New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Final — October 4, 2026
NEStarting quarterbacksexpected startersBUF
NEOffense2026 regular season to dateBUFNEDefenseBUFNERecent formBUFInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
NERest & travelBUFNEKey injuriesBUFAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 34 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Patriots (1-2) visited the Bills (3-0) at Highmark Stadium on Sunday, October 4 at 1:00 PM ET in Week 4.
The Patriots have the 28th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 11th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Bills have the 2nd-ranked offense and the 24th-ranked defense. When the Patriots have the ball, a 28th-ranked offense (−0.146 EPA per play) meets a 24th-ranked defense (+0.075 allowed); when the Bills have it, a 2nd-ranked offense (+0.218) meets a 11th-ranked defense (−0.040 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Patriots offense is at 39.9% (26th) and the Bills offense at 50.0% (6th). Through the air, the Patriots average −0.122 EPA per dropback (27th) against a Bills pass defense ranked 21st; the Bills average +0.336 (3rd) against a Patriots pass defense ranked 6th. The Patriots score 12.0 points per game (31st) and allow 17.0 (6th); the Bills score 33.7 (1st) and allow 26.0 (21st).
Josh Allen has a 51.3% success rate (7th of 34 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Drake Maye's 46.1% (18th). Per dropback, Allen is at +0.349 EPA to Maye's −0.129, with 5 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions to Maye's 1 and 6.
The Patriots are 1-2 and 1-1-1 against the spread; their last game was a 35-6 loss to the Jaguars. The Bills are 3-0 and 3-0 against the spread; their last game was a 24-16 win over the Chargers.
The Bills closed as 7-point favorites at home against the Patriots. The spread opened at Bills -6.5. The total closed at 49.5, up from 48.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Patriots +268, Bills -340) prices the Patriots at 26% and the Bills at 74%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
New England Patriots 29, Buffalo Bills 26
New England Patriots won by 3.
- Against the closing spread (Buffalo Bills -7): New England Patriots covered.
- Combined score 55 vs the closing total of 49.5: Over.
- New England Patriots closed at +268 on the moneyline (a 26% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
The market barely moved from open to close.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (New England Patriots 26%, Buffalo Bills 74%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q2 0:16 — New England Patriots ball, 1st & 10 at NE 36(Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left intended for 87-R.Doubs INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Alford at NE 46. 23-D.Alford to NE 9 for 37 yards (55-J.Wilson).Buffalo Bills 63% → 79% (+16 pts) · Drive 10 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 13:26 — Buffalo Bills ball, 3rd & 7 at NE 42(Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 0-K.Coleman to NE 20 for 22 yards (28-K.Vildor).Buffalo Bills 52% → 65% (+14 pts) · Drive 18 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 5:06 — Buffalo Bills ball, 3rd & 4 at BUF 42(Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 0-K.Coleman to NE 34 for 24 yards (31-K.Byard).Buffalo Bills 62% → 76% (+14 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 1:55 — New England Patriots ball, 3rd & 5 at BUF 23(Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 86-E.Chism for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.New England Patriots 23% → 63% (+40 pts) · Drive 21 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 1:14 — Buffalo Bills ball, 2nd & 6 at BUF 40(Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left intended for 5-J.Palmer INTERCEPTED by 4-C.Woodson at NE 19. 4-C.Woodson to NE 19 for no gain (5-J.Palmer).New England Patriots 63% → 80% (+17 pts) · Drive 22 in Drive X-Ray
New England Patriots won after falling as low as 16% (Q4 3:42).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, Buffalo Bills would win 52% of the time (New England Patriots 48%). The chances each team created were close to even.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above had the chances close to even. Here is where each side gained and lost.
| Patriots | Points added | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| +2.1 | Passingdropbacks | -5.5 |
| -4.8 | Rushingdesigned runs | -0.8 |
| +19.9 | Explosive plays10 plays · 8 plays | +15.8 |
| -8.6 | Turnovers2 giveaways · 2 giveaways | -3.5 |
| +0.8 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +2.7 |
| -0.1 | Penalties5 for 30 yds · 5 for 31 yds | +1.0 |
| +5.2 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 3 of 3 · 2 of 4 | -0.6 |
| +14.4 | All plays | +9.2 |
The biggest single gap: passing, worth about 7.5 points to New England Patriots. The final margin was 3.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Buffalo Bills closed as the market favourite at 74% and lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Patriots +6.5 (-104)
Patriots +7 (-115)
Bills -335 74%
Bills -340 74%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
Mack Hollins has 156 receiving yards for the Patriots (28th of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 19.5%. Rhamondre Stevenson has 116 rushing yards on 31 carries (33rd of 44 qualified running backs). DJ Moore has 167 receiving yards for the Bills (26th of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 22.0%. James Cook has 346 rushing yards on 58 carries (3rd of 44 qualified running backs).
- Carries31
- Rush yards11633rd
- Yards per carry3.729th
- EPA per rush−0.08625th
- Rush success rate35.5%30th
- Targets / catches16 / 12
- Receiving yards15628th
- Target share19.5%42nd
- Yards per target9.827th
- EPA per target+0.55425th
- Targets / catches10 / 7
- Receiving yards7127th
- Target share12.2%26th
- Yards per target7.118th
- EPA per target−0.41634th
- Carries58
- Rush yards3463rd
- Yards per carry6.01st
- EPA per rush+0.0942nd
- Rush success rate51.7%2nd
- Targets / catches18 / 11
- Receiving yards16726th
- Target share22.0%34th
- Yards per target9.334th
- EPA per target+0.27444th
- Targets / catches17 / 14
- Receiving yards2631st
- Target share20.7%8th
- Yards per target15.51st
- EPA per target+0.7723rd
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Patriots | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success ratePatriots offense vs Bills defense | 39.6%27th | 48.7%28th |
| Early-down success rateBills offense vs Patriots defense | 42.6%13th | 47.9%7th |
| Early-down EPA per playPatriots offense vs Bills defense | −0.13729th | +0.13430th |
| Early-down EPA per playBills offense vs Patriots defense | −0.0743rd | +0.1584th |
| 3rd-down conversion ratePatriots offense vs Bills defense | 32.5%29th | 40.5%15th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateBills offense vs Patriots defense | 34.3%7th | 56.2%3rd |
| 3rd-down EPA per playPatriots offense vs Bills defense | −0.32229th | −0.3336th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playBills offense vs Patriots defense | −0.14712th | +0.4772nd |
| Red-zone TD ratePatriots offense vs Bills defense | 14.3%32nd | 66.7%19th |
| Red-zone TD rateBills offense vs Patriots defense | 62.5%15th | 75.0%5th |
| Red-zone success ratePatriots offense vs Bills defense | 13.3%32nd | 48.6%25th |
| Red-zone success rateBills offense vs Patriots defense | 36.0%10th | 51.7%7th |
On early downs the Patriots succeed on 39.6% of plays (27th) against a Bills defense that allows 48.7% (28th); on 3rd down they convert 32.5% (29th) against a defense allowing 40.5% (15th). On early downs the Bills succeed on 47.9% of plays (7th) against a Patriots defense that allows 42.6% (13th); on 3rd down they convert 56.2% (3rd) against a defense allowing 34.3% (7th). The Patriots score touchdowns on 14.3% of red-zone trips (32nd). The Bills score touchdowns on 75.0% of red-zone trips (5th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Patriots | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Mike Vrabel | Joe Brady |
| Offensive coordinator | Josh McDaniels | Pete Carmichael |
| Defensive coordinator | Zak Kuhr | Jim Leonhard |
| Offense tendencies | Patriots | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.1% | −2.2%19th-highest | −1.2%15th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.4% | 59.6%18th-highest | 56.7%24th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 54.9% | 53.7%20th-highest | 52.8%21st-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 58.8% | 51.1%26th-highest | 43.6%31st-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.1% | 1.1%30th-highest | 3.9%22nd-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 33.0 | 32.817th-slowest | 31.328th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.3% | 14.4%19th | 23.7%1st |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.6% | 9.3%14th | 14.0%1st |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.2% | 5.6%28th | 15.6%1st |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.0% | 8.5%29th | 7.8%27th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.90% | 4.49%32nd | 2.78%24th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 60.6 | 59.317th-most | 59.716th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 62.7% | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
| Defense | Patriots | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.0% | 6.7%12th | 7.3%9th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.3% | 10.3%6th | 19.1%26th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.6% | 5.2%6th | 12.2%29th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.2% | 8.7%13th | 10.8%21st |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.90% | 1.73%17th | 1.51%21st |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.8% | 17.3%11th | 21.8%3rd |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.8% | 16.0%17th | 16.8%21st |
The Patriots run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−2.2% pass rate over expected, 19th-highest), while the Bills sit at −1.2% (15th-highest). In neutral situations the Patriots take 32.8 seconds between snaps and the Bills 31.3, so the Bills play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Patriots have gone for it 2 of 3 times and the Bills 2 of 2.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 23 times since 2015: the Patriots won 13 and the Bills 10. In the most recent meeting (December 14, 2025), the Bills won 35-31; the Bills averaged +0.261 EPA per play; the Patriots averaged +0.244 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2025 | Bills 35, Patriots 31 Bills won | Bills -2.5 Bills covered | 49.5 over | Bills +0.261 · Patriots +0.244 |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Patriots 23, Bills 20 Patriots won | Bills -7.5 Patriots covered | 49.5 under | Bills +0.039 · Patriots +0.062 |
| Jan 5, 2025 | Bills 16, Patriots 23 Patriots won | Bills -3 Patriots covered | 36.5 over | Bills −0.067 · Patriots +0.033 |
| Dec 22, 2024 | Patriots 21, Bills 24 Bills won | Bills -14 Patriots covered | 48 under | Bills +0.034 · Patriots −0.025 |
| Dec 31, 2023 | Patriots 21, Bills 27 Bills won | Bills -15 Patriots covered | 40 over | Bills −0.065 · Patriots −0.283 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
New England Patriots
- New England Patriots team stats
- New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (Nov 1)
- New England Patriots 24, Chicago Bears 30 (Oct 22)
- New York Jets 19, New England Patriots 26 (Oct 18)
- Las Vegas Raiders 17, New England Patriots 45 (Oct 11)
Buffalo Bills
- Buffalo Bills team stats
- Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (Nov 1)
- Buffalo Bills 33, Las Vegas Raiders 30 (Oct 18)
- Buffalo Bills 37, Los Angeles Rams 34 (Oct 12)
- Los Angeles Chargers 16, Buffalo Bills 24 (Sep 27)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on October 4, 2026
- Indianapolis Colts 30, Washington Commanders 13 (Oct 4)
- Tennessee Titans 18, Baltimore Ravens 24 (Oct 4)
- New York Jets 12, Chicago Bears 23 (Oct 4)
- Jacksonville Jaguars 22, Cincinnati Bengals 17 (Oct 4)
- Dallas Cowboys 34, Houston Texans 30 (Oct 4)
- Arizona Cardinals 24, New York Giants 36 (Oct 4)
- Los Angeles Rams 24, Philadelphia Eagles 20 (Oct 4)
- Green Bay Packers 17, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 (Oct 4)
- Miami Dolphins 10, Minnesota Vikings 15 (Oct 4)
- Kansas City Chiefs 30, Las Vegas Raiders 27 (Oct 4)
- Denver Broncos 14, San Francisco 49ers 24 (Oct 4)
- Los Angeles Chargers 23, Seattle Seahawks 30 (Oct 4)
- Detroit Lions 26, Carolina Panthers 32 (Oct 4)
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