Los Angeles Chargers vs Seattle Seahawks Final — October 4, 2026
LACStarting quarterbacksexpected startersSEA
LACOffense2026 regular season to dateSEALACDefenseSEALACRecent formSEAInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
LACRest & travelSEALACKey injuriesSEAAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 34 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Chargers (0-3) visited the Seahawks (2-1) at Lumen Field on Sunday, October 4 at 4:25 PM ET in Week 4.
The Chargers have the 31st-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 18th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have the 11th-ranked offense and the 3rd-ranked defense. When the Chargers have the ball, a 31st-ranked offense (−0.188 EPA per play) meets a 3rd-ranked defense (−0.156 allowed); when the Seahawks have it, a 11th-ranked offense (+0.051) meets a 18th-ranked defense (+0.017 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Chargers offense is at 40.7% (23rd) and the Seahawks offense at 46.1% (11th). Through the air, the Chargers average −0.133 EPA per dropback (28th) against a Seahawks pass defense ranked 10th; the Seahawks average +0.285 (5th) against a Chargers pass defense ranked 24th. The Chargers score 14.7 points per game (29th) and allow 25.3 (20th); the Seahawks score 25.0 (13th) and allow 16.7 (3rd).
Drew Lock has a 51.0% success rate (9th of 34 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Justin Herbert's 39.3% (29th). Per dropback, Lock is at +0.476 EPA to Herbert's −0.133, with 4 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions to Herbert's 3 and 4.
The Chargers are 0-3 and 0-3 against the spread; their last game was a 24-16 loss to the Bills. The Seahawks are 2-1 and 1-1-1 against the spread; their last game was a 33-31 loss to the Commanders.
The Seahawks closed as 7-point favorites at home against the Chargers. The spread opened at Seahawks -6.5. The total closed at 42.5, down from 44.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Chargers +270, Seahawks -345) prices the Chargers at 26% and the Seahawks at 74%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Los Angeles Chargers 23, Seattle Seahawks 30
Seattle Seahawks won by 7.
- Against the closing spread (Seattle Seahawks -7): push.
- Combined score 53 vs the closing total of 42.5: Over.
- Seattle Seahawks closed at -345 on the moneyline (a 74% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 2 points toward Seattle Seahawks.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Los Angeles Chargers 26%, Seattle Seahawks 74%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 14:53 — Los Angeles Chargers ball, 1st & 10 at LAC 3110-J.Herbert pass short middle intended for 86-O.Gadsden INTERCEPTED by 32-D.Thomas at LAC 45. 32-D.Thomas to LAC 45 for no gain (86-O.Gadsden).Seattle Seahawks 74% → 81% (+8 pts) · Drive 1 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 14:46 — Seattle Seahawks ball, 1st & 10 at LAC 4514-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 23-E.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 45-T.Tuipulotu at LAC 44. 45-T.Tuipulotu to LAC 48 for 4 yards (23-E.Wilson).Los Angeles Chargers 19% → 28% (+10 pts) · Drive 2 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 10:13 — Seattle Seahawks ball, 4th & 13 at SEA 324-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to LAC 23, Center-41-C.Stoll. 12-D.Davis MUFFS catch, touched at LAC 25, RECOVERED by SEA-57-C.O'Toole at LAC 23.Seattle Seahawks 68% → 78% (+10 pts) · Drive 4 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 8:55 — Seattle Seahawks ball, 3rd & 16 at SEA 29(Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to LAC 43 for 28 yards (22-G.Smith) [93-T.Tart].Seattle Seahawks 82% → 88% (+5 pts) · Drive 13 in Drive X-Ray
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, Seattle Seahawks would win 86% of the time (Los Angeles Chargers 14%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Seattle Seahawks. Here is where that came from.
| Chargers | Points added | Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
| -6.2 | Passingdropbacks | -7.9 |
| -1.7 | Rushingdesigned runs | -7.8 |
| +9.2 | Explosive plays7 plays · 7 plays | +13.8 |
| -13.6 | Turnovers3 giveaways · 2 giveaways | -0.2 |
| +1.6 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +1.9 |
| -0.7 | Penalties16 for 130 yds · 14 for 150 yds | +2.3 |
| +6.5 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 3 · 2 of 4 | +2.6 |
| -4.9 | All plays | +4.8 |
The biggest single gap: turnovers, worth about 13.4 points to Seattle Seahawks. The final margin was 7.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Seattle Seahawks closed as the market favourite at 74% and won.
The line moved toward Seattle Seahawks before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Chargers +6.5 (-107)
Chargers +7 (-110)
Seahawks -305 72%
Seahawks -345 74%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
Quentin Johnston has 64 receiving yards for the Chargers (78th of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 19.8%. Omarion Hampton has 193 rushing yards on 50 carries (14th of 44 qualified running backs). Jaxon Smith-Njigba has 405 receiving yards for the Seahawks (1st of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 37.9%. Emanuel Wilson has 109 rushing yards on 32 carries (34th of 44 qualified running backs).
- Carries50
- Rush yards19314th
- Yards per carry3.928th
- EPA per rush−0.32140th
- Rush success rate40.0%21st
- Targets / catches17 / 6
- Receiving yards6478th
- Target share19.8%40th
- Yards per target3.884th
- EPA per target−0.18072nd
- Targets / catches8 / 6
- Receiving yards6729th
- Target share15.1%17th
- Yards per target8.410th
- EPA per target−0.63336th
- Carries32
- Rush yards10934th
- Yards per carry3.434th
- EPA per rush−0.28537th
- Rush success rate40.6%20th
- Targets / catches36 / 27
- Receiving yards4051st
- Target share37.9%1st
- Yards per target11.212th
- EPA per target+0.80513th
- Targets / catches12 / 8
- Receiving yards9019th
- Target share12.6%25th
- Yards per target7.514th
- EPA per target−0.58235th
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Chargers | Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateChargers offense vs Seahawks defense | 43.4%15th | 34.8%2nd |
| Early-down success rateSeahawks offense vs Chargers defense | 44.5%18th | 47.1%8th |
| Early-down EPA per playChargers offense vs Seahawks defense | −0.07422nd | −0.1151st |
| Early-down EPA per playSeahawks offense vs Chargers defense | −0.00616th | +0.03713th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateChargers offense vs Seahawks defense | 35.1%24th | 26.8%2nd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateSeahawks offense vs Chargers defense | 42.1%18th | 33.3%26th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playChargers offense vs Seahawks defense | −0.36830th | −0.5572nd |
| 3rd-down EPA per playSeahawks offense vs Chargers defense | −0.00517th | +0.11110th |
| Red-zone TD rateChargers offense vs Seahawks defense | 55.6%19th | 66.7%19th |
| Red-zone TD rateSeahawks offense vs Chargers defense | 58.3%13th | 58.3%18th |
| Red-zone success rateChargers offense vs Seahawks defense | 40.0%19th | 35.7%8th |
| Red-zone success rateSeahawks offense vs Chargers defense | 33.3%6th | 38.5%21st |
On early downs the Chargers succeed on 43.4% of plays (15th) against a Seahawks defense that allows 34.8% (2nd); on 3rd down they convert 35.1% (24th) against a defense allowing 26.8% (2nd). On early downs the Seahawks succeed on 47.1% of plays (8th) against a Chargers defense that allows 44.5% (18th); on 3rd down they convert 33.3% (26th) against a defense allowing 42.1% (18th). The Chargers score touchdowns on 55.6% of red-zone trips (19th). The Seahawks score touchdowns on 58.3% of red-zone trips (18th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Chargers | Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Jim Harbaugh | Mike Macdonald |
| Offensive coordinator | Mike McDaniel | Brian Fleury |
| Defensive coordinator | Chris O'Leary | Aden Durde |
| Offense tendencies | Chargers | Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.1% | −8.5%28th-highest | −2.7%21st-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.4% | 58.8%19th-highest | 56.7%23rd-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 54.9% | 51.5%23rd-highest | 51.4%24th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 58.8% | 69.5%1st-highest | 46.6%28th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.1% | 4.5%18th-highest | 1.7%29th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 33.0 | 35.03rd-slowest | 34.94th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.3% | 15.6%17th | 19.4%4th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.6% | 8.3%19th | 9.2%16th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.2% | 9.9%14th | 9.1%16th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.0% | 7.7%25th | 3.0%4th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.90% | 3.39%29th | 2.25%21st |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 60.6 | 59.019th-most | 59.317th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 62.7% | 0 of 1 | 5 of 6 |
| Defense | Chargers | Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.0% | 6.9%11th | 6.5%15th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.3% | 14.7%15th | 5.9%1st |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.6% | 9.5%18th | 2.0%1st |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.2% | 8.1%12th | 4.3%3rd |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.90% | 3.19%3rd | 2.26%11th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.8% | 19.6%6th | 20.4%5th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.8% | 20.2%31st | 14.9%16th |
The Chargers run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−8.5% pass rate over expected, 28th-highest), while the Seahawks sit at −2.7% (21st-highest). In neutral situations the Chargers take 35.0 seconds between snaps and the Seahawks 34.9, so the Seahawks play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Chargers have gone for it 0 of 1 times and the Seahawks 5 of 6.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 2 times since 2015: the Chargers won 1 and the Seahawks 1. In the most recent meeting (October 23, 2022), the Seahawks won 37-23; the Chargers averaged −0.244 EPA per play; the Seahawks averaged +0.128 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2022 | Seahawks 37, Chargers 23 Seahawks won | Chargers -5.5 Seahawks covered | 51.5 over | Chargers −0.244 · Seahawks +0.128 |
| Nov 4, 2018 | Chargers 25, Seahawks 17 Chargers won | Seahawks -1 Chargers covered | 48.5 under | Chargers +0.197 · Seahawks −0.077 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
Los Angeles Chargers
- Los Angeles Chargers team stats
- Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams (Nov 1)
- Los Angeles Chargers 6, Kansas City Chiefs 22 (Oct 18)
- Denver Broncos 23, Los Angeles Chargers 17 (Oct 11)
- Los Angeles Chargers 16, Buffalo Bills 24 (Sep 27)
Seattle Seahawks
- Seattle Seahawks team stats
- Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks (Nov 2)
- Kansas City Chiefs 3, Seattle Seahawks 20 (Oct 25)
- Seattle Seahawks 14, Denver Broncos 17 (Oct 15)
- San Francisco 49ers 32, Seattle Seahawks 29 (Oct 11)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on October 4, 2026
- Indianapolis Colts 30, Washington Commanders 13 (Oct 4)
- Tennessee Titans 18, Baltimore Ravens 24 (Oct 4)
- New England Patriots 29, Buffalo Bills 26 (Oct 4)
- New York Jets 12, Chicago Bears 23 (Oct 4)
- Jacksonville Jaguars 22, Cincinnati Bengals 17 (Oct 4)
- Dallas Cowboys 34, Houston Texans 30 (Oct 4)
- Arizona Cardinals 24, New York Giants 36 (Oct 4)
- Los Angeles Rams 24, Philadelphia Eagles 20 (Oct 4)
- Green Bay Packers 17, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 (Oct 4)
- Miami Dolphins 10, Minnesota Vikings 15 (Oct 4)
- Kansas City Chiefs 30, Las Vegas Raiders 27 (Oct 4)
- Denver Broncos 14, San Francisco 49ers 24 (Oct 4)
- Detroit Lions 26, Carolina Panthers 32 (Oct 4)
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