Ohio State Buckeyes vs Iowa Hawkeyes Final — October 3, 2026
OSUOffense2026 regular season to dateIOWA
OSUDefenseIOWAOSULast 10 gamesIOWARest & travelrest and travel
OSURest & travelIOWAAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 4 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Ohio State (3-1) visited Iowa (3-0) on Saturday, October 3 at 3:30 PM ET.
Ohio State has the 5th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 63rd-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Iowa has the 52nd-ranked offense and the 29th-ranked defense. When Ohio State has the ball, a 5th-ranked offense (+0.394 EPA per play) meets a 29th-ranked defense (−0.117 allowed); when Iowa has it, a 52nd-ranked offense (+0.061) meets a 63rd-ranked defense (−0.010 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Ohio State offense is at 53.8% (2nd) and the Iowa offense at 39.2% (114th). Ohio State scores 45.0 points per game (5th) and allows 12.2 (5th); Iowa scores 25.3 (72nd) and allows 10.7 (4th).
Ohio State is 3-1 and 3-1 against the spread; its last game was a 42-19 win over Illinois.
Ohio State closed as a 14.5-point road favorite, with Iowa getting the points at home. The spread closed where it opened. The total closed at 46.5, up from 44.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Ohio State -760, Iowa +500) prices Ohio State at 84% and Iowa at 16%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Ohio State Buckeyes 31, Iowa Hawkeyes 14
Ohio State Buckeyes won by 17.
- Against the closing spread (Iowa Hawkeyes +14.5): Ohio State Buckeyes covered.
- Combined score 45 vs the closing total of 46.5: Under.
- Ohio State Buckeyes closed at -760 on the moneyline (a 84% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
The market barely moved from open to close.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Ohio State Buckeyes 84%, Iowa Hawkeyes 16%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 14:13 — Iowa Hawkeyes ball, 2nd & 8 at IOWA 27#9 H.Brown sacked for loss of 13 yards to the IOWA14 (#2 K.Jackson Jr.), fumble by #9 H.Brown recovered by OSU #14 C.Alliegro at IOWA14, End Of PlayOhio State Buckeyes 85% → 90% (+6 pts) · Drive 1 in Drive X-Ray
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, Ohio State Buckeyes would win 99% of the time (Iowa Hawkeyes 1%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Ohio State Buckeyes. Here is where that came from.
| Ohio State | Points added | Iowa |
|---|---|---|
| +2.6 | Passingdropbacks | +6.1 |
| -6.1 | Rushingdesigned runs | -7.9 |
| +10.2 | Explosive plays4 plays · 1 plays | +2.5 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -2.3 |
| +0.1 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +4.7 |
| -3.6 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -0.1 |
| +1.5 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 6 · 1 of 2 | -1.8 |
| +4.8 | All plays | +1.2 |
The biggest single gap: explosive plays, worth about 7.6 points to Ohio State Buckeyes. The final margin was 17.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Ohio State Buckeyes closed as the market favourite at 84% and won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Ohio State -14.5 (-105)
Ohio State -14.5 (-111)
Iowa +500 16%
Iowa +500 16%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts115
- Completion %72.2%16th
- Passing yards1,20624th
- Yards per attempt10.510th
- TD–INT10–1
- Rushing yards28366th
- Season line50 carries, 283 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving yards6171st
- Season line33 catches, 617 yds, 7 TD
- Tackles23221st
- Attempts97
- Completion %68.0%54th
- Passing yards700164th
- Yards per attempt7.2132nd
- TD–INT5–0
- Rushing yards28465th
- Season line39 carries, 284 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving yards24790th
- Season line20 catches, 247 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles3812th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 241 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 2, 5:47 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Ohio State | Iowa |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateOhio State offense vs Iowa defense | 50.0%4th | 38.5%57th |
| Early-down success rateIowa offense vs Ohio State defense | 35.3%18th | 32.6%128th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateOhio State offense vs Iowa defense | 48.6%24th | 28.1%5th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateIowa offense vs Ohio State defense | 40.9%80th | 43.2%48th |
| Explosive play rateOhio State offense vs Iowa defense | 7.9%43rd | 7.0%81st |
| Explosive play rateIowa offense vs Ohio State defense | 5.0%27th | 4.8%110th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 55.6%34th-highest | 56.9%26th-highest |
On 3rd down Ohio State converts 48.6% (24th) against a Iowa defense allowing 28.1% (5th).
On 3rd down Iowa converts 43.2% (48th) against a Ohio State defense allowing 40.9% (80th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Ohio State | Iowa |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Ryan Day | Kirk Ferentz |
| Tenureat this school | 8th season | 28th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 85–13 | 217–128 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 85–13 | 217–128 |
| Offensive coordinator | Keenan Bailey / Arthur Smith | Tim Lester |
| Defensive coordinator | Matt Patricia / Tim Walton | Phil Parker |
Staff list as of October 2, 5:43 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 2 times since 2021: Ohio State won 2 and Iowa 0.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2024 | Iowa 7, Ohio State 35 Ohio State won | ||
| Oct 22, 2022 | Iowa 10, Ohio State 54 Ohio State won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Ohio State Buckeyes
- Ohio State Buckeyes team stats
- Ohio State Buckeyes at USC Trojans (Oct 31)
- Ohio State Buckeyes 19, Indiana Hoosiers 15 (Oct 17)
- Maryland Terrapins 16, Ohio State Buckeyes 45 (Oct 10)
- Kent State Golden Flashes 3, Ohio State Buckeyes 59 (Sep 19)
Iowa Hawkeyes
More NCAAF games on October 3, 2026
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- Michigan Wolverines 14, Minnesota Golden Gophers 20 (Oct 3)
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- Notre Dame Fighting Irish 37, North Carolina Tar Heels 26 (Oct 3)
- Boston College Eagles 16, SMU Mustangs 25 (Oct 3)
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- Stanford Cardinal 3, Wake Forest Demon Deacons 57 (Oct 3)
- Michigan State Spartans 3, Wisconsin Badgers 31 (Oct 3)
- Vanderbilt Commodores 14, Georgia Bulldogs 38 (Oct 3)
- Western Michigan Broncos 20, Buffalo Bulls 17 (Oct 3)
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