Tennessee Titans vs Baltimore Ravens Final — October 4, 2026
TENStarting quarterbacksexpected startersBAL
TENOffense2026 regular season to dateBALTENDefenseBALTENRecent formBALInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
TENRest & travelBALTENKey injuriesBALAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 34 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Titans (0-3) visited the Ravens (2-1) at M&T Bank Stadium on Sunday, October 4 at 1:00 PM ET in Week 4.
The Titans have the 23rd-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 20th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Ravens have the 3rd-ranked offense and the 19th-ranked defense. When the Titans have the ball, a 23rd-ranked offense (−0.066 EPA per play) meets a 19th-ranked defense (+0.022 allowed); when the Ravens have it, a 3rd-ranked offense (+0.193) meets a 20th-ranked defense (+0.033 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Titans offense is at 42.7% (18th) and the Ravens offense at 54.3% (2nd). Through the air, the Titans average −0.101 EPA per dropback (26th) against a Ravens pass defense ranked 15th; the Ravens average +0.337 (2nd) against a Titans pass defense ranked 22nd. The Titans score 12.3 points per game (30th) and allow 19.7 (10th); the Ravens score 30.7 (4th) and allow 26.0 (21st).
Lamar Jackson has a 58.1% success rate (2nd of 34 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Cam Ward's 46.1% (18th). Per dropback, Jackson is at +0.337 EPA to Ward's −0.101, with 4 touchdown passes and 1 interception to Ward's 2 and 1.
The Titans are 0-3 and 1-2 against the spread; their last game was a 12-7 loss to the Giants. The Ravens are 2-1 and 1-2 against the spread; their last game was a 34-31 win over the Cowboys.
The Ravens closed as 11.5-point favorites at home against the Titans. The spread closed where it opened. The total closed at 42.5, down from 43.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Titans +550, Ravens -785) prices the Titans at 15% and the Ravens at 85%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Tennessee Titans 18, Baltimore Ravens 24
Baltimore Ravens won by 6.
- Against the closing spread (Baltimore Ravens -11.5): Tennessee Titans covered.
- Combined score 42 vs the closing total of 42.5: Under.
- Baltimore Ravens closed at -785 on the moneyline (a 85% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Baltimore Ravens.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Tennessee Titans 15%, Baltimore Ravens 85%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 14:18 — Tennessee Titans ball, 1st & 10 at BAL 431-C.Ward pass short middle intended for 20-T.Pollard INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Simpson [15-M.Green] at BAL 39. 32-T.Simpson pushed ob at TEN 37 for 24 yards (51-A.Schlottmann).Baltimore Ravens 83% → 90% (+7 pts) · Drive 1 in Drive X-Ray
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, Baltimore Ravens would win 94% of the time (Tennessee Titans 6%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Baltimore Ravens. Here is where that came from.
| Titans | Points added | Ravens |
|---|---|---|
| -7.5 | Passingdropbacks | -4.5 |
| -1.4 | Rushingdesigned runs | -7.4 |
| +10.3 | Explosive plays6 plays · 12 plays | +16.3 |
| -7.8 | Turnovers2 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| +3.7 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +1.9 |
| +6.3 | Penalties5 for 32 yds · 13 for 131 yds | -3.7 |
| -1.6 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 4 · 3 of 3 | +5.4 |
| +1.9 | All plays | +8.0 |
The biggest single gap: penalties, worth about 10.0 points to Tennessee Titans. The final margin was 6.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Baltimore Ravens closed as the market favourite at 85% and won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Titans +11.5 (-110)
Titans +11.5 (-110)
Ravens -760 85%
Ravens -785 85%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
Carnell Tate has 123 receiving yards for the Titans (43rd of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 25.0%. Tony Pollard has 173 rushing yards on 38 carries (20th of 44 qualified running backs). Rashod Bateman has 125 receiving yards for the Ravens (42nd of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 17.8%. Derrick Henry has 301 rushing yards on 66 carries (5th of 44 qualified running backs).
- Carries38
- Rush yards17320th
- Yards per carry4.614th
- EPA per rush−0.05522nd
- Rush success rate39.5%23rd
- Targets / catches20 / 13
- Receiving yards12343rd
- Target share25.0%18th
- Yards per target6.264th
- EPA per target−0.07966th
- Targets / catches11 / 8
- Receiving yards5534th
- Target share13.8%22nd
- Yards per target5.034th
- EPA per target−0.25432nd
- Carries66
- Rush yards3015th
- Yards per carry4.613th
- EPA per rush−0.01817th
- Rush success rate51.5%3rd
- Targets / catches13 / 9
- Receiving yards12542nd
- Target share17.8%51st
- Yards per target9.628th
- EPA per target+0.52427th
- Targets / catches18 / 13
- Receiving yards12211th
- Target share24.7%4th
- Yards per target6.822nd
- EPA per target+0.30118th
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Titans | Ravens |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateTitans offense vs Ravens defense | 40.2%25th | 43.8%17th |
| Early-down success rateRavens offense vs Titans defense | 41.0%10th | 58.3%1st |
| Early-down EPA per playTitans offense vs Ravens defense | −0.11127th | −0.0597th |
| Early-down EPA per playRavens offense vs Titans defense | +0.00919th | +0.2861st |
| 3rd-down conversion rateTitans offense vs Ravens defense | 39.5%17th | 42.1%18th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateRavens offense vs Titans defense | 40.5%15th | 38.5%18th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playTitans offense vs Ravens defense | +0.09113th | +0.21924th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playRavens offense vs Titans defense | −0.04916th | +0.1199th |
| Red-zone TD rateTitans offense vs Ravens defense | 50.0%22nd | 63.6%17th |
| Red-zone TD rateRavens offense vs Titans defense | 55.6%11th | 66.7%9th |
| Red-zone success rateTitans offense vs Ravens defense | 44.4%11th | 48.5%23rd |
| Red-zone success rateRavens offense vs Titans defense | 48.0%21st | 50.0%8th |
On early downs the Titans succeed on 40.2% of plays (25th) against a Ravens defense that allows 43.8% (17th); on 3rd down they convert 39.5% (17th) against a defense allowing 42.1% (18th). On early downs the Ravens succeed on 58.3% of plays (1st) against a Titans defense that allows 41.0% (10th); on 3rd down they convert 38.5% (18th) against a defense allowing 40.5% (15th). The Titans score touchdowns on 50.0% of red-zone trips (22nd). The Ravens score touchdowns on 66.7% of red-zone trips (9th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Titans | Ravens |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Robert Saleh | Jesse Minter |
| Offensive coordinator | Brian Daboll | Declan Doyle |
| Defensive coordinator | Gus Bradley | Anthony Weaver |
| Offense tendencies | Titans | Ravens |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.1% | −10.2%31st-highest | −8.0%27th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.4% | 63.1%10th-highest | 50.9%31st-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 54.9% | 56.4%13th-highest | 45.8%29th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 58.8% | 67.5%9th-highest | 53.2%23rd-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.1% | 14.0%3rd-highest | 4.0%21st-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 33.0 | 30.330th-slowest | 36.12nd-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.3% | 8.5%31st | 22.9%2nd |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.6% | 5.3%29th | 12.0%3rd |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.2% | 12.1%7th | 11.8%8th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.0% | 5.1%11th | 5.7%15th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.90% | 0.64%6th | 1.16%12th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 60.6 | 52.332nd-most | 57.724th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 62.7% | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 |
| Defense | Titans | Ravens |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.0% | 6.4%16th | 5.0%23rd |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.3% | 15.9%19th | 11.6%8th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.6% | 10.2%23rd | 7.1%11th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.2% | 6.4%5th | 13.2%31st |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.90% | 1.06%24th | 1.59%20th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.8% | 14.9%17th | 16.9%12th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.8% | 11.1%3rd | 10.2%2nd |
The Titans run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−10.2% pass rate over expected, 31st-highest), while the Ravens sit at −8.0% (27th-highest). In neutral situations the Titans take 30.3 seconds between snaps and the Ravens 36.1, so the Titans play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Titans have gone for it 1 of 1 times and the Ravens 2 of 3.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 6 times since 2015: the Titans won 3 and the Ravens 3. In the most recent meeting (October 15, 2023), the Ravens won 24-16; the Ravens averaged +0.023 EPA per play; the Titans averaged −0.197 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2023 | Ravens 24, Titans 16 Ravens won | Ravens -5.5 Ravens covered | 42.5 under | Ravens +0.023 · Titans −0.197 |
| Jan 10, 2021 playoffs | Ravens 20, Titans 13 Ravens won | Ravens -3.5 Ravens covered | 53 under | Ravens +0.184 · Titans −0.104 |
| Nov 22, 2020 | Titans 30, Ravens 24 Titans won | Ravens -6 Titans covered | 50.5 over | Ravens +0.114 · Titans +0.179 |
| Jan 11, 2020 playoffs | Titans 28, Ravens 12 Titans won | Ravens -10 Titans covered | 47.5 under | Ravens −0.148 · Titans +0.223 |
| Oct 14, 2018 | Ravens 21, Titans 0 Ravens won | Ravens -2.5 Ravens covered | 43.5 under | Ravens +0.174 · Titans −0.364 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
Tennessee Titans
- Tennessee Titans team stats
- Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals (Nov 1)
- Cleveland Browns 27, Tennessee Titans 24 (Oct 25)
- Tennessee Titans 26, Indianapolis Colts 20 (Oct 18)
- Houston Texans 26, Tennessee Titans 3 (Oct 11)
Baltimore Ravens
- Baltimore Ravens team stats
- Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (Nov 1)
- Cincinnati Bengals 35, Baltimore Ravens 13 (Oct 25)
- Baltimore Ravens 10, Cleveland Browns 13 (Oct 18)
- Baltimore Ravens 30, Atlanta Falcons 23 (Oct 11)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on October 4, 2026
- Indianapolis Colts 30, Washington Commanders 13 (Oct 4)
- New England Patriots 29, Buffalo Bills 26 (Oct 4)
- New York Jets 12, Chicago Bears 23 (Oct 4)
- Jacksonville Jaguars 22, Cincinnati Bengals 17 (Oct 4)
- Dallas Cowboys 34, Houston Texans 30 (Oct 4)
- Arizona Cardinals 24, New York Giants 36 (Oct 4)
- Los Angeles Rams 24, Philadelphia Eagles 20 (Oct 4)
- Green Bay Packers 17, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 (Oct 4)
- Miami Dolphins 10, Minnesota Vikings 15 (Oct 4)
- Kansas City Chiefs 30, Las Vegas Raiders 27 (Oct 4)
- Denver Broncos 14, San Francisco 49ers 24 (Oct 4)
- Los Angeles Chargers 23, Seattle Seahawks 30 (Oct 4)
- Detroit Lions 26, Carolina Panthers 32 (Oct 4)
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