Maryland Terrapins vs Ohio State Buckeyes Final — October 10, 2026
MDOffense2026 regular season to dateOSU
MDDefenseOSUMDRecent formOSUMDHome and roadseason to dateOSUMDLast 10 gamesOSURest & travelrest and travel
MDRest & travelOSUAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 5 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Maryland (1-3) visited Ohio State (4-1) on Saturday, October 10 at 4:15 PM ET.
Maryland has the 110th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 125th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Ohio State has the 10th-ranked offense and the 35th-ranked defense. When Maryland has the ball, a 110th-ranked offense (−0.070 EPA per play) meets a 35th-ranked defense (−0.042 allowed); when Ohio State has it, a 10th-ranked offense (+0.293) meets a 125th-ranked defense (+0.269 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Maryland offense is at 49.1% (45th) and the Ohio State offense at 55.9% (5th). Maryland scores 22.5 points per game (85th) and allows 37.8 (121st); Ohio State scores 42.2 (7th) and allows 12.6 (7th).
Maryland is 2-3 and 2-3 against the spread; its last game was a 48-23 loss to Nebraska. Ohio State is 4-1 and 4-1 against the spread; its last game was a 31-14 win over Iowa.
Ohio State closed as a 31.5-point favorite at home against Maryland. The spread opened at Ohio State -34.5. The total closed at 56.5, up from 55.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Maryland +3150, Ohio State -10476) prices Maryland at 3% and Ohio State at 97%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Maryland Terrapins 16, Ohio State Buckeyes 45
Ohio State Buckeyes won by 29.
- Against the closing spread (Ohio State Buckeyes -31.5): Maryland Terrapins covered.
- Combined score 61 vs the closing total of 56.5: Over.
- Ohio State Buckeyes closed at -10476 on the moneyline (a 97% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Maryland Terrapins.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Maryland Terrapins 3%, Ohio State Buckeyes 97%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Game DNA
| Maryland | Points added | Ohio State |
|---|---|---|
| -3.8 | Passingdropbacks | +0.0 |
| -7.4 | Rushingdesigned runs | -1.1 |
| +0.0 | Explosive plays0 plays · 5 plays | +16.5 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -9.1 |
| -7.1 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -1.2 |
| +6.6 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -0.9 |
| +0.2 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 2 · 2 of 3 | -0.4 |
| -11.6 | All plays | +3.9 |
The biggest single gap: explosive plays, worth about 16.5 points to Ohio State Buckeyes. The final margin was 29.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Ohio State Buckeyes closed as the market favourite at 97% and won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Maryland +34.5 (-108)
Maryland +31.5 (-112)
Ohio State -21490 98%
Ohio State -10476 97%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts197
- Completion %62.9%112th
- Passing yards1,28852nd
- Yards per attempt6.5186th
- TD–INT7–6
- Rushing yards211175th
- Season line52 carries, 211 yds, 4 TD
- Receiving yards46116th
- Season line42 catches, 461 yds, 4 TD
- Tackles3498th
- Attempts142
- Completion %72.5%14th
- Passing yards1,53012th
- Yards per attempt10.85th
- TD–INT13–1
- Rushing yards35353rd
- Season line66 carries, 353 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving yards8231st
- Season line44 catches, 823 yds, 9 TD
- Tackles26268th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 256 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 7, 5:35 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Maryland | Ohio State |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateMaryland offense vs Ohio State defense | 48.1%20th | 38.0%16th |
| Early-down success rateOhio State offense vs Maryland defense | 43.9%78th | 52.9%6th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateMaryland offense vs Ohio State defense | 38.6%81st | 40.7%76th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateOhio State offense vs Maryland defense | 47.6%115th | 50.0%18th |
| Explosive play rateMaryland offense vs Ohio State defense | 7.0%64th | 4.5%13th |
| Explosive play rateOhio State offense vs Maryland defense | 6.6%66th | 7.3%55th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 63.9%5th-highest | 51.7%62nd-highest |
On 3rd down Maryland converts 38.6% (81st) against a Ohio State defense allowing 40.7% (76th).
On 3rd down Ohio State converts 50.0% (18th) against a Maryland defense allowing 47.6% (115th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Maryland | Ohio State |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Mike Locksley | Ryan Day |
| Tenureat this school | 8th season | 8th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 39–52 | 86–13 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 41–78 | 86–13 |
| Offensive coordinator | Clint Trickett | Keenan Bailey / Arthur Smith |
| Defensive coordinator | Aazaar Abdul-Rahim / Ted Monachino | Matt Patricia / Tim Walton |
Staff list as of October 6, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 3 times since 2021: Maryland won 0 and Ohio State 3.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2023 | Maryland 17, Ohio State 37 Ohio State won | ||
| Nov 19, 2022 | Ohio State 43, Maryland 30 Ohio State won | ||
| Oct 9, 2021 | Maryland 17, Ohio State 66 Ohio State won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Maryland Terrapins
- Maryland Terrapins team stats
- Illinois Fighting Illini at Maryland Terrapins (Oct 31)
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights 37, Maryland Terrapins 30 (Oct 17)
- Maryland Terrapins 23, Nebraska Cornhuskers 48 (Oct 3)
- UCLA Bruins 54, Maryland Terrapins 3 (Sep 26)
Ohio State Buckeyes
More NCAAF games on October 10, 2026
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