Cincinnati Bearcats vs Arizona Wildcats Final — October 3, 2026
CINOffense2026 regular season to dateARIZ
CINDefenseARIZCINLast 10 gamesARIZRest & travelrest and travel
CINRest & travelARIZAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Margin of each of the last 4 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Cincinnati (3-0) visited Arizona (2-1) on Saturday, October 3 at 11:00 PM ET.
Cincinnati has the 13th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 45th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Arizona has the 27th-ranked offense and the 72nd-ranked defense. When Cincinnati has the ball, a 13th-ranked offense (+0.273 EPA per play) meets a 72nd-ranked defense (+0.025 allowed); when Arizona has it, a 27th-ranked offense (+0.173) meets a 45th-ranked defense (−0.058 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Cincinnati offense is at 45.9% (40th) and the Arizona offense at 47.0% (30th). Cincinnati scores 33.3 points per game (30th) and allows 24.0 (57th); Arizona scores 31.0 (43rd) and allows 23.0 (48th).
Arizona closed as a 7-point favorite at home against Cincinnati. The spread opened at Arizona -7.5. The total closed at 55.5, up from 54.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Cincinnati +220, Arizona -275) prices Cincinnati at 30% and Arizona at 70%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Cincinnati Bearcats 7, Arizona Wildcats 34
Arizona Wildcats won by 27.
- Against the closing spread (Arizona Wildcats -7): Arizona Wildcats covered.
- Combined score 41 vs the closing total of 55.5: Under.
- Arizona Wildcats closed at -275 on the moneyline (a 70% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Cincinnati Bearcats.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Cincinnati Bearcats 30%, Arizona Wildcats 70%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 3:02 — Arizona Wildcats ball, 4th & 2 at CIN 20Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush left for 1 yard loss to the CIN21 (#18 J.Beeler), TURNOVER ON DOWNSCincinnati Bearcats 14% → 19% (+5 pts) · Drive 5 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 8:53 — Cincinnati Bearcats ball, 3rd & 9 at CIN 46No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.French IV pass complete short right to #3 C.Tabb caught at CIN44, for 23 yards to the ARIZ31 (#35 Q.Olson; #6 T.Brown), 1ST DOWNCincinnati Bearcats 19% → 25% (+6 pts) · Drive 8 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 5:49 — Cincinnati Bearcats ball, 4th & 2 at ARIZ 2Shotgun #4 J.French IV pass incomplete short right to #87 G.Grover thrown to ARIZ00 broken up by #23 G.Hunter QB hurried by #3 T.Smith, TURNOVER ON DOWNSArizona Wildcats 75% → 82% (+7 pts) · Drive 8 in Drive X-Ray
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, Arizona Wildcats would win 98% of the time (Cincinnati Bearcats 2%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Arizona Wildcats. Here is where that came from.
| Cincinnati | Points added | Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| -9.0 | Passingdropbacks | +15.2 |
| +0.3 | Rushingdesigned runs | +2.1 |
| +11.6 | Explosive plays4 plays · 3 plays | +7.5 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -3.1 |
| -5.5 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +0.7 |
| +0.1 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +0.8 |
| -3.5 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 2 · 4 of 7 | -6.2 |
| -6.0 | All plays | +17.0 |
The biggest single gap: passing, worth about 24.1 points to Arizona Wildcats. The final margin was 27.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Arizona Wildcats closed as the market favourite at 70% and won.
The line moved toward Cincinnati Bearcats before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Cincinnati +7.5 (-110)
Cincinnati +7 (-112)
Arizona -292 71%
Arizona -275 70%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts94
- Completion %74.5%7th
- Passing yards796130th
- Yards per attempt8.565th
- TD–INT6–0
- Rushing yards36825th
- Season line51 carries, 368 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving yards26773rd
- Season line18 catches, 267 yds, 3 TD
- Tackles2977th
- Attempts130
- Completion %75.4%6th
- Passing yards1,11445th
- Yards per attempt8.659th
- TD–INT11–2
- Rushing yards161199th
- Season line40 carries, 161 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving yards27862nd
- Season line19 catches, 278 yds, 4 TD
- Tackles24186th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 241 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 2, 5:47 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Cincinnati | Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateCincinnati offense vs Arizona defense | 42.7%37th | 41.5%92nd |
| Early-down success rateArizona offense vs Cincinnati defense | 44.4%111th | 42.4%42nd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateCincinnati offense vs Arizona defense | 41.7%59th | 41.7%83rd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateArizona offense vs Cincinnati defense | 46.3%108th | 59.5%3rd |
| Explosive play rateCincinnati offense vs Arizona defense | 8.2%39th | 6.3%58th |
| Explosive play rateArizona offense vs Cincinnati defense | 6.1%48th | 8.2%37th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 41.3%117th-highest | 57.4%20th-highest |
On 3rd down Cincinnati converts 41.7% (59th) against a Arizona defense allowing 41.7% (83rd).
On 3rd down Arizona converts 59.5% (3rd) against a Cincinnati defense allowing 46.3% (108th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Cincinnati | Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Scott Satterfield | Brent Brennan |
| Tenureat this school | 4th season | 3rd season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 19–22 | 16–13 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 91–62 | 50–61 |
| Offensive coordinator | Nic Cardwell / Pete Thomas | Seth Doege |
| Defensive coordinator | Nate Woody | Danny Gonzales |
Staff list as of October 2, 5:43 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 1 time since 2021: Cincinnati won 0 and Arizona 1.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2025 | Arizona 30, Cincinnati 24 Arizona won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Cincinnati Bearcats
- Cincinnati Bearcats team stats
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- Texas Tech Red Raiders 24, Cincinnati Bearcats 37 (Oct 24)
- Cincinnati Bearcats 42, West Virginia Mountaineers 45 (Oct 17)
- Kansas State Wildcats 26, Cincinnati Bearcats 31 (Sep 26)
Arizona Wildcats
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