Denver Broncos vs San Francisco 49ers Final — October 4, 2026
DENStarting quarterbacksexpected startersSF
DENOffense2026 regular season to dateSFDENDefenseSFDENRecent formSFInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
DENRest & travelSFDENKey injuriesSFAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 34 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
No key players listed out, doubtful or questionable.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Broncos (2-1) visited the 49ers (3-0) at Levi's Stadium on Sunday, October 4 at 4:25 PM ET in Week 4.
The Broncos have the 20th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 21st-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the 49ers have the 1st-ranked offense and the 16th-ranked defense. When the Broncos have the ball, a 20th-ranked offense (−0.057 EPA per play) meets a 16th-ranked defense (−0.007 allowed); when the 49ers have it, a 1st-ranked offense (+0.357) meets a 21st-ranked defense (+0.045 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Broncos offense is at 41.5% (21st) and the 49ers offense at 56.9% (1st). Through the air, the Broncos average −0.072 EPA per dropback (24th) against a 49ers pass defense ranked 18th; the 49ers average +0.665 (1st) against a Broncos pass defense ranked 11th. The Broncos score 20.0 points per game (21st) and allow 23.3 (17th); the 49ers score 32.7 (2nd) and allow 16.7 (3rd).
Brock Purdy has a 65.2% success rate (1st of 34 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Bo Nix's 43.4% (24th). Per dropback, Purdy is at +0.665 EPA to Nix's −0.095, with 9 touchdown passes and 1 interception to Nix's 4 and 3.
The Broncos are 2-1 and 2-1 against the spread; their last game was a 30-26 win over the Rams. The 49ers are 3-0 and 2-1 against the spread; their last game was a 36-30 win over the Cardinals.
The 49ers closed as 3-point favorites at home against the Broncos. The spread closed where it opened. The total closed at 48.5, up from 46.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Broncos +138, 49ers -164) prices the Broncos at 40% and the 49ers at 60%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Denver Broncos 14, San Francisco 49ers 24
San Francisco 49ers won by 10.
- Against the closing spread (San Francisco 49ers -3): San Francisco 49ers covered.
- Combined score 38 vs the closing total of 48.5: Under.
- San Francisco 49ers closed at -164 on the moneyline (a 60% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 2 points toward San Francisco 49ers.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Denver Broncos 40%, San Francisco 49ers 60%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q2 14:30 — San Francisco 49ers ball, 4th & 1 at DEN 3413-B.Purdy up the middle to DEN 34 for no gain (49-A.Singleton).Denver Broncos 42% → 52% (+10 pts) · Drive 4 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 9:52 — San Francisco 49ers ball, 4th & 7 at SF 1115-C.Waitman punts 61 yards to DEN 28, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-M.Mims to DEN 29 for 1 yard (33-S.Neal). FUMBLES (33-S.Neal), RECOVERED by SF-33-S.Neal at DEN 28. 33-S.Neal to DEN 28 for no gain (19-M.Mims).San Francisco 49ers 50% → 69% (+20 pts) · Drive 13 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 2:48 — Denver Broncos ball, 3rd & 6 at DEN 19(Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep right to 13-P.Bryant to DEN 49 for 30 yards (27-J.Brown; 2-D.Lenoir). DEN-13-P.Bryant was injured during the play.Denver Broncos 16% → 24% (+8 pts) · Drive 15 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 4:10 — Denver Broncos ball, 1st & 10 at SF 13(Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 17-J.Waddle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Denver Broncos 10% → 18% (+8 pts) · Drive 17 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 2:25 — San Francisco 49ers ball, 2nd & 8 at SF 44(Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 85-G.Kittle for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN.San Francisco 49ers 87% → 98% (+11 pts) · Drive 18 in Drive X-Ray
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, San Francisco 49ers would win 87% of the time (Denver Broncos 13%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured San Francisco 49ers. Here is where that came from.
| Broncos | Points added | 49ers |
|---|---|---|
| -4.2 | Passingdropbacks | -2.7 |
| -0.4 | Rushingdesigned runs | -7.2 |
| +7.2 | Explosive plays3 plays · 10 plays | +14.3 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 1 giveaways | +6.5 |
| +3.5 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +0.4 |
| -4.3 | Penalties7 for 44 yds · 1 for 5 yds | +0.3 |
| +3.2 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 1 · 2 of 3 | +3.0 |
| +5.0 | All plays | +14.6 |
The biggest single gap: explosive plays, worth about 7.1 points to San Francisco 49ers. The final margin was 10.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
San Francisco 49ers closed as the market favourite at 60% and won.
The line moved toward San Francisco 49ers before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Broncos +3 (-113)
Broncos +3 (-110)
49ers -153 58%
49ers -164 60%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
Jaylen Waddle has 150 receiving yards for the Broncos (31st of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 23.0%. J.K. Dobbins has 121 rushing yards on 35 carries (31st of 44 qualified running backs). Mike Evans has 137 receiving yards for the 49ers (38th of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 19.8%. Christian McCaffrey has 166 rushing yards on 35 carries (22nd of 44 qualified running backs).
- Carries35
- Rush yards12131st
- Yards per carry3.533rd
- EPA per rush−0.18034th
- Rush success rate25.7%43rd
- Targets / catches20 / 11
- Receiving yards15031st
- Target share23.0%30th
- Yards per target7.549th
- EPA per target+0.02562nd
- Targets / catches8 / 5
- Receiving yards6032nd
- Target share9.2%33rd
- Yards per target7.514th
- EPA per target+0.22219th
- Carries35
- Rush yards16622nd
- Yards per carry4.710th
- EPA per rush+0.0517th
- Rush success rate51.4%4th
- Targets / catches16 / 12
- Receiving yards13738th
- Target share19.8%41st
- Yards per target8.639th
- EPA per target+1.3993rd
- Targets / catches16 / 12
- Receiving yards1745th
- Target share19.8%10th
- Yards per target10.95th
- EPA per target+0.6505th
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Broncos | 49ers |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateBroncos offense vs 49ers defense | 40.5%23rd | 45.5%20th |
| Early-down success rate49ers offense vs Broncos defense | 38.4%6th | 54.9%2nd |
| Early-down EPA per playBroncos offense vs 49ers defense | +0.06011th | −0.0578th |
| Early-down EPA per play49ers offense vs Broncos defense | +0.03721st | +0.2532nd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateBroncos offense vs 49ers defense | 37.1%21st | 42.9%20th |
| 3rd-down conversion rate49ers offense vs Broncos defense | 48.9%27th | 63.0%1st |
| 3rd-down EPA per playBroncos offense vs 49ers defense | −0.46332nd | +0.20323rd |
| 3rd-down EPA per play49ers offense vs Broncos defense | −0.18611th | +0.8691st |
| Red-zone TD rateBroncos offense vs 49ers defense | 66.7%9th | 40.0%6th |
| Red-zone TD rate49ers offense vs Broncos defense | 41.7%7th | 90.9%1st |
| Red-zone success rateBroncos offense vs 49ers defense | 33.3%25th | 43.6%16th |
| Red-zone success rate49ers offense vs Broncos defense | 35.7%8th | 60.0%2nd |
On early downs the Broncos succeed on 40.5% of plays (23rd) against a 49ers defense that allows 45.5% (20th); on 3rd down they convert 37.1% (21st) against a defense allowing 42.9% (20th). On early downs the 49ers succeed on 54.9% of plays (2nd) against a Broncos defense that allows 38.4% (6th); on 3rd down they convert 63.0% (1st) against a defense allowing 48.9% (27th). The Broncos score touchdowns on 66.7% of red-zone trips (9th). The 49ers score touchdowns on 90.9% of red-zone trips (1st).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Broncos | 49ers |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Sean Payton | Kyle Shanahan |
| Offensive coordinator | Davis Webb | Klay Kubiak |
| Defensive coordinator | Vance Joseph | Raheem Morris |
| Offense tendencies | Broncos | 49ers |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.1% | −1.5%16th-highest | 4.6%1st-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.4% | 61.6%16th-highest | 55.6%25th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 54.9% | 55.6%16th-highest | 49.6%28th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 58.8% | 67.3%10th-highest | 41.9%32nd-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.1% | 6.2%12th-highest | 0.6%31st-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 33.0 | 32.423rd-slowest | 33.513th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.3% | 13.8%22nd | 22.5%3rd |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.6% | 8.5%18th | 13.5%2nd |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.2% | 9.7%15th | 11.3%10th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.0% | 5.0%10th | 0.0%1st |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.90% | 2.44%23rd | 0.62%5th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 60.6 | 54.030th-most | 53.331st-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 62.7% | 0 of 4 | 0 of 1 |
| Defense | Broncos | 49ers |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.0% | 6.6%14th | 5.5%22nd |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.3% | 15.8%18th | 9.6%4th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.6% | 9.6%20th | 3.8%2nd |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.2% | 9.1%18th | 3.7%1st |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.90% | 2.01%12th | 1.04%28th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.8% | 21.3%4th | 16.4%14th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.8% | 13.1%6th | 7.9%1st |
The Broncos run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−1.5% pass rate over expected, 16th-highest), while the 49ers sit at 4.6% (1st-highest). In neutral situations the Broncos take 32.4 seconds between snaps and the 49ers 33.5, so the Broncos play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Broncos have gone for it 0 of 4 times and the 49ers 0 of 1.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 2 times since 2015: the Broncos won 1 and the 49ers 1. In the most recent meeting (September 25, 2022), the Broncos won 11-10; the Broncos averaged −0.245 EPA per play; the 49ers averaged −0.303 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2022 | 49ers 10, Broncos 11 Broncos won | 49ers -1 Broncos covered | 44 under | Broncos −0.245 · 49ers −0.303 |
| Dec 9, 2018 | Broncos 14, 49ers 20 49ers won | Broncos -3 49ers covered | 45.5 under | Broncos −0.103 · 49ers +0.053 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
Denver Broncos
- Denver Broncos team stats
- Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (Nov 1)
- Denver Broncos 30, Arizona Cardinals 16 (Oct 25)
- Seattle Seahawks 14, Denver Broncos 17 (Oct 15)
- Denver Broncos 23, Los Angeles Chargers 17 (Oct 11)
San Francisco 49ers
- San Francisco 49ers team stats
- San Francisco 49ers 20, Atlanta Falcons 29 (Oct 25)
- Washington Commanders 17, San Francisco 49ers 23 (Oct 19)
- San Francisco 49ers 32, Seattle Seahawks 29 (Oct 11)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on October 4, 2026
- Indianapolis Colts 30, Washington Commanders 13 (Oct 4)
- Tennessee Titans 18, Baltimore Ravens 24 (Oct 4)
- New England Patriots 29, Buffalo Bills 26 (Oct 4)
- New York Jets 12, Chicago Bears 23 (Oct 4)
- Jacksonville Jaguars 22, Cincinnati Bengals 17 (Oct 4)
- Dallas Cowboys 34, Houston Texans 30 (Oct 4)
- Arizona Cardinals 24, New York Giants 36 (Oct 4)
- Los Angeles Rams 24, Philadelphia Eagles 20 (Oct 4)
- Green Bay Packers 17, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 (Oct 4)
- Miami Dolphins 10, Minnesota Vikings 15 (Oct 4)
- Kansas City Chiefs 30, Las Vegas Raiders 27 (Oct 4)
- Los Angeles Chargers 23, Seattle Seahawks 30 (Oct 4)
- Detroit Lions 26, Carolina Panthers 32 (Oct 4)
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