Kentucky Wildcats vs South Carolina Gamecocks Final — October 3, 2026
UKOffense2026 regular season to dateSC
UKDefenseSCUKLast 10 gamesSCRest & travelrest and travel
UKRest & travelSCAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Margin of each of the last 4 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Kentucky (2-1) visited South Carolina (1-2) on Saturday, October 3 at 4:15 PM ET.
Kentucky has the 55th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 64th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, South Carolina has the 37th-ranked offense and the 138th-ranked defense. When Kentucky has the ball, a 55th-ranked offense (+0.057 EPA per play) meets a 138th-ranked defense (+0.363 allowed); when South Carolina has it, a 37th-ranked offense (+0.128) meets a 64th-ranked defense (+0.001 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Kentucky offense is at 46.9% (31st) and the South Carolina offense at 43.6% (63rd). Kentucky scores 31.0 points per game (43rd) and allows 29.0 (77th); South Carolina scores 36.3 (15th) and allows 30.0 (85th).
South Carolina closed as a 2.5-point favorite at home against Kentucky. The spread opened at South Carolina -3.5. The total closed 52.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Kentucky +118, South Carolina -142) prices Kentucky at 44% and South Carolina at 56%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Kentucky Wildcats 35, South Carolina Gamecocks 34
Kentucky Wildcats won by 1.
- Against the closing spread (South Carolina Gamecocks -2.5): Kentucky Wildcats covered.
- Combined score 69 vs the closing total of 52.5: Over.
- Kentucky Wildcats closed at +118 on the moneyline (a 44% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 7 points toward Kentucky Wildcats.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Kentucky Wildcats 44%, South Carolina Gamecocks 56%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q4 14:32 — South Carolina Gamecocks ball, 3rd & 11 at SC 24Shotgun #16 L.Sellers rush right for 74 yards gain to the UKY02 (#14 T.Bryant), 1ST DOWNSouth Carolina Gamecocks 31% → 61% (+30 pts) · Drive 19 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:12 — Kentucky Wildcats ball, 2nd & 10 at SC 39Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass complete short middle to #19 K.Darby caught at USC38, for 2 yards to the USC37 (#17 J.Okoronkwo; #1 G.Kilgore)South Carolina Gamecocks 35% → 56% (+20 pts) · Drive 24 in Drive X-Ray
- OT — Kentucky Wildcats ball, 3rd & 1 at SC 25Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass complete short left to #1 C.Baxter caught at USC20, for 10 yards to the USC15 (#5 K.Daniels Jr.), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNKentucky Wildcats 35% → 100% (+65 pts) · Drive 26 in Drive X-Ray
- OT — Kentucky Wildcats ball, 1st & 10 at SC 25Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass complete short left to #1 C.Baxter caught at USC20, for 10 yards to the USC15 (#5 K.Daniels Jr.), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSouth Carolina Gamecocks 44% → 87% (+43 pts) · Drive 26 in Drive X-Ray
- OT — South Carolina Gamecocks ball, 3rd & 2 at UK 25Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass incomplete short left to #8 N.Harbor thrown to UKY10 QB hurried by #22 G.Godfrey and #90 M.Humphrey-GraceKentucky Wildcats 43% → 74% (+31 pts) · Drive 25 in Drive X-Ray
Kentucky Wildcats won after falling as low as 7% (Q2 5:42).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, Kentucky Wildcats would win 77% of the time (South Carolina Gamecocks 23%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Kentucky Wildcats. Here is where that came from.
| Kentucky | Points added | South Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| -0.5 | Passingdropbacks | +4.7 |
| +0.9 | Rushingdesigned runs | -4.3 |
| +6.5 | Explosive plays3 plays · 3 plays | +8.8 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 2 giveaways | -8.3 |
| +0.5 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +0.7 |
| +0.7 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -1.8 |
| +1.7 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 3 of 4 · 4 of 5 | +3.4 |
| +9.8 | All plays | +3.3 |
The biggest single gap: turnovers, worth about 8.3 points to Kentucky Wildcats. The final margin was 1.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
South Carolina Gamecocks closed as the market favourite at 56% and lost.
The line moved toward Kentucky Wildcats before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Kentucky +3.5 (-100)
Kentucky +2.5 (-107)
South Carolina -193 63%
South Carolina -142 56%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts101
- Completion %68.3%49th
- Passing yards876102nd
- Yards per attempt8.756th
- TD–INT8–1
- Rushing yards32644th
- Season line40 carries, 326 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards226118th
- Season line13 catches, 226 yds, 2 TD
- Tackles3618th
- Attempts116
- Completion %62.1%124th
- Passing yards833122nd
- Yards per attempt7.2136th
- TD–INT6–4
- Rushing yards38420th
- Season line57 carries, 384 yds, 4 TD
- Receiving yards169219th
- Season line11 catches, 169 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles26143rd
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 241 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 2, 5:47 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Kentucky | South Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateKentucky offense vs South Carolina defense | 48.5%8th | 46.8%128th |
| Early-down success rateSouth Carolina offense vs Kentucky defense | 44.6%113th | 39.8%65th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateKentucky offense vs South Carolina defense | 24.1%131st | 41.4%81st |
| 3rd-down conversion rateSouth Carolina offense vs Kentucky defense | 40.5%76th | 35.3%94th |
| Explosive play rateKentucky offense vs South Carolina defense | 9.3%24th | 10.6%133rd |
| Explosive play rateSouth Carolina offense vs Kentucky defense | 6.2%52nd | 8.1%40th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 46.5%90th-highest | 52.0%60th-highest |
On 3rd down Kentucky converts 24.1% (131st) against a South Carolina defense allowing 41.4% (81st).
On 3rd down South Carolina converts 35.3% (94th) against a Kentucky defense allowing 40.5% (76th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Kentucky | South Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Will Stein | Shane Beamer |
| Tenureat this school | 1st season | 6th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 3–1 | 35–32 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 3–1 | 35–32 |
| Offensive coordinator | Joe Sloan | Kendal Briles |
| Defensive coordinator | Jay Bateman | Torrian Gray / Clayton White |
Staff list as of October 2, 5:43 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 5 times since 2021: Kentucky won 1 and South Carolina 4.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 27, 2025 | Kentucky 13, South Carolina 35 South Carolina won | ||
| Sep 7, 2024 | South Carolina 31, Kentucky 6 South Carolina won | ||
| Nov 18, 2023 | Kentucky 14, South Carolina 17 South Carolina won | ||
| Oct 8, 2022 | South Carolina 24, Kentucky 14 South Carolina won | ||
| Sep 25, 2021 | Kentucky 16, South Carolina 10 Kentucky won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Kentucky Wildcats
- Kentucky Wildcats team stats
- Vanderbilt Commodores 17, Kentucky Wildcats 34 (Oct 24)
- Kentucky Wildcats 21, Oklahoma Sooners 13 (Oct 17)
- LSU Tigers 34, Kentucky Wildcats 35 (Oct 10)
South Carolina Gamecocks
More NCAAF games on October 3, 2026
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- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 0, Kansas Jayhawks 55 (Oct 3)
- Michigan Wolverines 14, Minnesota Golden Gophers 20 (Oct 3)
- Alabama Crimson Tide 56, Mississippi State Bulldogs 23 (Oct 3)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish 37, North Carolina Tar Heels 26 (Oct 3)
- Boston College Eagles 16, SMU Mustangs 25 (Oct 3)
- Syracuse Orange 42, UConn Huskies 41 (Oct 3)
- Stanford Cardinal 3, Wake Forest Demon Deacons 57 (Oct 3)
- Michigan State Spartans 3, Wisconsin Badgers 31 (Oct 3)
- Vanderbilt Commodores 14, Georgia Bulldogs 38 (Oct 3)
- Western Michigan Broncos 20, Buffalo Bulls 17 (Oct 3)
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