Arkansas Razorbacks vs Texas A&M Aggies Final — October 3, 2026
ARKOffense2026 regular season to dateTA&M
ARKDefenseTA&MARKLast 10 gamesTA&MRest & travelrest and travel
ARKRest & travelTA&MAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 4 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Arkansas (1-2) visited Texas A&M (2-2) on Saturday, October 3 at 7:00 PM ET.
Arkansas has the 117th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 135th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Texas A&M has the 98th-ranked offense and the 43rd-ranked defense. When Arkansas has the ball, a 117th-ranked offense (−0.170 EPA per play) meets a 43rd-ranked defense (−0.071 allowed); when Texas A&M has it, a 98th-ranked offense (−0.097) meets a 135th-ranked defense (+0.336 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Arkansas offense is at 37.9% (120th) and the Texas A&M offense at 39.1% (115th). Arkansas scores 20.3 points per game (96th) and allows 31.3 (97th); Texas A&M scores 31.2 (42nd) and allows 21.5 (43rd).
Texas A&M is 2-2 and 2-2 against the spread; its last game was a 35-6 loss to LSU.
Texas A&M closed as a 13.5-point favorite at home against Arkansas. The spread opened at Texas A&M -16. The total closed at 50.5, down from 51.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Arkansas +425, Texas A&M -600) prices Arkansas at 18% and Texas A&M at 82%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Arkansas Razorbacks 7, Texas A&M Aggies 34
Texas A&M Aggies won by 27.
- Against the closing spread (Texas A&M Aggies -13.5): Texas A&M Aggies covered.
- Combined score 41 vs the closing total of 50.5: Under.
- Texas A&M Aggies closed at -600 on the moneyline (a 82% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 2 points toward Arkansas Razorbacks.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Arkansas Razorbacks 18%, Texas A&M Aggies 82%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 13:39 — Arkansas Razorbacks ball, 1st & 10 at ARK 41No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass intercepted by #7 D.Brooks at TAMU33 #7 D.Brooks return 39 yards to the ARK28 (#54 A.Hawkes)Texas A&M Aggies 80% → 88% (+8 pts) · Drive 1 in Drive X-Ray
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, Texas A&M Aggies would win >99% of the time (Arkansas Razorbacks <1%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Texas A&M Aggies. Here is where that came from.
| Arkansas | Points added | Texas A&M |
|---|---|---|
| -2.8 | Passingdropbacks | -2.5 |
| -3.4 | Rushingdesigned runs | +3.5 |
| +6.7 | Explosive plays2 plays · 4 plays | +7.2 |
| -7.1 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| -3.3 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +2.6 |
| +3.0 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -1.5 |
| -7.9 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 0 of 1 · 4 of 5 | +2.0 |
| -14.8 | All plays | +11.3 |
The biggest single gap: red zone, worth about 9.9 points to Texas A&M Aggies. The final margin was 27.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Texas A&M Aggies closed as the market favourite at 82% and won.
The line moved toward Arkansas Razorbacks before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Arkansas +16 (-112)
Arkansas +13.5 (-110)
Texas A&M -770 84%
Texas A&M -600 82%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts132
- Completion %62.1%124th
- Passing yards92785th
- Yards per attempt7.0151st
- TD–INT5–3
- Rushing yards96348th
- Season line33 carries, 96 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving yards4736th
- Season line28 catches, 473 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles23221st
- Attempts130
- Completion %55.4%200th
- Passing yards738148th
- Yards per attempt5.7219th
- TD–INT6–4
- Rushing yards24885th
- Season line56 carries, 248 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving yards225121st
- Season line22 catches, 225 yds, 2 TD
- Tackles23221st
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 241 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 2, 5:47 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Arkansas | Texas A&M |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateArkansas offense vs Texas A&M defense | 30.1%133rd | 43.3%108th |
| Early-down success rateTexas A&M offense vs Arkansas defense | 48.5%134th | 36.0%109th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateArkansas offense vs Texas A&M defense | 43.8%46th | 28.1%5th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateTexas A&M offense vs Arkansas defense | 48.0%114th | 38.0%81st |
| Explosive play rateArkansas offense vs Texas A&M defense | 6.2%89th | 10.2%130th |
| Explosive play rateTexas A&M offense vs Arkansas defense | 6.2%54th | 3.3%131st |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 58.9%16th-highest | 52.8%55th-highest |
On 3rd down Arkansas converts 43.8% (46th) against a Texas A&M defense allowing 28.1% (5th).
On 3rd down Texas A&M converts 38.0% (81st) against a Arkansas defense allowing 48.0% (114th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Arkansas | Texas A&M |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Ryan Silverfield | Mike Elko |
| Tenureat this school | 1st season | 3rd season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 2–2 | 21–9 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 52–27 | 37–18 |
| Offensive coordinator | Tim Cramsey | Holmon Wiggins |
| Defensive coordinator | Ron Roberts | Lyle Hemphill / Elijah Robinson |
Staff list as of October 2, 5:43 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 5 times since 2021: Arkansas won 1 and Texas A&M 4.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2025 | Texas A&M 45, Arkansas 42 Texas A&M won | ||
| Sep 28, 2024 neutral | Arkansas 17, Texas A&M 21 Texas A&M won | ||
| Sep 30, 2023 neutral | Texas A&M 34, Arkansas 22 Texas A&M won | ||
| Sep 24, 2022 neutral | Arkansas 21, Texas A&M 23 Texas A&M won | ||
| Sep 25, 2021 neutral | Texas A&M 10, Arkansas 20 Arkansas won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Arkansas Razorbacks
- Arkansas Razorbacks team stats
- Missouri Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks (Oct 31)
- Arkansas Razorbacks 31, Vanderbilt Commodores 21 (Oct 17)
- Tennessee Volunteers 24, Arkansas Razorbacks 17 (Oct 10)
Texas A&M Aggies
More NCAAF games on October 3, 2026
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