Los Angeles Rams vs Philadelphia Eagles Final — October 4, 2026
LARStarting quarterbacksexpected startersPHI
LAROffense2026 regular season to datePHILARDefensePHILARRecent formPHIInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
LARRest & travelPHILARKey injuriesPHIAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 34 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Rams (1-2) visited the Eagles (2-1) at Lincoln Financial Field on Sunday, October 4 at 1:00 PM ET in Week 4.
The Rams have the 15th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 8th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Eagles have the 19th-ranked offense and the 25th-ranked defense. When the Rams have the ball, a 15th-ranked offense (+0.013 EPA per play) meets a 25th-ranked defense (+0.076 allowed); when the Eagles have it, a 19th-ranked offense (−0.046) meets a 8th-ranked defense (−0.070 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Rams offense is at 45.8% (12th) and the Eagles offense at 38.8% (28th). Through the air, the Rams average +0.072 EPA per dropback (17th) against a Eagles pass defense ranked 23rd; the Eagles average −0.062 (23rd) against a Rams pass defense ranked 4th. The Rams score 20.3 points per game (20th) and allow 21.0 (13th); the Eagles score 18.3 (23rd) and allow 23.0 (16th).
Matthew Stafford has a 44.4% success rate (21st of 34 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Jalen Hurts' 41.3% (27th). Per dropback, Stafford is at +0.066 EPA to Hurts' −0.009, with 6 touchdown passes and 4 interceptions to Hurts' 5 and 3.
The Rams are 1-2 and 1-2 against the spread; their last game was a 30-26 loss to the Broncos. The Eagles are 2-1 and 0-3 against the spread; their last game was a 27-7 loss to the Bears.
The Rams closed as 3.5-point road favorites, with the Eagles getting the points at home. The spread opened at Rams -3. The total closed at 43, down from 44.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Rams -190, Eagles +159) prices the Rams at 63% and the Eagles at 37%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Los Angeles Rams 24, Philadelphia Eagles 20
Los Angeles Rams won by 4.
- Against the closing spread (Philadelphia Eagles +3.5): Los Angeles Rams covered.
- Combined score 44 vs the closing total of 43: Over.
- Los Angeles Rams closed at -190 on the moneyline (a 63% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 5 points toward Los Angeles Rams.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Los Angeles Rams 63%, Philadelphia Eagles 37%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 12:03 — Los Angeles Rams ball, 1st & 5 at LA 309-M.Stafford pass deep right intended for 4-K.Mumpfield INTERCEPTED by 24-A.Mukuba at LA 49. 24-A.Mukuba pushed ob at LA 28 for 21 yards (77-A.Jackson).Philadelphia Eagles 30% → 43% (+13 pts) · Drive 2 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 0:34 — Los Angeles Rams ball, 1st & 10 at LA 28(Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right intended for 12-P.Nacua INTERCEPTED by 33-C.DeJean (35-M.Carter) at PHI 40. 33-C.DeJean to LA 35 for 25 yards (23-K.Williams).Philadelphia Eagles 44% → 57% (+13 pts) · Drive 12 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 0:09 — Philadelphia Eagles ball, 1st & 10 at LA 10(Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 80-D.Cooper for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LA-22-T.McDuffie, Illegal Contact, declined.Philadelphia Eagles 62% → 72% (+11 pts) · Drive 13 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 5:20 — Los Angeles Rams ball, 3rd & 10 at PHI 35(Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 23-K.Williams pushed ob at PHI 26 for 9 yards (33-C.DeJean). PENALTY on PHI-31-J.Jones, Unnecessary Roughness, 13 yards, enforced at PHI 26.Los Angeles Rams 12% → 21% (+9 pts) · Drive 23 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 1:17 — Los Angeles Rams ball, 2nd & 7 at PHI 723-K.Williams left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Los Angeles Rams 71% → 86% (+16 pts) · Drive 25 in Drive X-Ray
Los Angeles Rams won after falling as low as 4% (Q4 8:17).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, Los Angeles Rams would win 89% of the time (Philadelphia Eagles 11%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Los Angeles Rams. Here is where that came from.
| Rams | Points added | Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| -1.8 | Passingdropbacks | -10.8 |
| -2.0 | Rushingdesigned runs | -6.5 |
| +11.1 | Explosive plays7 plays · 2 plays | +1.1 |
| -8.4 | Turnovers2 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| -5.9 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +5.6 |
| -3.3 | Penalties8 for 100 yds · 10 for 57 yds | -1.6 |
| +5.6 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 3 of 5 · 2 of 4 | -0.4 |
| -4.7 | All plays | -12.6 |
The biggest single gap: special teams, worth about 11.5 points to Philadelphia Eagles. The final margin was 4.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Los Angeles Rams closed as the market favourite at 63% and won.
The line moved toward Los Angeles Rams before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Rams -3 (-105)
Rams -3.5 (-115)
Eagles +130 42%
Eagles +159 37%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
Davante Adams has 358 receiving yards for the Rams (3rd of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 27.4%. Kyren Williams has 214 rushing yards on 38 carries (9th of 44 qualified running backs). DeVonta Smith has 235 receiving yards for the Eagles (10th of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 33.3%. Saquon Barkley has 174 rushing yards on 34 carries (19th of 44 qualified running backs).
- Carries38
- Rush yards2149th
- Yards per carry5.64th
- EPA per rush−0.03019th
- Rush success rate44.7%14th
- Targets / catches29 / 18
- Receiving yards3583rd
- Target share27.4%9th
- Yards per target12.37th
- EPA per target+0.52128th
- Targets / catches13 / 10
- Receiving yards7424th
- Target share17.1%14th
- Yards per target5.730th
- EPA per target−0.22131st
- Carries34
- Rush yards17419th
- Yards per carry5.18th
- EPA per rush+0.00512th
- Rush success rate38.2%26th
- Targets / catches27 / 19
- Receiving yards23510th
- Target share33.3%2nd
- Yards per target8.738th
- EPA per target+0.04860th
- Targets / catches7 / 5
- Receiving yards81
- Target share12.5%
- Yards per target11.6
- EPA per target+1.097
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Rams | Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateRams offense vs Eagles defense | 45.5%11th | 43.5%16th |
| Early-down success rateEagles offense vs Rams defense | 39.9%8th | 35.7%30th |
| Early-down EPA per playRams offense vs Eagles defense | +0.0909th | −0.00117th |
| Early-down EPA per playEagles offense vs Rams defense | −0.01415th | −0.08023rd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateRams offense vs Eagles defense | 44.1%10th | 39.0%13th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateEagles offense vs Rams defense | 43.6%21st | 46.3%8th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playRams offense vs Eagles defense | −0.28527th | +0.14822nd |
| 3rd-down EPA per playEagles offense vs Rams defense | −0.2887th | +0.10212th |
| Red-zone TD rateRams offense vs Eagles defense | 45.5%26th | 63.6%17th |
| Red-zone TD rateEagles offense vs Rams defense | 62.5%15th | 66.7%9th |
| Red-zone success rateRams offense vs Eagles defense | 33.3%25th | 50.0%27th |
| Red-zone success rateEagles offense vs Rams defense | 34.5%7th | 42.3%16th |
On early downs the Rams succeed on 45.5% of plays (11th) against a Eagles defense that allows 43.5% (16th); on 3rd down they convert 44.1% (10th) against a defense allowing 39.0% (13th). On early downs the Eagles succeed on 35.7% of plays (30th) against a Rams defense that allows 39.9% (8th); on 3rd down they convert 46.3% (8th) against a defense allowing 43.6% (21st). The Rams score touchdowns on 45.5% of red-zone trips (26th). The Eagles score touchdowns on 66.7% of red-zone trips (9th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Rams | Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Sean McVay | Nick Sirianni |
| Offensive coordinator | Nathan Scheelhaase | Sean Mannion |
| Defensive coordinator | Chris Shula | Vic Fangio |
| Offense tendencies | Rams | Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.1% | −0.8%13th-highest | −6.7%26th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.4% | 62.0%13th-highest | 62.4%12th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 54.9% | 57.8%10th-highest | 52.4%22nd-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 58.8% | 52.6%25th-highest | 68.2%5th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.1% | 8.3%8th-highest | 16.5%1st-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 33.0 | 32.520th-slowest | 34.18th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.3% | 17.5%10th | 16.3%12th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.6% | 11.4%4th | 10.2%7th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.2% | 12.3%5th | 6.2%25th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.0% | 4.2%7th | 7.5%24th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.90% | 3.12%26th | 2.94%25th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 60.6 | 64.08th-most | 56.726th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 62.7% | 2 of 2 | 1 of 3 |
| Defense | Rams | Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.0% | 2.8%29th | 3.1%28th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.3% | 10.8%7th | 16.0%20th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.6% | 4.9%5th | 8.5%15th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.2% | 6.8%6th | 6.8%7th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.90% | 1.66%18th | 0.00%32nd |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.8% | 12.4%25th | 8.2%31st |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.8% | 20.2%30th | 16.0%17th |
The Rams run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−0.8% pass rate over expected, 13th-highest), while the Eagles sit at −6.7% (26th-highest). In neutral situations the Rams take 32.5 seconds between snaps and the Eagles 34.1, so the Rams play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Rams have gone for it 2 of 2 times and the Eagles 1 of 3.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 7 times since 2015: the Rams won 1 and the Eagles 6. In the most recent meeting (September 21, 2025), the Eagles won 33-26; the Rams averaged −0.035 EPA per play; the Eagles averaged +0.017 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21, 2025 | Rams 26, Eagles 33 Eagles won | Eagles -3.5 Eagles covered | 45.5 over | Rams −0.035 · Eagles +0.017 |
| Jan 19, 2025 playoffs | Rams 22, Eagles 28 Eagles won | Eagles -7 Rams covered | 43.5 over | Rams −0.068 · Eagles +0.083 |
| Nov 24, 2024 | Eagles 37, Rams 20 Eagles won | Eagles -3 Eagles covered | 49 over | Rams −0.018 · Eagles +0.340 |
| Oct 8, 2023 | Eagles 23, Rams 14 Eagles won | Eagles -3.5 Eagles covered | 50.5 under | Rams −0.003 · Eagles +0.149 |
| Sep 20, 2020 | Rams 37, Eagles 19 Rams won | Eagles -2 Rams covered | 46 over | Rams +0.438 · Eagles −0.093 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
Los Angeles Rams
- Los Angeles Rams team stats
- Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams (Nov 1)
- Los Angeles Rams 35, Las Vegas Raiders 21 (Oct 25)
- Arizona Cardinals 18, Los Angeles Rams 16 (Oct 18)
- Buffalo Bills 37, Los Angeles Rams 34 (Oct 12)
Philadelphia Eagles
- Philadelphia Eagles team stats
- Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders (Nov 1)
- Dallas Cowboys 38, Philadelphia Eagles 21 (Oct 26)
- Carolina Panthers 25, Philadelphia Eagles 14 (Oct 18)
- Philadelphia Eagles 17, Jacksonville Jaguars 19 (Oct 11)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on October 4, 2026
- Indianapolis Colts 30, Washington Commanders 13 (Oct 4)
- Tennessee Titans 18, Baltimore Ravens 24 (Oct 4)
- New England Patriots 29, Buffalo Bills 26 (Oct 4)
- New York Jets 12, Chicago Bears 23 (Oct 4)
- Jacksonville Jaguars 22, Cincinnati Bengals 17 (Oct 4)
- Dallas Cowboys 34, Houston Texans 30 (Oct 4)
- Arizona Cardinals 24, New York Giants 36 (Oct 4)
- Green Bay Packers 17, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 (Oct 4)
- Miami Dolphins 10, Minnesota Vikings 15 (Oct 4)
- Kansas City Chiefs 30, Las Vegas Raiders 27 (Oct 4)
- Denver Broncos 14, San Francisco 49ers 24 (Oct 4)
- Los Angeles Chargers 23, Seattle Seahawks 30 (Oct 4)
- Detroit Lions 26, Carolina Panthers 32 (Oct 4)
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