New York Jets vs Chicago Bears Final — October 4, 2026
NYJStarting quarterbacksexpected startersCHI
NYJOffense2026 regular season to dateCHINYJDefenseCHINYJRecent formCHIInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
NYJRest & travelCHINYJKey injuriesCHIAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 34 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Jets (1-2) visited the Bears (2-1) at Soldier Field on Sunday, October 4 at 1:00 PM ET in Week 4.
The Jets have the 12th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 13th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Bears have the 8th-ranked offense and the 10th-ranked defense. When the Jets have the ball, a 12th-ranked offense (+0.044 EPA per play) meets a 10th-ranked defense (−0.044 allowed); when the Bears have it, a 8th-ranked offense (+0.127) meets a 13th-ranked defense (−0.032 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Jets offense is at 44.3% (14th) and the Bears offense at 45.1% (13th). Through the air, the Jets average +0.200 EPA per dropback (10th) against a Bears pass defense ranked 8th; the Bears average +0.227 (9th) against a Jets pass defense ranked 16th. The Jets score 21.3 points per game (17th) and allow 20.3 (12th); the Bears score 29.7 (5th) and allow 17.7 (7th).
Geno Smith has a 49.2% success rate (12th of 34 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Caleb Williams' 48.0% (13th). Per dropback, Smith is at +0.202 EPA to Williams' +0.315, with 4 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions to Williams' 2 and 1. Caleb Williams is listed as out on the injury report.
The Jets are 1-2 and 2-0-1 against the spread; their last game was a 31-24 loss to the Lions. The Bears are 2-1 and 2-1 against the spread; their last game was a 27-7 win over the Eagles.
The Bears closed as 3.5-point favorites at home against the Jets. The spread closed where it opened. The total closed at 43.5, up from 42.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Jets +160, Bears -191) prices the Jets at 37% and the Bears at 63%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
New York Jets 12, Chicago Bears 23
Chicago Bears won by 11.
- Against the closing spread (Chicago Bears -3.5): Chicago Bears covered.
- Combined score 35 vs the closing total of 43.5: Under.
- Chicago Bears closed at -191 on the moneyline (a 63% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
The market barely moved from open to close.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (New York Jets 37%, Chicago Bears 63%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 9:14 — Chicago Bears ball, 4th & 1 at NYJ 14-D.Swift left guard to NYJ 1 for no gain (21-B.Stephens).New York Jets 31% → 40% (+9 pts) · Drive 1 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 2:56 — Chicago Bears ball, 4th & 1 at NYJ 214-D.Swift right end to NYJ 8 for 13 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick).Chicago Bears 66% → 72% (+6 pts) · Drive 3 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 0:27 — Chicago Bears ball, 4th & 1 at NYJ 125-K.Monangai right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.Chicago Bears 68% → 75% (+6 pts) · Drive 3 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 11:52 — Chicago Bears ball, 1st & 10 at CHI 4317-T.Bagent pass deep middle intended for 84-C.Loveland INTERCEPTED by 29-M.Fitzpatrick at NYJ 39. 29-M.Fitzpatrick ran ob at CHI 34 for 27 yards (87-S.Roush).New York Jets 18% → 30% (+12 pts) · Drive 5 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 8:52 — Chicago Bears ball, 2nd & 6 at CHI 28(Shotgun) 4-D.Swift left guard to CHI 28 for no gain (44-J.Sherwood). FUMBLES (44-J.Sherwood), RECOVERED by NYJ-21-B.Stephens at CHI 28. 21-B.Stephens ran ob at CHI 28 for no gain.New York Jets 11% → 18% (+8 pts) · Drive 11 in Drive X-Ray
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, Chicago Bears would win 92% of the time (New York Jets 8%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Chicago Bears. Here is where that came from.
| Jets | Points added | Bears |
|---|---|---|
| -9.3 | Passingdropbacks | +2.2 |
| +0.1 | Rushingdesigned runs | -0.7 |
| +6.9 | Explosive plays3 plays · 12 plays | +16.9 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 2 giveaways | -11.0 |
| +1.4 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -1.4 |
| -1.3 | Penalties12 for 76 yds · 4 for 29 yds | +5.6 |
| -2.0 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 0 of 2 · 2 of 7 | -2.3 |
| -4.3 | All plays | +9.2 |
The biggest single gap: passing, worth about 11.5 points to Chicago Bears. The final margin was 11.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Chicago Bears closed as the market favourite at 63% and won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Jets +3.5 (-107)
Jets +3.5 (-110)
Bears -190 63%
Bears -191 63%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
Garrett Wilson has 243 receiving yards for the Jets (9th of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 28.4%. Breece Hall has 163 rushing yards on 51 carries (23rd of 44 qualified running backs). Luther Burden III has 156 receiving yards for the Bears (28th of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 25.6%. D'Andre Swift has 253 rushing yards on 54 carries (7th of 44 qualified running backs).
- Carries51
- Rush yards16323rd
- Yards per carry3.237th
- EPA per rush−0.17332nd
- Rush success rate33.3%34th
- Targets / catches27 / 21
- Receiving yards2439th
- Target share28.4%7th
- Yards per target9.036th
- EPA per target+0.57121st
- Targets / catches14 / 12
- Receiving yards1438th
- Target share14.7%18th
- Yards per target10.26th
- EPA per target+0.46310th
- Carries54
- Rush yards2537th
- Yards per carry4.712th
- EPA per rush−0.00914th
- Rush success rate42.6%17th
- Targets / catches23 / 15
- Receiving yards15628th
- Target share25.6%14th
- Yards per target6.858th
- EPA per target−0.13670th
- Targets / catches9 / 5
- Receiving yards3436th
- Target share10.0%31st
- Yards per target3.836th
- EPA per target−0.09030th
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Jets | Bears |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateJets offense vs Bears defense | 43.2%16th | 43.2%15th |
| Early-down success rateBears offense vs Jets defense | 49.6%29th | 43.9%14th |
| Early-down EPA per playJets offense vs Bears defense | −0.01618th | +0.09727th |
| Early-down EPA per playBears offense vs Jets defense | +0.03620th | +0.0998th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateJets offense vs Bears defense | 38.1%19th | 29.0%3rd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateBears offense vs Jets defense | 32.3%5th | 47.6%6th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playJets offense vs Bears defense | +0.10811th | −0.4424th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playBears offense vs Jets defense | −0.2778th | +0.2457th |
| Red-zone TD rateJets offense vs Bears defense | 66.7%9th | 71.4%22nd |
| Red-zone TD rateBears offense vs Jets defense | 77.8%27th | 54.5%20th |
| Red-zone success rateJets offense vs Bears defense | 40.0%19th | 60.0%31st |
| Red-zone success rateBears offense vs Jets defense | 51.9%29th | 40.8%18th |
On early downs the Jets succeed on 43.2% of plays (16th) against a Bears defense that allows 43.2% (15th); on 3rd down they convert 38.1% (19th) against a defense allowing 29.0% (3rd). On early downs the Bears succeed on 43.9% of plays (14th) against a Jets defense that allows 49.6% (29th); on 3rd down they convert 47.6% (6th) against a defense allowing 32.3% (5th). The Jets score touchdowns on 66.7% of red-zone trips (9th). The Bears score touchdowns on 54.5% of red-zone trips (20th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Jets | Bears |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Aaron Glenn | Ben Johnson |
| Offensive coordinator | Frank Reich | Press Taylor |
| Defensive coordinator | Brian Duker | Dennis Allen |
| Offense tendencies | Jets | Bears |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.1% | −1.0%14th-highest | −2.0%17th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.4% | 61.9%14th-highest | 55.3%27th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 54.9% | 56.2%15th-highest | 49.7%27th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 58.8% | 60.9%16th-highest | 45.6%30th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.1% | 5.2%14th-highest | 3.9%23rd-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 33.0 | 34.75th-slowest | 32.618th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.3% | 16.5%11th | 15.7%15th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.6% | 10.1%9th | 9.3%15th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.2% | 8.3%19th | 8.8%17th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.0% | 7.5%22nd | 5.3%12th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.90% | 0.52%4th | 1.46%16th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 60.6 | 64.08th-most | 68.72nd-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 62.7% | 3 of 4 | 4 of 4 |
| Defense | Jets | Bears |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.0% | 7.5%8th | 7.1%10th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.3% | 8.1%3rd | 20.9%28th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.6% | 4.0%3rd | 11.0%25th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.2% | 11.1%23rd | 11.5%25th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.90% | 0.62%30th | 3.12%4th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.8% | 14.0%20th | 13.3%22nd |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.8% | 12.7%4th | 14.0%11th |
The Jets run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−1.0% pass rate over expected, 14th-highest), while the Bears sit at −2.0% (17th-highest). In neutral situations the Jets take 34.7 seconds between snaps and the Bears 32.6, so the Bears play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Jets have gone for it 3 of 4 times and the Bears 4 of 4.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 2 times since 2015: the Jets won 1 and the Bears 1. In the most recent meeting (November 27, 2022), the Jets won 31-10; the Bears averaged −0.063 EPA per play; the Jets averaged +0.246 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 27, 2022 | Bears 10, Jets 31 Jets won | Jets -8.5 Jets covered | 36.5 over | Bears −0.063 · Jets +0.246 |
| Oct 28, 2018 | Jets 10, Bears 24 Bears won | Bears -8.5 Bears covered | 42.5 under | Bears +0.168 · Jets −0.077 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
New York Jets
- New York Jets team stats
- Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets (Nov 1)
- Miami Dolphins 28, New York Jets 25 (Oct 25)
- New York Jets 19, New England Patriots 26 (Oct 18)
- Cleveland Browns 12, New York Jets 17 (Oct 11)
Chicago Bears
- Chicago Bears team stats
- Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks (Nov 2)
- New England Patriots 24, Chicago Bears 30 (Oct 22)
- Chicago Bears 31, Atlanta Falcons 23 (Oct 18)
- Chicago Bears 7, Green Bay Packers 31 (Oct 11)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on October 4, 2026
- Indianapolis Colts 30, Washington Commanders 13 (Oct 4)
- Tennessee Titans 18, Baltimore Ravens 24 (Oct 4)
- New England Patriots 29, Buffalo Bills 26 (Oct 4)
- Jacksonville Jaguars 22, Cincinnati Bengals 17 (Oct 4)
- Dallas Cowboys 34, Houston Texans 30 (Oct 4)
- Arizona Cardinals 24, New York Giants 36 (Oct 4)
- Los Angeles Rams 24, Philadelphia Eagles 20 (Oct 4)
- Green Bay Packers 17, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 (Oct 4)
- Miami Dolphins 10, Minnesota Vikings 15 (Oct 4)
- Kansas City Chiefs 30, Las Vegas Raiders 27 (Oct 4)
- Denver Broncos 14, San Francisco 49ers 24 (Oct 4)
- Los Angeles Chargers 23, Seattle Seahawks 30 (Oct 4)
- Detroit Lions 26, Carolina Panthers 32 (Oct 4)
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