Miami Dolphins vs Minnesota Vikings Final — October 4, 2026
MIAStarting quarterbacksexpected startersMIN
MIAOffense2026 regular season to dateMINMIADefenseMINMIARecent formMINInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
MIARest & travelMINMIAKey injuriesMINAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 34 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Dolphins (0-3) visited the Vikings (3-0) at U.S. Bank Stadium on Sunday, October 4 at 4:05 PM ET in Week 4.
The Dolphins have the 27th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 30th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Vikings have the 25th-ranked offense and the 1st-ranked defense. When the Dolphins have the ball, a 27th-ranked offense (−0.127 EPA per play) meets a 1st-ranked defense (−0.180 allowed); when the Vikings have it, a 25th-ranked offense (−0.119) meets a 30th-ranked defense (+0.162 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Dolphins offense is at 34.7% (31st) and the Vikings offense at 30.9% (32nd). Through the air, the Dolphins average −0.035 EPA per dropback (22nd) against a Vikings pass defense ranked 2nd; the Vikings average −0.088 (25th) against a Dolphins pass defense ranked 32nd. The Dolphins score 12.0 points per game (31st) and allow 28.7 (28th); the Vikings score 23.7 (16th) and allow 13.7 (2nd).
Carson Wentz has a 40.0% success rate (28th of 34 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Malik Willis' 37.5% (32nd). Per dropback, Wentz is at +0.076 EPA to Willis' −0.035, with 3 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions to Willis' 1 and 2.
The Dolphins are 0-3 and 0-3 against the spread; their last game was a 24-10 loss to the Chiefs. The Vikings are 3-0 and 3-0 against the spread; their last game was a 23-16 win over the Buccaneers.
The Vikings closed as 10-point favorites at home against the Dolphins. The spread closed where it opened. The total closed at 38.5, down from 41.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Dolphins +415, Vikings -555) prices the Dolphins at 19% and the Vikings at 81%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Miami Dolphins 10, Minnesota Vikings 15
Minnesota Vikings won by 5.
- Against the closing spread (Minnesota Vikings -10): Miami Dolphins covered.
- Combined score 25 vs the closing total of 38.5: Under.
- Minnesota Vikings closed at -555 on the moneyline (a 81% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Miami Dolphins.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Miami Dolphins 19%, Minnesota Vikings 81%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q2 5:50 — Miami Dolphins ball, 2nd & 8 at MIA 48(Shotgun) 2-M.Willis sacked at MIA 39 for -9 yards (15-D.Turner). FUMBLESMinnesota Vikings 85% → 91% (+6 pts) · Drive 8 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 14:08 — Miami Dolphins ball, 3rd & 5 at MIA 36(Shotgun) 0-O.Gordon left tackle pushed ob at MIN 11 for 53 yards (7-B.Murphy; 22-H.Smith).Miami Dolphins 7% → 13% (+5 pts) · Drive 12 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 12:21 — Minnesota Vikings ball, 3rd & 6 at MIN 47(Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 87-T.Hockenson to MIA 39 for 14 yards (4-J.Marshall).Minnesota Vikings 82% → 87% (+6 pts) · Drive 17 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 10:08 — Minnesota Vikings ball, 4th & 1 at MIA 3033-A.Jones up the middle to MIA 27 for 3 yards (9-J.Uche; 20-J.Brooks).Minnesota Vikings 85% → 90% (+5 pts) · Drive 17 in Drive X-Ray
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, Minnesota Vikings would win 88% of the time (Miami Dolphins 12%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Minnesota Vikings. Here is where that came from.
| Dolphins | Points added | Vikings |
|---|---|---|
| -8.8 | Passingdropbacks | -11.0 |
| -3.6 | Rushingdesigned runs | -3.8 |
| +10.1 | Explosive plays7 plays · 9 plays | +12.3 |
| -4.7 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| -3.2 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +4.8 |
| -2.1 | Penalties9 for 55 yds · 11 for 85 yds | -3.3 |
| -0.5 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 2 · 0 of 3 | -0.7 |
| -12.8 | All plays | -1.7 |
The biggest single gap: special teams, worth about 8.0 points to Minnesota Vikings. The final margin was 5.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Minnesota Vikings closed as the market favourite at 81% and won.
The line moved toward Miami Dolphins before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Dolphins +10 (-112)
Dolphins +10 (-110)
Vikings -625 83%
Vikings -555 81%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
Malik Washington has 152 receiving yards for the Dolphins (30th of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 27.1%. De'Von Achane has 127 rushing yards on 34 carries (29th of 44 qualified running backs). Justin Jefferson has 179 receiving yards for the Vikings (23rd of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 25.4%. Aaron Jones has 203 rushing yards on 52 carries (12th of 44 qualified running backs).
- Carries34
- Rush yards12729th
- Yards per carry3.730th
- EPA per rush−0.17131st
- Rush success rate35.3%31st
- Targets / catches23 / 12
- Receiving yards15230th
- Target share27.1%11th
- Yards per target6.659th
- EPA per target−0.21875th
- Targets / catches12 / 9
- Receiving yards9019th
- Target share14.1%20th
- Yards per target7.514th
- EPA per target+0.22020th
- Carries52
- Rush yards20312th
- Yards per carry3.926th
- EPA per rush−0.09227th
- Rush success rate32.7%36th
- Targets / catches17 / 13
- Receiving yards17923rd
- Target share25.4%17th
- Yards per target10.518th
- EPA per target+0.8638th
- Targets / catches13 / 9
- Receiving yards7623rd
- Target share19.4%11th
- Yards per target5.829th
- EPA per target+0.40314th
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Dolphins | Vikings |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateDolphins offense vs Vikings defense | 30.2%31st | 34.2%1st |
| Early-down success rateVikings offense vs Dolphins defense | 48.5%27th | 26.1%32nd |
| Early-down EPA per playDolphins offense vs Vikings defense | −0.15231st | −0.0714th |
| Early-down EPA per playVikings offense vs Dolphins defense | +0.06024th | −0.17832nd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateDolphins offense vs Vikings defense | 41.5%14th | 22.7%1st |
| 3rd-down conversion rateVikings offense vs Dolphins defense | 50.0%28th | 30.2%31st |
| 3rd-down EPA per playDolphins offense vs Vikings defense | +0.2418th | −0.3795th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playVikings offense vs Dolphins defense | +0.75731st | −0.06919th |
| Red-zone TD rateDolphins offense vs Vikings defense | 33.3%29th | 11.1%1st |
| Red-zone TD rateVikings offense vs Dolphins defense | 78.6%30th | 66.7%9th |
| Red-zone success rateDolphins offense vs Vikings defense | 43.5%12th | 17.2%1st |
| Red-zone success rateVikings offense vs Dolphins defense | 43.6%16th | 42.9%14th |
On early downs the Dolphins succeed on 30.2% of plays (31st) against a Vikings defense that allows 34.2% (1st); on 3rd down they convert 41.5% (14th) against a defense allowing 22.7% (1st). On early downs the Vikings succeed on 26.1% of plays (32nd) against a Dolphins defense that allows 48.5% (27th); on 3rd down they convert 30.2% (31st) against a defense allowing 50.0% (28th). The Dolphins score touchdowns on 33.3% of red-zone trips (29th). The Vikings score touchdowns on 66.7% of red-zone trips (9th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Dolphins | Vikings |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Jeff Hafley | Kevin O'Connell |
| Offensive coordinator | Bobby Slowik | Wes Phillips |
| Defensive coordinator | Sean Duggan | Brian Flores |
| Offense tendencies | Dolphins | Vikings |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.1% | −8.7%29th-highest | −6.0%25th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.4% | 61.9%15th-highest | 53.9%28th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 54.9% | 56.3%14th-highest | 42.0%31st-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 58.8% | 61.3%15th-highest | 54.3%20th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.1% | 1.7%28th-highest | 5.5%13th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 33.0 | 34.010th-slowest | 34.09th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.3% | 12.2%27th | 13.9%21st |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.6% | 10.2%7th | 7.6%23rd |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.2% | 6.2%26th | 5.3%30th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.0% | 8.4%28th | 10.1%31st |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.90% | 2.31%22nd | 1.21%14th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 60.6 | 57.724th-most | 54.728th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 62.7% | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
| Defense | Dolphins | Vikings |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.0% | 0.0%32nd | 10.5%1st |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.3% | 22.2%30th | 13.4%10th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.6% | 11.1%26th | 10.1%22nd |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.2% | 8.9%15th | 7.6%10th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.90% | 1.88%13th | 3.00%7th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.8% | 11.1%28th | 26.3%1st |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.8% | 14.0%10th | 14.8%14th |
The Dolphins run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−8.7% pass rate over expected, 29th-highest), while the Vikings sit at −6.0% (25th-highest). In neutral situations the Dolphins take 34.0 seconds between snaps and the Vikings 34.0, so the Dolphins play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Dolphins have gone for it 2 of 3 times and the Vikings 2 of 2.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 2 times since 2015: the Dolphins won 0 and the Vikings 2. In the most recent meeting (October 16, 2022), the Vikings won 24-16; the Dolphins averaged −0.128 EPA per play; the Vikings averaged −0.109 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2022 | Vikings 24, Dolphins 16 Vikings won | Vikings -3 Vikings covered | 45 under | Dolphins −0.128 · Vikings −0.109 |
| Dec 16, 2018 | Dolphins 17, Vikings 41 Vikings won | Vikings -7.5 Vikings covered | 45 over | Dolphins −0.407 · Vikings +0.109 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
Miami Dolphins
- Miami Dolphins team stats
- New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (Nov 1)
- Miami Dolphins 28, New York Jets 25 (Oct 25)
- Cincinnati Bengals 31, Miami Dolphins 24 (Oct 11)
- Kansas City Chiefs 24, Miami Dolphins 10 (Sep 27)
Minnesota Vikings
- Minnesota Vikings team stats
- Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (Nov 1)
- Indianapolis Colts 10, Minnesota Vikings 16 (Oct 25)
- Minnesota Vikings 23, New Orleans Saints 13 (Oct 11)
- Minnesota Vikings 23, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16 (Sep 27)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on October 4, 2026
- Indianapolis Colts 30, Washington Commanders 13 (Oct 4)
- Tennessee Titans 18, Baltimore Ravens 24 (Oct 4)
- New England Patriots 29, Buffalo Bills 26 (Oct 4)
- New York Jets 12, Chicago Bears 23 (Oct 4)
- Jacksonville Jaguars 22, Cincinnati Bengals 17 (Oct 4)
- Dallas Cowboys 34, Houston Texans 30 (Oct 4)
- Arizona Cardinals 24, New York Giants 36 (Oct 4)
- Los Angeles Rams 24, Philadelphia Eagles 20 (Oct 4)
- Green Bay Packers 17, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 (Oct 4)
- Kansas City Chiefs 30, Las Vegas Raiders 27 (Oct 4)
- Denver Broncos 14, San Francisco 49ers 24 (Oct 4)
- Los Angeles Chargers 23, Seattle Seahawks 30 (Oct 4)
- Detroit Lions 26, Carolina Panthers 32 (Oct 4)
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