Toledo Rockets vs Ball State Cardinals Final — October 3, 2026
TOLOffense2026 regular season to dateBALL
TOLDefenseBALLTOLLast 10 gamesBALLRest & travelrest and travel
TOLRest & travelBALLAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Margin of each of the last 4 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Toledo (2-1) visited Ball State (0-3) on Saturday, October 3 at 2:00 PM ET.
Toledo has the 15th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 42nd-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Ball State has the 95th-ranked offense and the 132nd-ranked defense. When Toledo has the ball, a 15th-ranked offense (+0.262 EPA per play) meets a 132nd-ranked defense (+0.299 allowed); when Ball State has it, a 95th-ranked offense (−0.081) meets a 42nd-ranked defense (−0.077 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Toledo offense is at 51.9% (8th) and the Ball State offense at 42.5% (76th). Toledo scores 36.7 points per game (14th) and allows 31.3 (97th); Ball State scores 10.3 (133rd) and allows 44.3 (134th).
Toledo closed as a 21-point road favorite, with Ball State getting the points at home. The spread opened at Toledo -17.5. The total closed at 52.5, up from 51.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Toledo -1815, Ball State +890) prices Toledo at 90% and Ball State at 10%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Toledo Rockets 39, Ball State Cardinals 24
Toledo Rockets won by 15.
- Against the closing spread (Ball State Cardinals +21): Ball State Cardinals covered.
- Combined score 63 vs the closing total of 52.5: Over.
- Toledo Rockets closed at -1815 on the moneyline (a 90% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Toledo Rockets.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Toledo Rockets 90%, Ball State Cardinals 10%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 6:45 — Ball State Cardinals ball, 2nd & 8 at BALL 42Shotgun #6 K.Luster sacked for loss of 4 yards to the BSU38 (#0 A.Zock), fumble by #6 K.Luster recovered by TOL #0 A.Zock at BSU38, End Of PlayToledo Rockets 84% → 89% (+5 pts) · Drive 3 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 7:58 — Ball State Cardinals ball, 1st & 10 at BALL 12Shotgun K.Luster pass to the left incomplete, ruled intentional grounding. TOL SAFETY, clock 07:58 (Scoring play confirmed). PENALTY BSU Intentional Grounding on…Toledo Rockets 82% → 87% (+6 pts) · Drive 9 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 3:14 — Ball State Cardinals ball, 3rd & 1 at BALL 49Shotgun #6 K.Luster pass complete deep right to #10 J.McDougle caught at TOL15, for 37 yards to the TOL14 (#23 I.Petite), 1ST DOWNBall State Cardinals 15% → 21% (+6 pts) · Drive 11 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 1:54 — Toledo Rockets ball, 2nd & 6 at TOL 20Shotgun #22 C.Miller rush middle for 4 yards gain to the TOL24 (#94 K.Thomas; #27 G.Forsha)Ball State Cardinals 1% → 8% (+7 pts) · Drive 23 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 1:35 — Toledo Rockets ball, 1st & 10 at TOL 32CJ Miller 68 Yd Run (Reice Griffith Kick)Toledo Rockets 93% → >99% (+6 pts) · Drive 23 in Drive X-Ray
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, Toledo Rockets would win 92% of the time (Ball State Cardinals 8%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Toledo Rockets. Here is where that came from.
| Toledo | Points added | Ball State |
|---|---|---|
| -12.4 | Passingdropbacks | -5.4 |
| -10.5 | Rushingdesigned runs | -9.0 |
| +25.4 | Explosive plays6 plays · 5 plays | +18.3 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -1.4 |
| +1.3 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -8.6 |
| +1.8 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +0.4 |
| +6.5 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 4 · 1 of 2 | +1.5 |
| +12.2 | All plays | -4.1 |
The biggest single gap: special teams, worth about 9.9 points to Toledo Rockets. The final margin was 15.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Toledo Rockets closed as the market favourite at 90% and won.
The line moved toward Toledo Rockets before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Toledo -17.5 (-112)
Toledo -21 (-106)
Ball State +774 11%
Ball State +890 10%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts118
- Completion %66.9%66th
- Passing yards1,16135th
- Yards per attempt9.819th
- TD–INT12–1
- Rushing yards233100th
- Season line41 carries, 233 yds, 5 TD
- Receiving yards28651st
- Season line15 catches, 286 yds, 2 TD
- Tackles3432nd
- Attempts86
- Completion %64.0%102nd
- Passing yards438231st
- Yards per attempt5.1234th
- TD–INT3–2
- Rushing yards211129th
- Season line28 carries, 211 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards150267th
- Season line14 catches, 150 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles28100th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 241 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 2, 5:47 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Toledo | Ball State |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateToledo offense vs Ball State defense | 51.2%2nd | 42.7%103rd |
| Early-down success rateBall State offense vs Toledo defense | 36.5%31st | 37.6%92nd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateToledo offense vs Ball State defense | 42.4%52nd | 53.1%130th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateBall State offense vs Toledo defense | 41.5%82nd | 27.6%123rd |
| Explosive play rateToledo offense vs Ball State defense | 9.5%18th | 8.4%106th |
| Explosive play rateBall State offense vs Toledo defense | 5.7%36th | 4.0%123rd |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 56.0%33rd-highest | 54.0%45th-highest |
On 3rd down Toledo converts 42.4% (52nd) against a Ball State defense allowing 53.1% (130th).
On 3rd down Ball State converts 27.6% (123rd) against a Toledo defense allowing 41.5% (82nd).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Toledo | Ball State |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Mike Jacobs | Mike Uremovich |
| Tenureat this school | 1st season | 2nd season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 3–1 | 5–11 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 3–1 | 5–11 |
| Offensive coordinator | Cris Reisert | Mike Uremovich |
| Defensive coordinator | Jahmal Brown | Jeff Knowles |
Staff list as of October 2, 5:43 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 4 times since 2021: Toledo won 4 and Ball State 0.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22, 2025 | Ball State 9, Toledo 38 Toledo won | ||
| Oct 14, 2023 | Toledo 13, Ball State 6 Toledo won | ||
| Nov 8, 2022 | Ball State 21, Toledo 28 Toledo won | ||
| Sep 25, 2021 | Toledo 22, Ball State 12 Toledo won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Toledo Rockets
- Toledo Rockets team stats
- Western Michigan Broncos 38, Toledo Rockets 45 (Oct 24)
- Toledo Rockets 34, Eastern Michigan Eagles 14 (Oct 17)
- Buffalo Bulls 23, Toledo Rockets 8 (Oct 10)
Ball State Cardinals
More NCAAF games on October 3, 2026
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- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 0, Kansas Jayhawks 55 (Oct 3)
- Michigan Wolverines 14, Minnesota Golden Gophers 20 (Oct 3)
- Alabama Crimson Tide 56, Mississippi State Bulldogs 23 (Oct 3)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish 37, North Carolina Tar Heels 26 (Oct 3)
- Boston College Eagles 16, SMU Mustangs 25 (Oct 3)
- Syracuse Orange 42, UConn Huskies 41 (Oct 3)
- Stanford Cardinal 3, Wake Forest Demon Deacons 57 (Oct 3)
- Michigan State Spartans 3, Wisconsin Badgers 31 (Oct 3)
- Vanderbilt Commodores 14, Georgia Bulldogs 38 (Oct 3)
- Western Michigan Broncos 20, Buffalo Bulls 17 (Oct 3)
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