Utah State Aggies vs Boise State Broncos Final — October 3, 2026
USUOffense2026 regular season to dateBOIS
USUDefenseBOISUSULast 10 gamesBOISRest & travelrest and travel
USURest & travelBOISAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Margin of each of the last 4 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Utah State (1-2) visited Boise State (2-1) on Saturday, October 3 at 7:30 PM ET.
Utah State has the 116th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 22nd-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Boise State has the 25th-ranked offense and the 78th-ranked defense. When Utah State has the ball, a 116th-ranked offense (−0.168 EPA per play) meets a 78th-ranked defense (+0.051 allowed); when Boise State has it, a 25th-ranked offense (+0.181) meets a 22nd-ranked defense (−0.146 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Utah State offense is at 36.8% (128th) and the Boise State offense at 45.4% (44th). Utah State scores 11.7 points per game (129th) and allows 19.7 (35th); Boise State scores 32.3 (35th) and allows 20.3 (38th).
Boise State closed as a 19.5-point favorite at home against Utah State. The spread opened at Boise State -20.5. The total closed at 51.5, down from 52.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Utah State +890, Boise State -1700) prices Utah State at 10% and Boise State at 90%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Utah State Aggies 18, Boise State Broncos 37
Boise State Broncos won by 19.
- Against the closing spread (Boise State Broncos -19.5): Utah State Aggies covered.
- Combined score 55 vs the closing total of 51.5: Over.
- Boise State Broncos closed at -1700 on the moneyline (a 90% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Utah State Aggies.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Utah State Aggies 10%, Boise State Broncos 90%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, Boise State Broncos would win 97% of the time (Utah State Aggies 3%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Boise State Broncos. Here is where that came from.
| Utah State | Points added | Boise State |
|---|---|---|
| +2.7 | Passingdropbacks | +5.5 |
| -1.4 | Rushingdesigned runs | -7.7 |
| +19.8 | Explosive plays5 plays · 5 plays | +12.0 |
| -7.0 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 1 giveaways | +0.0 |
| +0.5 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -0.6 |
| -4.5 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +0.0 |
| -4.4 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 3 · 3 of 4 | +6.1 |
| +5.8 | All plays | +15.3 |
The biggest single gap: red zone, worth about 10.4 points to Boise State Broncos. The final margin was 19.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Boise State Broncos closed as the market favourite at 90% and won.
The line moved toward Utah State Aggies before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Utah State +20.5 (-108)
Utah State +19.5 (-110)
Boise State -3335 92%
Boise State -1700 90%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts98
- Completion %56.1%193rd
- Passing yards635186th
- Yards per attempt6.5178th
- TD–INT4–6
- Rushing yards222116th
- Season line63 carries, 222 yds
- Receiving yards28651st
- Season line23 catches, 286 yds, 3 TD
- Tackles3247th
- Attempts111
- Completion %63.1%110th
- Passing yards814127th
- Yards per attempt7.3123rd
- TD–INT9–0
- Rushing yards5923rd
- Season line90 carries, 592 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards27167th
- Season line18 catches, 271 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles24186th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 241 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 2, 5:47 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Utah State | Boise State |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateUtah State offense vs Boise State defense | 30.1%133rd | 37.9%46th |
| Early-down success rateBoise State offense vs Utah State defense | 38.4%54th | 41.1%47th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateUtah State offense vs Boise State defense | 37.1%86th | 22.2%1st |
| 3rd-down conversion rateBoise State offense vs Utah State defense | 42.5%89th | 45.0%41st |
| Explosive play rateUtah State offense vs Boise State defense | 5.3%98th | 10.7%134th |
| Explosive play rateBoise State offense vs Utah State defense | 6.3%56th | 6.8%73rd |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 55.3%36th-highest | 42.2%114th-highest |
On 3rd down Utah State converts 37.1% (86th) against a Boise State defense allowing 22.2% (1st).
On 3rd down Boise State converts 45.0% (41st) against a Utah State defense allowing 42.5% (89th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Utah State | Boise State |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Bronco Mendenhall | Spencer Danielson |
| Tenureat this school | 2nd season | 4th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 7–10 | 27–9 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 147–98 | 27–9 |
| Offensive coordinator | Robert Anae | Nate Potter |
| Defensive coordinator | Nick Howell | Erik Chinander |
Staff list as of October 2, 5:43 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 5 times since 2021: Utah State won 0 and Boise State 5.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2025 | Boise State 25, Utah State 24 Boise State won | ||
| Oct 5, 2024 | Utah State 30, Boise State 62 Boise State won | ||
| Nov 18, 2023 | Boise State 45, Utah State 10 Boise State won | ||
| Nov 25, 2022 | Utah State 23, Boise State 42 Boise State won | ||
| Sep 25, 2021 | Boise State 27, Utah State 3 Boise State won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Utah State Aggies
- Utah State Aggies team stats
- Colorado State Rams at Utah State Aggies (Oct 31)
- Utah State Aggies 17, Texas State Bobcats 20 (Oct 24)
- Washington State Cougars 16, Utah State Aggies 17 (Oct 9)
Boise State Broncos
More NCAAF games on October 3, 2026
- Memphis Tigers 59, Charlotte 49ers 8 (Oct 3)
- Navy Midshipmen 9, Air Force Falcons 14 (Oct 3)
- UCF Knights 17, Houston Cougars 27 (Oct 3)
- West Virginia Mountaineers 42, Iowa State Cyclones 45 (Oct 3)
- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 0, Kansas Jayhawks 55 (Oct 3)
- Michigan Wolverines 14, Minnesota Golden Gophers 20 (Oct 3)
- Alabama Crimson Tide 56, Mississippi State Bulldogs 23 (Oct 3)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish 37, North Carolina Tar Heels 26 (Oct 3)
- Boston College Eagles 16, SMU Mustangs 25 (Oct 3)
- Syracuse Orange 42, UConn Huskies 41 (Oct 3)
- Stanford Cardinal 3, Wake Forest Demon Deacons 57 (Oct 3)
- Michigan State Spartans 3, Wisconsin Badgers 31 (Oct 3)
- Vanderbilt Commodores 14, Georgia Bulldogs 38 (Oct 3)
- Western Michigan Broncos 20, Buffalo Bulls 17 (Oct 3)
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