Akron Zips vs Central Michigan Chippewas Final — October 3, 2026
AKROffense2026 regular season to dateCMU
AKRDefenseCMUAKRLast 10 gamesCMURest & travelrest and travel
AKRRest & travelCMUAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Margin of each of the last 4 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Akron (0-3) visited Central Michigan (1-2) on Saturday, October 3 at 3:30 PM ET.
Akron has the 129th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 105th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Central Michigan has the 89th-ranked offense and the 127th-ranked defense. When Akron has the ball, a 129th-ranked offense (−0.268 EPA per play) meets a 127th-ranked defense (+0.270 allowed); when Central Michigan has it, a 89th-ranked offense (−0.050) meets a 105th-ranked defense (+0.143 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Akron offense is at 43.1% (71st) and the Central Michigan offense at 44.4% (52nd). Akron scores 11.0 points per game (132nd) and allows 39.0 (125th); Central Michigan scores 11.3 (130th) and allows 33.3 (108th).
Central Michigan closed as a 7-point favorite at home against Akron. The spread opened at Central Michigan -5.5. The total closed at 47.5, up from 46.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Akron +222, Central Michigan -275) prices Akron at 30% and Central Michigan at 70%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Akron Zips 17, Central Michigan Chippewas 41
Central Michigan Chippewas won by 24.
- Against the closing spread (Central Michigan Chippewas -7): Central Michigan Chippewas covered.
- Combined score 58 vs the closing total of 47.5: Over.
- Central Michigan Chippewas closed at -275 on the moneyline (a 70% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 5 points toward Central Michigan Chippewas.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Akron Zips 30%, Central Michigan Chippewas 70%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 12:07 — Central Michigan Chippewas ball, 1st & 10 at CMU 23Shotgun #7 A.Flores rush middle for 3 yards loss to the CMU20 fumbled by #7 A.Flores at CMU20 recovered by Akron #16 D.Frazier at CMU20, End Of PlayAkron Zips 26% → 38% (+12 pts) · Drive 2 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 10:38 — Akron Zips ball, 2nd & 9 at CMU 9No Huddle-Shotgun #6 B.Roggow sacked for loss of 14 yards to the CMU23 (#11 X.White, #92 J.Cherry) PENALTY Akron UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (#3 K.Mason) 15 yards…Central Michigan Chippewas 62% → 73% (+11 pts) · Drive 3 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 5:37 — Akron Zips ball, 4th & 4 at CMU 24#47 M.Schramm field goal attempt from 41 yards NO GOOD blocked by #97 M.Van Fleet (H: #95 J.Castle, LS: #36 C.Volpe), clock 05:29 recovered by Akron #36 C.Volpe…Central Michigan Chippewas 67% → 73% (+7 pts) · Drive 5 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 10:37 — Central Michigan Chippewas ball, 4th & 1 at CMU 45Shotgun #7 A.Flores rush middle for 55 yards gain to the Akron00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:37, 1ST DOWN #38 C.VanHuis kick attempt good (H: #18 D.Duley, LS: #51 Z.Curt…Central Michigan Chippewas 50% → 68% (+18 pts) · Drive 10 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 7:32 — Central Michigan Chippewas ball, 2nd & 10 at AKR 48Shotgun #7 A.Flores pass complete short middle to #16 S.Foster caught at Akron40, for 48 yards to the Akron00 QB hurried by #16 D.Frazier TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:32,…Central Michigan Chippewas 73% → 84% (+11 pts) · Drive 12 in Drive X-Ray
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, Central Michigan Chippewas would win 99% of the time (Akron Zips 1%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Central Michigan Chippewas. Here is where that came from.
| Akron | Points added | Central Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| -10.8 | Passingdropbacks | -12.7 |
| +2.4 | Rushingdesigned runs | +8.5 |
| +14.3 | Explosive plays5 plays · 6 plays | +20.1 |
| -6.0 | Turnovers2 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -6.0 |
| -1.6 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -0.2 |
| +2.4 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -2.3 |
| -0.3 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 4 · 1 of 1 | +3.7 |
| +0.4 | All plays | +11.1 |
The biggest single gap: rushing, worth about 6.1 points to Central Michigan Chippewas. The final margin was 24.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Central Michigan Chippewas closed as the market favourite at 70% and won.
The line moved toward Central Michigan Chippewas before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Akron +5.5 (-110)
Akron +7 (-113)
Central Michigan -215 65%
Central Michigan -275 70%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts66
- Completion %80.3%2nd
- Passing yards380237th
- Yards per attempt5.8217th
- TD–INT4–0
- Rushing yards187162nd
- Season line44 carries, 187 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving yards165232nd
- Season line18 catches, 165 yds
- Tackles3432nd
- Attempts33
- Completion %57.6%
- Passing yards123
- Yards per attempt3.7
- TD–INT0–2
- Rushing yards32046th
- Season line63 carries, 320 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards46812th
- Season line7 catches, 46 yds
- Tackles3247th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 241 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 2, 5:47 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Akron | Central Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateAkron offense vs Central Michigan defense | 42.5%41st | 47.5%132nd |
| Early-down success rateCentral Michigan offense vs Akron defense | 43.4%109th | 40.5%55th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateAkron offense vs Central Michigan defense | 34.5%98th | 51.9%126th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateCentral Michigan offense vs Akron defense | 48.5%116th | 32.0%107th |
| Explosive play rateAkron offense vs Central Michigan defense | 5.1%103rd | 7.9%98th |
| Explosive play rateCentral Michigan offense vs Akron defense | 10.1%127th | 3.6%130th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 59.1%14th-highest | 26.8%135th-highest |
On 3rd down Akron converts 34.5% (98th) against a Central Michigan defense allowing 51.9% (126th).
On 3rd down Central Michigan converts 32.0% (107th) against a Akron defense allowing 48.5% (116th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Akron | Central Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Joe Moorhead | Matt Drinkall |
| Tenureat this school | 5th season | 2nd season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 14–38 | 9–8 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 28–50 | 9–8 |
| Offensive coordinator | Joe Moorhead | Jim Chapin / Derek Fulton |
| Defensive coordinator | Tim Tibesar | Sean Cronin |
Staff list as of October 2, 5:43 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 3 times since 2021: Akron won 1 and Central Michigan 2.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2025 | Central Michigan 22, Akron 28 Akron won | ||
| Oct 14, 2023 | Akron 10, Central Michigan 17 Central Michigan won | ||
| Oct 15, 2022 | Central Michigan 28, Akron 21 Central Michigan won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Akron Zips
- Akron Zips team stats
- Akron Zips 20, Kent State Golden Flashes 35 (Oct 24)
- Akron Zips 14, Miami (OH) RedHawks 34 (Oct 17)
- Eastern Michigan Eagles 25, Akron Zips 23 (Oct 10)
Central Michigan Chippewas
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