Detroit Lions vs Carolina Panthers Final — October 4, 2026
DETStarting quarterbacksexpected startersCAR
DETOffense2026 regular season to dateCARDETDefenseCARDETRecent formCARInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
DETRest & travelCARDETKey injuriesCARAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 34 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Lions (2-1) visited the Panthers (1-2) at Bank of America Stadium on Sunday, October 4 at 8:20 PM ET in Week 4.
The Lions have the 7th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 29th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Panthers have the 10th-ranked offense and the 14th-ranked defense. When the Lions have the ball, a 7th-ranked offense (+0.133 EPA per play) meets a 14th-ranked defense (−0.022 allowed); when the Panthers have it, a 10th-ranked offense (+0.053) meets a 29th-ranked defense (+0.149 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Lions offense is at 50.8% (4th) and the Panthers offense at 42.1% (19th). Through the air, the Lions average +0.247 EPA per dropback (8th) against a Panthers pass defense ranked 13th; the Panthers average +0.149 (11th) against a Lions pass defense ranked 26th. The Lions score 31.0 points per game (3rd) and allow 31.7 (32nd); the Panthers score 29.7 (5th) and allow 27.7 (26th).
Jared Goff has a 51.2% success rate (8th of 34 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Bryce Young's 43.8% (23rd). Per dropback, Goff is at +0.247 EPA to Young's +0.142, with 8 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions to Young's 7 and 2.
The Lions are 2-1 and 0-2-1 against the spread; their last game was a 31-24 win over the Jets. The Panthers are 1-2 and 1-2 against the spread; their last game was a 21-18 loss to the Browns.
The Lions closed as 4.5-point road favorites, with the Panthers getting the points at home. The spread opened at Lions -3. The total closed at 52.5, up from 49 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Lions -225, Panthers +180) prices the Lions at 66% and the Panthers at 34%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Detroit Lions 26, Carolina Panthers 32
Carolina Panthers won by 6.
- Against the closing spread (Carolina Panthers +4.5): Carolina Panthers covered.
- Combined score 58 vs the closing total of 52.5: Over.
- Carolina Panthers closed at +180 on the moneyline (a 34% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 8 points toward Detroit Lions.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Detroit Lions 66%, Carolina Panthers 34%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q2 11:14 — Carolina Panthers ball, 3rd & 9 at CAR 26(Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 4-T.McMillan pushed ob at DET 48 for 26 yards (2-E.Rakestraw).Carolina Panthers 41% → 50% (+8 pts) · Drive 6 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 8:52 — Carolina Panthers ball, 4th & 4 at DET 42(Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 13-J.Metchie to DET 32 for 10 yards (36-C.Clark).Carolina Panthers 45% → 53% (+8 pts) · Drive 6 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 0:21 — Detroit Lions ball, 1st & 10 at DET 28(Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 1-J.Williams to CAR 23 for 49 yards (22-L.Ransom; 29-A.Evans).Detroit Lions 53% → 62% (+9 pts) · Drive 9 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 7:53 — Detroit Lions ball, 1st & 25 at DET 31(Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 18-I.TeSlaa to CAR 12 for 57 yards (29-A.Evans).Detroit Lions 38% → 55% (+17 pts) · Drive 11 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 4:04 — Carolina Panthers ball, 2nd & 9 at DET 45(Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 13-J.Metchie to DET 27 for 18 yards (46-J.Campbell; 5-C.Izien).Carolina Panthers 59% → 67% (+8 pts) · Drive 12 in Drive X-Ray
Carolina Panthers won after falling as low as 29% (Q1 7:41).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, Carolina Panthers would win 84% of the time (Detroit Lions 16%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Carolina Panthers. Here is where that came from.
| Lions | Points added | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| -3.4 | Passingdropbacks | +5.3 |
| -2.8 | Rushingdesigned runs | -8.5 |
| +17.3 | Explosive plays9 plays · 12 plays | +21.0 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| +5.9 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +0.6 |
| -4.1 | Penalties9 for 67 yds · 8 for 60 yds | -0.3 |
| +0.9 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 4 · 3 of 4 | +2.4 |
| +13.8 | All plays | +20.5 |
The biggest single gap: passing, worth about 8.8 points to Carolina Panthers. The final margin was 6.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Detroit Lions closed as the market favourite at 66% and lost.
The line moved toward Detroit Lions before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Lions -3 (-112)
Lions -4.5 (-110)
Panthers +130 42%
Panthers +180 34%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
Amon-Ra St. Brown has 228 receiving yards for the Lions (12th of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 32.4%. Jahmyr Gibbs has 307 rushing yards on 65 carries (4th of 44 qualified running backs). Tetairoa McMillan has 193 receiving yards for the Panthers (17th of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 21.3%. Chuba Hubbard has 184 rushing yards on 41 carries (15th of 44 qualified running backs).
- Carries65
- Rush yards3074th
- Yards per carry4.711th
- EPA per rush−0.01716th
- Rush success rate50.8%6th
- Targets / catches35 / 23
- Receiving yards22812th
- Target share32.4%4th
- Yards per target6.560th
- EPA per target+0.28943rd
- Targets / catches19 / 14
- Receiving yards1447th
- Target share17.6%13th
- Yards per target7.613th
- EPA per target+0.5148th
- Carries41
- Rush yards18415th
- Yards per carry4.517th
- EPA per rush−0.02118th
- Rush success rate46.3%10th
- Targets / catches23 / 12
- Receiving yards19317th
- Target share21.3%35th
- Yards per target8.441st
- EPA per target−0.03365th
- Targets / catches13 / 10
- Receiving yards11215th
- Target share12.0%27th
- Yards per target8.69th
- EPA per target+0.36915th
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Lions | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateLions offense vs Panthers defense | 52.2%3rd | 41.3%11th |
| Early-down success ratePanthers offense vs Lions defense | 45.6%22nd | 44.0%13th |
| Early-down EPA per playLions offense vs Panthers defense | +0.1565th | −0.02014th |
| Early-down EPA per playPanthers offense vs Lions defense | +0.09828th | +0.1613rd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateLions offense vs Panthers defense | 41.2%15th | 45.2%24th |
| 3rd-down conversion ratePanthers offense vs Lions defense | 57.5%31st | 36.8%22nd |
| 3rd-down EPA per playLions offense vs Panthers defense | −0.14221st | −0.05415th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playPanthers offense vs Lions defense | +0.13721st | −0.06918th |
| Red-zone TD rateLions offense vs Panthers defense | 84.6%3rd | 85.7%32nd |
| Red-zone TD ratePanthers offense vs Lions defense | 84.6%31st | 66.7%9th |
| Red-zone success rateLions offense vs Panthers defense | 56.8%3rd | 48.0%21st |
| Red-zone success ratePanthers offense vs Lions defense | 48.5%23rd | 44.7%10th |
On early downs the Lions succeed on 52.2% of plays (3rd) against a Panthers defense that allows 41.3% (11th); on 3rd down they convert 41.2% (15th) against a defense allowing 45.2% (24th). On early downs the Panthers succeed on 44.0% of plays (13th) against a Lions defense that allows 45.6% (22nd); on 3rd down they convert 36.8% (22nd) against a defense allowing 57.5% (31st). The Lions score touchdowns on 84.6% of red-zone trips (3rd). The Panthers score touchdowns on 66.7% of red-zone trips (9th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Lions | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Dan Campbell | Dave Canales |
| Offensive coordinator | Drew Petzing | Brad Idzik |
| Defensive coordinator | Kelvin Sheppard | Ejiro Evero |
| Offense tendencies | Lions | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.1% | 0.7%9th-highest | 2.4%7th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.4% | 61.4%17th-highest | 67.7%4th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 54.9% | 56.6%12th-highest | 62.7%5th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 58.8% | 45.7%29th-highest | 67.0%11th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.1% | 3.0%26th-highest | 5.2%15th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 33.0 | 33.415th-slowest | 28.832nd-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.3% | 13.2%23rd | 18.4%8th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.6% | 7.9%20th | 11.2%5th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.2% | 14.9%2nd | 11.3%9th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.0% | 5.8%16th | 5.3%13th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.90% | 0.51%2nd | 1.54%17th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 60.6 | 65.74th-most | 64.77th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 62.7% | 2 of 3 | 2 of 4 |
| Defense | Lions | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.0% | 8.2%5th | 6.0%19th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.3% | 18.9%25th | 10.2%5th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.6% | 12.1%28th | 6.5%10th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.2% | 11.9%27th | 10.8%22nd |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.90% | 1.86%14th | 3.02%6th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.8% | 16.0%15th | 13.0%24th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.8% | 19.0%28th | 14.4%13th |
The Lions pass more often than down, distance and score would suggest (0.7% pass rate over expected, 9th-highest), while the Panthers sit at 2.4% (7th-highest). In neutral situations the Lions take 33.4 seconds between snaps and the Panthers 28.8, so the Panthers play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Lions have gone for it 2 of 3 times and the Panthers 2 of 4.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 5 times since 2015: the Lions won 2 and the Panthers 3. In the most recent meeting (October 8, 2023), the Lions won 42-24; the Panthers averaged −0.080 EPA per play; the Lions averaged +0.253 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2023 | Panthers 24, Lions 42 Lions won | Lions -9.5 Lions covered | 43.5 over | Panthers −0.080 · Lions +0.253 |
| Dec 24, 2022 | Lions 23, Panthers 37 Panthers won | Lions -2.5 Panthers covered | 43.5 over | Panthers +0.407 · Lions +0.066 |
| Nov 22, 2020 | Lions 0, Panthers 20 Panthers won | Lions -3 Panthers covered | 47 under | Panthers −0.052 · Lions −0.379 |
| Nov 18, 2018 | Panthers 19, Lions 20 Lions won | Panthers -4 Lions covered | 48 under | Panthers +0.175 · Lions +0.021 |
| Oct 8, 2017 | Panthers 27, Lions 24 Panthers won | Lions -2 Panthers covered | 42 over | Panthers +0.115 · Lions −0.184 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
Detroit Lions
- Detroit Lions team stats
- Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (Nov 1)
- Green Bay Packers 17, Detroit Lions 20 (Oct 25)
- Detroit Lions 45, Arizona Cardinals 21 (Oct 11)
- Detroit Lions 31, Buffalo Bills 41 (Sep 17)
Carolina Panthers
- Carolina Panthers team stats
- Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers (Oct 29)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 43, Carolina Panthers 13 (Oct 25)
- Carolina Panthers 25, Philadelphia Eagles 14 (Oct 18)
- Chicago Bears 59, Carolina Panthers 37 (Sep 13)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on October 4, 2026
- Indianapolis Colts 30, Washington Commanders 13 (Oct 4)
- Tennessee Titans 18, Baltimore Ravens 24 (Oct 4)
- New England Patriots 29, Buffalo Bills 26 (Oct 4)
- New York Jets 12, Chicago Bears 23 (Oct 4)
- Jacksonville Jaguars 22, Cincinnati Bengals 17 (Oct 4)
- Dallas Cowboys 34, Houston Texans 30 (Oct 4)
- Arizona Cardinals 24, New York Giants 36 (Oct 4)
- Los Angeles Rams 24, Philadelphia Eagles 20 (Oct 4)
- Green Bay Packers 17, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 (Oct 4)
- Miami Dolphins 10, Minnesota Vikings 15 (Oct 4)
- Kansas City Chiefs 30, Las Vegas Raiders 27 (Oct 4)
- Denver Broncos 14, San Francisco 49ers 24 (Oct 4)
- Los Angeles Chargers 23, Seattle Seahawks 30 (Oct 4)
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