Fresno State Bulldogs vs Washington State Cougars Final — October 3, 2026
FRESOffense2026 regular season to dateWSU
FRESDefenseWSUFRESLast 10 gamesWSURest & travelrest and travel
FRESRest & travelWSUAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 4 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Fresno State (3-1) visited Washington State (0-3) on Saturday, October 3 at 9:30 PM ET.
Fresno State has the 57th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 67th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Washington State has the 128th-ranked offense and the 84th-ranked defense. When Fresno State has the ball, a 57th-ranked offense (+0.047 EPA per play) meets a 84th-ranked defense (+0.066 allowed); when Washington State has it, a 128th-ranked offense (−0.249) meets a 67th-ranked defense (+0.006 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Fresno State offense is at 42.8% (74th) and the Washington State offense at 40.0% (104th). Fresno State scores 28.2 points per game (62nd) and allows 19.0 (32nd); Washington State scores 13.7 (124th) and allows 30.7 (88th).
Fresno State is 3-1 and 3-1 against the spread; its last game was a 38-24 win over Rice.
Washington State closed as a 2-point favorite at home against Fresno State. The spread opened at Washington State -1.5. The total closed at 44.5, down from 45.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Fresno State +105, Washington State -130) prices Fresno State at 46% and Washington State at 54%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Fresno State Bulldogs 26, Washington State Cougars 6
Fresno State Bulldogs won by 20.
- Against the closing spread (Washington State Cougars -2): Fresno State Bulldogs covered.
- Combined score 32 vs the closing total of 44.5: Under.
- Fresno State Bulldogs closed at +105 on the moneyline (a 46% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 2 points toward Washington State Cougars.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Fresno State Bulldogs 46%, Washington State Cougars 54%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q2 12:34 — Fresno State Bulldogs ball, 4th & 1 at FRES 49#7 J.Mandal rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FRES50 fumbled by #7 J.Mandal at FRES50 forced by #98 J.Leaupepetele recovered by WSU #13 K.Terrell at FRES50, End…Washington State Cougars 44% → 53% (+9 pts) · Drive 7 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 7:27 — Fresno State Bulldogs ball, 1st & 10 at WSU 39#7 J.Mandal pass complete deep right to #88 D.Gaius-Anyaegbu caught at WSU14, for 36 yards to the WSU03 (#13 K.Terrell), 1ST DOWNFresno State Bulldogs 54% → 62% (+9 pts) · Drive 9 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 15:00 — Washington State Cougars ball, 1st & 10 at WSU 25Shotgun #12 C.Pinnick sacked for loss of 10 yards to the WSU15 (#11 D.Hampsten)Fresno State Bulldogs 44% → 51% (+7 pts) · Drive 13 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 8:46 — Washington State Cougars ball, 1st & 10 at WSU 25Shotgun #12 C.Pinnick rush middle for 1 yard loss to the WSU24 fumbled by #12 C.Pinnick at WSU24 recovered by FRES #0 D.Laffitte at WSU24, End Of PlayFresno State Bulldogs 71% → 83% (+12 pts) · Drive 15 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 7:13 — Fresno State Bulldogs ball, 4th & 1 at WSU 15#38 M.Watanabe field goal attempt from 33 yards NO GOOD blocked by #34 D.Lewis (H: #41 N.Verdugo, LS: #52 E.Rossetti), clock 07:13 recovered by WSU #9 M.McLain a…Washington State Cougars 19% → 26% (+7 pts) · Drive 16 in Drive X-Ray
Fresno State Bulldogs won after falling as low as 40% (Q1 13:25).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, Fresno State Bulldogs would win >99% of the time (Washington State Cougars <1%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Fresno State Bulldogs. Here is where that came from.
| Fresno State | Points added | Washington State |
|---|---|---|
| +3.5 | Passingdropbacks | -22.3 |
| -3.9 | Rushingdesigned runs | -2.5 |
| +8.3 | Explosive plays4 plays · 1 plays | +3.5 |
| -4.1 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 2 giveaways | -11.1 |
| +0.7 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +2.9 |
| -6.8 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -1.3 |
| +0.1 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 7 · 0 of 1 | -2.5 |
| -2.2 | All plays | -33.3 |
The biggest single gap: passing, worth about 25.8 points to Fresno State Bulldogs. The final margin was 20.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Washington State Cougars closed as the market favourite at 54% and lost.
The line moved toward Washington State Cougars before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Fresno State +1.5 (-112)
Fresno State +2 (-112)
Washington State -120 52%
Washington State -130 54%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts104
- Completion %64.4%96th
- Passing yards789132nd
- Yards per attempt7.6109th
- TD–INT6–1
- Rushing yards24092nd
- Season line36 carries, 240 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving yards26179th
- Season line18 catches, 261 yds, 2 TD
- Tackles3247th
- Attempts108
- Completion %61.1%143rd
- Passing yards644181st
- Yards per attempt6.0208th
- TD–INT3–4
- Rushing yards210130th
- Season line36 carries, 210 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving yards161241st
- Season line15 catches, 161 yds
- Tackles24186th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 241 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 2, 5:47 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Fresno State | Washington State |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateFresno State offense vs Washington State defense | 35.7%114th | 37.7%43rd |
| Early-down success rateWashington State offense vs Fresno State defense | 45.0%118th | 40.7%53rd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateFresno State offense vs Washington State defense | 40.0%67th | 52.5%128th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateWashington State offense vs Fresno State defense | 37.8%57th | 18.2%135th |
| Explosive play rateFresno State offense vs Washington State defense | 7.6%49th | 10.2%129th |
| Explosive play rateWashington State offense vs Fresno State defense | 7.6%91st | 3.1%133rd |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 48.2%78th-highest | 55.0%40th-highest |
On 3rd down Fresno State converts 40.0% (67th) against a Washington State defense allowing 52.5% (128th).
On 3rd down Washington State converts 18.2% (135th) against a Fresno State defense allowing 37.8% (57th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Fresno State | Washington State |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Matt Entz | Kirby Moore |
| Tenureat this school | 2nd season | 1st season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 12–5 | 1–3 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 12–5 | 1–3 |
| Offensive coordinator | Josh Davis | Matt Miller |
| Defensive coordinator | Nick Benedetto | Trent Bray |
Staff list as of October 2, 5:43 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 2 times since 2021: Fresno State won 1 and Washington State 1.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2024 | Washington State 25, Fresno State 17 Washington State won | ||
| Dec 17, 2022 bowl | Washington State 6, Fresno State 29 Fresno State won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Fresno State Bulldogs
- Fresno State Bulldogs team stats
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Washington State Cougars
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