Maryland Terrapins vs Nebraska Cornhuskers Final — October 3, 2026
MDOffense2026 regular season to dateNEB
MDDefenseNEBMDLast 10 gamesNEBRest & travelrest and travel
MDRest & travelNEBAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Margin of each of the last 4 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Maryland (1-2) visited Nebraska (3-0) on Saturday, October 3 at 4:00 PM ET.
Maryland has the 58th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 116th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Nebraska has the 3rd-ranked offense and the 5th-ranked defense. When Maryland has the ball, a 58th-ranked offense (+0.043 EPA per play) meets a 5th-ranked defense (−0.271 allowed); when Nebraska has it, a 3rd-ranked offense (+0.443) meets a 116th-ranked defense (+0.212 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Maryland offense is at 46.2% (36th) and the Nebraska offense at 53.0% (5th). Maryland scores 22.3 points per game (81st) and allows 34.3 (114th); Nebraska scores 45.3 (4th) and allows 13.7 (12th).
Nebraska closed as a 15.5-point favorite at home against Maryland. The spread opened at Nebraska -14.5. The total closed 52.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Maryland +500, Nebraska -760) prices Maryland at 16% and Nebraska at 84%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Maryland Terrapins 23, Nebraska Cornhuskers 48
Nebraska Cornhuskers won by 25.
- Against the closing spread (Nebraska Cornhuskers -15.5): Nebraska Cornhuskers covered.
- Combined score 71 vs the closing total of 52.5: Over.
- Nebraska Cornhuskers closed at -760 on the moneyline (a 84% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 3 points toward Nebraska Cornhuskers.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Maryland Terrapins 16%, Nebraska Cornhuskers 84%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 3:32 — Nebraska Cornhuskers ball, 2nd & 8 at NEB 22No Huddle-Shotgun #10 A.Colandrea pass intercepted by #4 J.Glasker at NEB43 #4 J.Glasker return 24 yards to the NEB19, out of bounds at NEB19Maryland Terrapins 27% → 38% (+11 pts) · Drive 8 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 12:23 — Maryland Terrapins ball, 1st & 10 at MD 47No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass intercepted by #93 K.Pietrzak at NEB47 QB hurried by #28 C.Benning #93 K.Pietrzak return 10 yards to the UMD43 (#0 D.Willi…Nebraska Cornhuskers 75% → 84% (+9 pts) · Drive 11 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 9:12 — Maryland Terrapins ball, 1st & 10 at MD 41No Huddle-Shotgun #0 D.Williams rush right for 56 yards gain to the NEB03 (#7 A.Marshall), 1ST DOWN. #7 A.Marshall injured on the playMaryland Terrapins 25% → 35% (+10 pts) · Drive 13 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 2:41 — Maryland Terrapins ball, 3rd & 7 at NEB 25No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass intercepted by #26 D.McDougle III at NEB19 #26 D.McDougle III return 81 yards to the UMD00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:41 #91 K.Cu…Nebraska Cornhuskers 48% → 89% (+41 pts) · Drive 15 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 2:38 — Maryland Terrapins ball, 1st & 10 at MD 35No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass incomplete short left to #0 D.Williams thrown to UMD30Maryland Terrapins 12% → 21% (+10 pts) · Drive 16 in Drive X-Ray
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, Nebraska Cornhuskers would win >99% of the time (Maryland Terrapins <1%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Nebraska Cornhuskers. Here is where that came from.
| Maryland | Points added | Nebraska |
|---|---|---|
| -7.9 | Passingdropbacks | -5.6 |
| -5.7 | Rushingdesigned runs | +7.8 |
| +14.5 | Explosive plays5 plays · 3 plays | +13.5 |
| -18.6 | Turnovers2 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -4.1 |
| -2.2 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +0.9 |
| +4.3 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -3.4 |
| -4.8 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 3 · 5 of 5 | +6.8 |
| -20.3 | All plays | +15.9 |
The biggest single gap: turnovers, worth about 14.5 points to Nebraska Cornhuskers. The final margin was 25.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Nebraska Cornhuskers closed as the market favourite at 84% and won.
The line moved toward Nebraska Cornhuskers before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Maryland +14.5 (-112)
Maryland +15.5 (-112)
Nebraska -600 81%
Nebraska -760 84%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts153
- Completion %66.0%77th
- Passing yards1,03462nd
- Yards per attempt6.8162nd
- TD–INT6–4
- Rushing yards177176th
- Season line49 carries, 177 yds, 4 TD
- Receiving yards31237th
- Season line35 catches, 312 yds, 3 TD
- Tackles26143rd
- Attempts104
- Completion %65.4%86th
- Passing yards90490th
- Yards per attempt8.755th
- TD–INT10–1
- Rushing yards33341st
- Season line42 carries, 333 yds, 5 TD
- Receiving yards24097th
- Season line18 catches, 240 yds, 4 TD
- Tackles23221st
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 241 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 2, 5:47 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Maryland | Nebraska |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateMaryland offense vs Nebraska defense | 44.5%22nd | 31.0%5th |
| Early-down success rateNebraska offense vs Maryland defense | 38.0%49th | 44.9%16th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateMaryland offense vs Nebraska defense | 48.5%25th | 33.3%31st |
| 3rd-down conversion rateNebraska offense vs Maryland defense | 46.7%110th | 54.5%7th |
| Explosive play rateMaryland offense vs Nebraska defense | 6.3%86th | 5.0%25th |
| Explosive play rateNebraska offense vs Maryland defense | 7.1%82nd | 9.6%17th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 63.8%7th-highest | 44.6%104th-highest |
On 3rd down Maryland converts 48.5% (25th) against a Nebraska defense allowing 33.3% (31st).
On 3rd down Nebraska converts 54.5% (7th) against a Maryland defense allowing 46.7% (110th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Maryland | Nebraska |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Mike Locksley | Matt Rhule |
| Tenureat this school | 8th season | 4th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 39–51 | 23–19 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 41–77 | 70–62 |
| Offensive coordinator | Clint Trickett | Dana Holgorsen |
| Defensive coordinator | Aazaar Abdul-Rahim / Ted Monachino | Rob Aurich |
Staff list as of October 2, 5:43 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 2 times since 2021: Maryland won 1 and Nebraska 1.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2025 | Nebraska 34, Maryland 31 Nebraska won | ||
| Nov 11, 2023 | Maryland 13, Nebraska 10 Maryland won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Maryland Terrapins
- Maryland Terrapins team stats
- Illinois Fighting Illini at Maryland Terrapins (Oct 31)
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights 37, Maryland Terrapins 30 (Oct 17)
- Maryland Terrapins 16, Ohio State Buckeyes 45 (Oct 10)
- UCLA Bruins 54, Maryland Terrapins 3 (Sep 26)
Nebraska Cornhuskers
More NCAAF games on October 3, 2026
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- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 0, Kansas Jayhawks 55 (Oct 3)
- Michigan Wolverines 14, Minnesota Golden Gophers 20 (Oct 3)
- Alabama Crimson Tide 56, Mississippi State Bulldogs 23 (Oct 3)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish 37, North Carolina Tar Heels 26 (Oct 3)
- Boston College Eagles 16, SMU Mustangs 25 (Oct 3)
- Syracuse Orange 42, UConn Huskies 41 (Oct 3)
- Stanford Cardinal 3, Wake Forest Demon Deacons 57 (Oct 3)
- Michigan State Spartans 3, Wisconsin Badgers 31 (Oct 3)
- Vanderbilt Commodores 14, Georgia Bulldogs 38 (Oct 3)
- Western Michigan Broncos 20, Buffalo Bulls 17 (Oct 3)
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