Arizona Cardinals vs New York Giants Final — October 4, 2026
ARIStarting quarterbacksexpected startersNYG
ARIOffense2026 regular season to dateNYGARIDefenseNYGARIRecent formNYGInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
ARIRest & travelNYGARIKey injuriesNYGAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 34 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
No key players listed out, doubtful or questionable.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Cardinals (1-2) visited the Giants (2-1) at MetLife Stadium on Sunday, October 4 at 1:00 PM ET in Week 4.
The Cardinals have the 13th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 28th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Giants have the 18th-ranked offense and the 27th-ranked defense. When the Cardinals have the ball, a 13th-ranked offense (+0.042 EPA per play) meets a 27th-ranked defense (+0.117 allowed); when the Giants have it, a 18th-ranked offense (−0.035) meets a 28th-ranked defense (+0.123 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Cardinals offense is at 46.9% (8th) and the Giants offense at 42.9% (17th). Through the air, the Cardinals average +0.111 EPA per dropback (15th) against a Giants pass defense ranked 27th; the Giants average −0.003 (19th) against a Cardinals pass defense ranked 30th. The Cardinals score 21.0 points per game (18th) and allow 27.0 (24th); the Giants score 15.3 (28th) and allow 18.3 (9th).
Jacoby Brissett has a 49.6% success rate (10th of 34 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Jameis Winston's 31.6% (34th). Per dropback, Brissett is at +0.111 EPA to Winston's −0.385, with 4 touchdown passes and 1 interception to Winston's 0 and 1.
The Cardinals are 1-2 and 2-1 against the spread; their last game was a 36-30 loss to the 49ers. The Giants are 2-1 and 2-1 against the spread; their last game was a 12-7 win over the Titans.
The Cardinals closed as 2.5-point road favorites, with the Giants getting the points at home. The spread opened with Giants favored by 2. The total closed at 44.5, up from 43.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Cardinals -138, Giants +115) prices the Cardinals at 55% and the Giants at 45%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Arizona Cardinals 24, New York Giants 36
New York Giants won by 12.
- Against the closing spread (New York Giants +2.5): New York Giants covered.
- Combined score 60 vs the closing total of 44.5: Over.
- New York Giants closed at +115 on the moneyline (a 45% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 10 points toward Arizona Cardinals.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Arizona Cardinals 55%, New York Giants 45%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q2 3:15 — Arizona Cardinals ball, 3rd & 2 at ARI 35(Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left intended for 14-Mi.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 52-A.Reese (93-S.Harris) at ARI 34. 52-A.Reese to ARI 26 for 8 yards (74-I.Adams).New York Giants 39% → 53% (+14 pts) · Drive 11 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 5:47 — New York Giants ball, 3rd & 20 at NYG 42(Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass deep left to 88-M.Fields pushed ob at ARI 18 for 40 yards (31-W.Williams).New York Giants 24% → 41% (+17 pts) · Drive 18 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 1:48 — New York Giants ball, 2nd & 10 at ARI 11(Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short middle to 84-T.Johnson for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.New York Giants 40% → 56% (+16 pts) · Drive 18 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 11:14 — New York Giants ball, 2nd & 9 at ARI 4323-N.Harris left guard to ARI 41 for 2 yards (1-Ma.Wilson; 55-D.Stills). FUMBLES (1-Ma.Wilson), RECOVERED by ARI-25-Z.Collins at ARI 42.Arizona Cardinals 27% → 48% (+20 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:27 — Arizona Cardinals ball, 3rd & 6 at NYG 22(No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep left to 18-M.Harrison. PENALTY on NYG-2-D.Banks, Defensive Pass Interference, 18 yards, enforced at NYG 22 - No Play.Arizona Cardinals 14% → 43% (+29 pts) · Drive 25 in Drive X-Ray
New York Giants won after falling as low as 21% (Q2 15:00).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, New York Giants would win 65% of the time (Arizona Cardinals 35%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured New York Giants. Here is where that came from.
| Cardinals | Points added | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| -6.5 | Passingdropbacks | -12.2 |
| -1.1 | Rushingdesigned runs | -2.0 |
| +7.5 | Explosive plays5 plays · 6 plays | +18.4 |
| -16.6 | Turnovers3 giveaways · 3 giveaways | -9.7 |
| +2.5 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +5.7 |
| +1.7 | Penalties7 for 55 yds · 6 for 44 yds | +1.5 |
| +0.9 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 3 · 2 of 3 | +0.5 |
| -11.6 | All plays | +2.0 |
The biggest single gap: explosive plays, worth about 10.8 points to New York Giants. The final margin was 12.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Arizona Cardinals closed as the market favourite at 55% and lost.
The line moved toward Arizona Cardinals before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Cardinals +2 (-110)
Cardinals -2.5 (-110)
Giants -134 55%
Giants +115 45%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
Michael Wilson has 163 receiving yards for the Cardinals (27th of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 27.4%. Jeremiyah Love has 160 rushing yards on 41 carries (24th of 44 qualified running backs). Malik Nabers has 96 receiving yards for the Giants (60th of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 23.2%. Cam Skattebo has 177 rushing yards on 50 carries (18th of 44 qualified running backs).
- Carries41
- Rush yards16024th
- Yards per carry3.927th
- EPA per rush−0.01015th
- Rush success rate46.3%10th
- Targets / catches31 / 18
- Receiving yards16327th
- Target share27.4%8th
- Yards per target5.372nd
- EPA per target+0.09158th
- Targets / catches34 / 26
- Receiving yards2113rd
- Target share30.1%2nd
- Yards per target6.227th
- EPA per target+0.41712th
- Carries50
- Rush yards17718th
- Yards per carry3.532nd
- EPA per rush−0.16229th
- Rush success rate34.0%33rd
- Targets / catches19 / 12
- Receiving yards9660th
- Target share23.2%29th
- Yards per target5.174th
- EPA per target−0.26577th
- Targets / catches23 / 15
- Receiving yards12410th
- Target share28.0%3rd
- Yards per target5.432nd
- EPA per target+0.41513th
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Cardinals | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateCardinals offense vs Giants defense | 46.0%10th | 45.5%20th |
| Early-down success rateGiants offense vs Cardinals defense | 46.2%24th | 42.0%20th |
| Early-down EPA per playCardinals offense vs Giants defense | +0.04512th | +0.06725th |
| Early-down EPA per playGiants offense vs Cardinals defense | +0.05023rd | +0.00216th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateCardinals offense vs Giants defense | 41.9%13th | 56.2%30th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateGiants offense vs Cardinals defense | 44.8%23rd | 43.2%11th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playCardinals offense vs Giants defense | −0.14422nd | +0.42429th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playGiants offense vs Cardinals defense | +0.81632nd | −0.13320th |
| Red-zone TD rateCardinals offense vs Giants defense | 54.5%20th | 77.8%27th |
| Red-zone TD rateGiants offense vs Cardinals defense | 72.7%24th | 50.0%22nd |
| Red-zone success rateCardinals offense vs Giants defense | 36.1%24th | 40.0%12th |
| Red-zone success rateGiants offense vs Cardinals defense | 37.5%11th | 43.5%12th |
On early downs the Cardinals succeed on 46.0% of plays (10th) against a Giants defense that allows 45.5% (20th); on 3rd down they convert 41.9% (13th) against a defense allowing 56.2% (30th). On early downs the Giants succeed on 42.0% of plays (20th) against a Cardinals defense that allows 46.2% (24th); on 3rd down they convert 43.2% (11th) against a defense allowing 44.8% (23rd). The Cardinals score touchdowns on 54.5% of red-zone trips (20th). The Giants score touchdowns on 50.0% of red-zone trips (22nd).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Cardinals | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Mike LaFleur | John Harbaugh |
| Offensive coordinator | Nathaniel Hackett | Matt Nagy |
| Defensive coordinator | Nick Rallis | Dennard Wilson |
| Offense tendencies | Cardinals | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.1% | 0.5%10th-highest | −9.0%30th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.4% | 62.8%11th-highest | 52.5%29th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 54.9% | 57.3%11th-highest | 45.7%30th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 58.8% | 54.6%19th-highest | 54.2%21st-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.1% | 8.7%7th-highest | 4.5%18th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 33.0 | 33.514th-slowest | 36.51st-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.3% | 6.8%32nd | 14.0%20th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.6% | 1.7%32nd | 2.3%31st |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.2% | 4.1%32nd | 8.3%19th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.0% | 4.1%6th | 7.5%23rd |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.90% | 0.51%3rd | 1.13%10th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 60.6 | 65.36th-most | 59.019th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 62.7% | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 |
| Defense | Cardinals | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.0% | 4.4%24th | 1.0%31st |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.3% | 19.8%27th | 13.6%11th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.6% | 11.6%27th | 5.8%9th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.2% | 11.7%26th | 13.1%30th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.90% | 1.80%15th | 2.42%10th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.8% | 11.1%28th | 6.7%32nd |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.8% | 13.8%9th | 19.4%29th |
The Cardinals pass more often than down, distance and score would suggest (0.5% pass rate over expected, 10th-highest), while the Giants sit at −9.0% (30th-highest). In neutral situations the Cardinals take 33.5 seconds between snaps and the Giants 36.5, so the Cardinals play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Cardinals have gone for it 3 of 7 times and the Giants 1 of 1.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 4 times since 2015: the Cardinals won 3 and the Giants 1. In the most recent meeting (September 17, 2023), the Giants won 31-28; the Cardinals averaged +0.178 EPA per play; the Giants averaged +0.222 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 2023 | Giants 31, Cardinals 28 Giants won | Giants -5 Cardinals covered | 40 over | Cardinals +0.178 · Giants +0.222 |
| Dec 13, 2020 | Cardinals 26, Giants 7 Cardinals won | Cardinals -3 Cardinals covered | 47 under | Cardinals +0.047 · Giants −0.372 |
| Oct 20, 2019 | Cardinals 27, Giants 21 Cardinals won | Giants -3.5 Cardinals covered | 49.5 under | Cardinals +0.082 · Giants −0.194 |
| Dec 24, 2017 | Giants 0, Cardinals 23 Cardinals won | Cardinals -3 Cardinals covered | 39 under | Cardinals −0.181 · Giants −0.467 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
Arizona Cardinals
- Arizona Cardinals team stats
- Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys (Nov 1)
- Denver Broncos 30, Arizona Cardinals 16 (Oct 25)
- Arizona Cardinals 18, Los Angeles Rams 16 (Oct 18)
- Detroit Lions 45, Arizona Cardinals 21 (Oct 11)
New York Giants
- New York Giants team stats
- New York Giants 27, Houston Texans 21 (Oct 25)
- New Orleans Saints 34, New York Giants 27 (Oct 18)
- New York Giants 27, Washington Commanders 27 (Oct 11)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on October 4, 2026
- Indianapolis Colts 30, Washington Commanders 13 (Oct 4)
- Tennessee Titans 18, Baltimore Ravens 24 (Oct 4)
- New England Patriots 29, Buffalo Bills 26 (Oct 4)
- New York Jets 12, Chicago Bears 23 (Oct 4)
- Jacksonville Jaguars 22, Cincinnati Bengals 17 (Oct 4)
- Dallas Cowboys 34, Houston Texans 30 (Oct 4)
- Los Angeles Rams 24, Philadelphia Eagles 20 (Oct 4)
- Green Bay Packers 17, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 (Oct 4)
- Miami Dolphins 10, Minnesota Vikings 15 (Oct 4)
- Kansas City Chiefs 30, Las Vegas Raiders 27 (Oct 4)
- Denver Broncos 14, San Francisco 49ers 24 (Oct 4)
- Los Angeles Chargers 23, Seattle Seahawks 30 (Oct 4)
- Detroit Lions 26, Carolina Panthers 32 (Oct 4)
Dig deeper
Follow the market every day
See every game's current line on the odds board, or check our fully tracked results.
Odds boardTracked results