers Final — October 13, 2026
TBStarting goaliesNYR
TBOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)NYRTBDefenseNYRTBTeamNYRTB5-on-5NYRTBSpecial teamsNYRTBRecent formNYRTBHome and roadseason to dateNYRInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
TBRest & travelNYRTBKey injuriesNYRAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
No key players listed.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 13, 6:40 p.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Lightning (4-1-0) visited the Rangers (5-2-0) on Tuesday, October 13 at 7:25 PM ET.
Last season (2025-26), the Lightning scored 3.54 goals per game (4th of 32) and allowed 2.82 (3rd). The Rangers scored 2.90 goals per game (23rd of 32) and allowed 3.05 (13th). The Lightning earned 64.6% of available standings points (5th) and the Rangers 47.0% (29th).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Lightning 54.2% (5th), Rangers 48.4% (23rd). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Lightning 53.3% (3rd), Rangers 48.9% (20th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Lightning 57.9% (2nd), Rangers 49.0% (17th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.
The total closed 5.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Lightning -163, Rangers +136) prices the Lightning at 59% and the Rangers at 41%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, New York Rangers 4
New York Rangers won by 3.
- Against the closing spread (New York Rangers +1.5): New York Rangers covered.
- Combined score 5 vs the closing total of 5.5: Under.
- New York Rangers closed at +136 on the moneyline (a 41% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
New York Rangers 4
Before the game: market and G&W
The market barely moved from open to close.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Tampa Bay Lightning 59%, New York Rangers 41%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 1st 12:47 — New York Rangers goal (0-2)New York Rangers 59% → 74% (+16 pts)
- 1st 17:26 — Tampa Bay Lightning goal (1-2)Tampa Bay Lightning 24% → 40% (+16 pts)
- 2nd 18:26 — New York Rangers goal (1-3)New York Rangers 69% → 87% (+18 pts)
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, New York Rangers won 53% of G&W replays (Tampa Bay Lightning 47%). The chances each team created were close to even.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above had the chances close to even. Here is where each side gained and lost.
| Lightning | Goals | Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 1.3 |
| 0.3 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 0.6 |
| 0.2 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.2 |
| 2.0 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 2.1 |
| 0.3 | Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result | 0.0 |
| 0.2 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.3 |
| -1.3 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | +0.9 |
| -0.9 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Andrei Vasilevskiy 19/22 · Dylan Garand 25/26 | +1.3 |
| 0 | Empty-net goals | 1 |
How the margin was built, from New York Rangers's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
Line review
Tampa Bay Lightning closed as the market favourite at 59% and lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Lightning -1.5 (+146)
Lightning -1.5 (+155)
Rangers +137 40%
Rangers +136 41%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 21 times since 2018-19: the Lightning won 9 and the Rangers 12.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | Lightning 1, Rangers 5 Rangers won | Lightning -150 underdog won | 5.5 over |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Rangers 4, Lightning 2 Rangers won | ||
| Nov 29, 2025 | Lightning 4, Rangers 1 Lightning won | Rangers -125 underdog won | 6.5 under |
| Nov 12, 2025 | Rangers 7, Lightning 3 Rangers won | Lightning -125 underdog won | 5.5 over |
| Apr 17, 2025 | Lightning 0, Rangers 4 Rangers won | 6.5 under |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
Tampa Bay Lightning
- Tampa Bay Lightning team stats
- Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Utah Mammoth 5 (Oct 24)
- Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Colorado Avalanche 6 (Oct 23)
- Tampa Bay Lightning 6, Vegas Golden Knights 2 (Oct 20)
New York Rangers
More NHL games on October 13, 2026
- New Jersey Devils 5, Detroit Red Wings 4 (Oct 13)
- Florida Panthers 7, Columbus Blue Jackets 3 (Oct 13)
- Buffalo Sabres 3, Montréal Canadiens 4 (Oct 13)
- Washington Capitals 2, Carolina Hurricanes 4 (Oct 13)
- Seattle Kraken 3, Philadelphia Flyers 2 (Oct 13)
- St Louis Blues 7, Ottawa Senators 2 (Oct 13)
- Vancouver Canucks 2, New York Islanders 3 (Oct 13)
- Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Chicago Blackhawks 5 (Oct 13)
- Minnesota Wild 2, Winnipeg Jets 5 (Oct 13)
- Colorado Avalanche 3, Dallas Stars 2 (Oct 13)
- Vegas Golden Knights 5, Nashville Predators 2 (Oct 13)
- Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Utah Mammoth 5 (Oct 13)
- Calgary Flames 4, Anaheim Ducks 2 (Oct 13)
- Edmonton Oilers 4, Los Angeles Kings 1 (Oct 13)
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