Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Colorado Buffaloes Preview & Odds — October 3, 2026
Matchup preview
Texas Tech (3-0) visits Colorado (1-2) on Saturday, October 3 at 7:31 PM ET.
Texas Tech has the 25th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 41st-ranked defense (ranks among the 94 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Colorado has the 90th-ranked offense and the 28th-ranked defense. When Texas Tech has the ball, a 25th-ranked offense (+0.138 EPA per play) meets a 28th-ranked defense (−0.053 allowed); when Colorado has it, a 90th-ranked offense (−0.197) meets a 41st-ranked defense (−0.014 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Texas Tech offense is at 43.5% (50th) and the Colorado offense at 41.2% (67th). Texas Tech scores 37.3 points per game (13th) and allows 21.3 (44th); Colorado scores 11.3 (130th) and allows 25.7 (66th).
Texas Tech is a 12.5-point road favorite, with Colorado getting the points at home. The spread opened at Texas Tech -15.5. The total is 50.5, down from 51.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the moneyline (Texas Tech -525, Colorado +380) prices Texas Tech at 80% and Colorado at 20%.
Built from public team and player data; ranks are league-wide and update daily until kickoff.
Tale of the tape
Texas Tech2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (teams with data: 94 for EPA per play / Success rate; 96 for EPA per play allowed / Success rate allowed; 138 for Points per game / Points allowed per game); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Quarterbacks
- Attempts116
- Completion %69.0%42nd
- Passing yards96874th
- Yards per attempt8.370th
- TD–INT4–5
- Attempts95
- Completion %64.2%99th
- Passing yards733150th
- Yards per attempt7.7100th
- TD–INT6–2
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 240 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts.
Success by situation
| Situation | Texas Tech | Colorado |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateTexas Tech offense vs Colorado defense | 36.7%105th | 43.4%109th |
| Early-down success rateColorado offense vs Texas Tech defense | 41.2%86th | 43.6%30th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateTexas Tech offense vs Colorado defense | 51.5%17th | 40.5%77th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateColorado offense vs Texas Tech defense | 39.5%70th | 31.6%110th |
| Explosive play rateTexas Tech offense vs Colorado defense | 7.6%52nd | 9.7%123rd |
| Explosive play rateColorado offense vs Texas Tech defense | 6.0%47th | 5.1%102nd |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 48.1%79th-highest | 47.7%83rd-highest |
On 3rd down Texas Tech converts 51.5% (17th) against a Colorado defense allowing 40.5% (77th).
On 3rd down Colorado converts 31.6% (110th) against a Texas Tech defense allowing 39.5% (70th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Travel and schedule
Texas Tech has 7 days since its last game and Colorado 7. Texas Tech travels about 481 miles from home, a 1-hour time-zone change.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 1 time since 2021: Texas Tech won 0 and Colorado 1.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | Colorado 41, Texas Tech 27 Colorado won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Odds and line movement
Texas Tech -15.5 (-112)
Texas Tech -12.5 (-110)
Colorado +480 16%
Colorado +380 20%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. The Now column updates from our odds board. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Best available prices on Oct 2
- Texas Tech -12.5-109Bally Bet
- Colorado +13.5-106Novig
- Over 49.5-115ESPN BET
- Under 50+105ProphetX
- Texas Tech-441Novig
- Colorado+435ProphetX
Dig deeper
Teams
Colorado Buffaloes
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