Bowling Green Falcons vs Miami (OH) RedHawks Final — October 3, 2026
BGSUOffense2026 regular season to dateM-OH
BGSUDefenseM-OHBGSULast 10 gamesM-OHRest & travelrest and travel
BGSURest & travelM-OHAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Margin of each of the last 4 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Bowling Green (0-3) visited Miami (OH) (1-2) on Saturday, October 3 at 3:30 PM ET.
Bowling Green has the 134th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 114th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Miami (OH) has the 30th-ranked offense and the 126th-ranked defense. When Bowling Green has the ball, a 134th-ranked offense (−0.337 EPA per play) meets a 126th-ranked defense (+0.263 allowed); when Miami (OH) has it, a 30th-ranked offense (+0.160) meets a 114th-ranked defense (+0.201 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Bowling Green offense is at 34.0% (133rd) and the Miami (OH) offense at 47.1% (28th). Bowling Green scores 6.7 points per game (138th) and allows 41.7 (130th); Miami (OH) scores 23.0 (79th) and allows 38.3 (123rd).
Miami (OH) closed as a 10.5-point favorite at home against Bowling Green. The spread opened at Miami (OH) -14.5. The total closed at 41.5, down from 46.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Bowling Green +360, Miami (OH) -492) prices Bowling Green at 21% and Miami (OH) at 79%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Bowling Green Falcons 24, Miami (OH) RedHawks 20
Bowling Green Falcons won by 4.
- Against the closing spread (Miami (OH) RedHawks -10.5): Bowling Green Falcons covered.
- Combined score 44 vs the closing total of 41.5: Over.
- Bowling Green Falcons closed at +360 on the moneyline (a 21% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 7 points toward Bowling Green Falcons.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Bowling Green Falcons 21%, Miami (OH) RedHawks 79%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q3 0:57 — Bowling Green Falcons ball, 2nd & 3 at BGSU 32Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short left to #2 N.Amachree caught at BGSU26, for 2 yards loss to the BGSU30 (#1 D.Tatum; #8 C.Young)Bowling Green Falcons 41% → 57% (+16 pts) · Drive 14 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 13:25 — Bowling Green Falcons ball, 3rd & 13 at M-OH 14Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short right to #8 E.Jacon-Duffy caught at MIAMI00, for 14 yards to the MIAMI00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:25, 1ST DOWN #12 T.Kenne…Bowling Green Falcons 50% → 66% (+16 pts) · Drive 14 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 4:17 — Bowling Green Falcons ball, 4th & 12 at M-OH 34#12 T.Kenner field goal attempt from 52 yards NO GOOD (H: #30 R.Kingston, LS: #56 Q.Jimenez), clock 04:17Miami (OH) RedHawks 55% → 70% (+15 pts) · Drive 16 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:17 — Bowling Green Falcons ball, 2nd & 10 at M-OH 14#17 J.Kastantin pass incomplete short right to #0 J.Scoby thrown to MIAMI00 PENALTY MIAMI Pass Interference (#17 B.Minich) 12 yards from MIAMI14 to MIAMI02, 1ST…Bowling Green Falcons 53% → 76% (+24 pts) · Drive 18 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:04 — Miami (OH) RedHawks ball, 2nd & 1 at BGSU 44Shotgun #6 C.Heavner sacked for loss of 7 yards to the MIAMI49 (#5 E.George)Bowling Green Falcons 85% → 100% (+15 pts) · Drive 19 in Drive X-Ray
Bowling Green Falcons won after falling as low as 11% (Q4 2:01).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, Miami (OH) RedHawks would win 55% of the time (Bowling Green Falcons 45%). The chances each team created were close to even.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above had the chances close to even. Here is where each side gained and lost.
| Bowling Green | Points added | Miami (OH) |
|---|---|---|
| -6.0 | Passingdropbacks | +3.1 |
| -4.3 | Rushingdesigned runs | -1.5 |
| +8.5 | Explosive plays2 plays · 3 plays | +5.6 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| -7.2 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +3.7 |
| +6.3 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +0.4 |
| +3.5 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 3 · 1 of 4 | -1.2 |
| +0.9 | All plays | +10.0 |
The biggest single gap: special teams, worth about 10.9 points to Miami (OH) RedHawks. The final margin was 4.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Miami (OH) RedHawks closed as the market favourite at 79% and lost.
The line moved toward Bowling Green Falcons before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Bowling Green +14.5 (-110)
Bowling Green +10.5 (-112)
Miami (OH) -850 86%
Miami (OH) -492 79%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts91
- Completion %63.7%106th
- Passing yards565202nd
- Yards per attempt6.2196th
- TD–INT2–2
- Rushing yards174179th
- Season line55 carries, 174 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving yards154254th
- Season line10 catches, 154 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles397th
- Attempts103
- Completion %63.1%110th
- Passing yards1,12043rd
- Yards per attempt10.95th
- TD–INT7–1
- Rushing yards86366th
- Season line18 carries, 86 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving yards225121st
- Season line11 catches, 225 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles3154th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 241 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 2, 5:47 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Bowling Green | Miami (OH) |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateBowling Green offense vs Miami (OH) defense | 34.9%119th | 37.8%44th |
| Early-down success rateMiami (OH) offense vs Bowling Green defense | 49.5%138th | 43.4%33rd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateBowling Green offense vs Miami (OH) defense | 25.0%130th | 47.2%112th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateMiami (OH) offense vs Bowling Green defense | 44.4%98th | 36.4%92nd |
| Explosive play rateBowling Green offense vs Miami (OH) defense | 1.8%138th | 8.1%103rd |
| Explosive play rateMiami (OH) offense vs Bowling Green defense | 11.6%137th | 11.3%2nd |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 49.6%72nd-highest | 59.3%12th-highest |
On 3rd down Bowling Green converts 25.0% (130th) against a Miami (OH) defense allowing 47.2% (112th).
On 3rd down Miami (OH) converts 36.4% (92nd) against a Bowling Green defense allowing 44.4% (98th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Bowling Green | Miami (OH) |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Eddie George | Chuck Martin |
| Tenureat this school | 2nd season | 13th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 4–12 | 74–76 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 4–12 | 74–76 |
| Offensive coordinator | Greg Nosal | Gus Ragland |
| Defensive coordinator | Joe Bowden | Bill Brechin |
Staff list as of October 2, 5:43 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 4 times since 2021: Bowling Green won 1 and Miami (OH) 3.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2024 | Miami (OH) 28, Bowling Green 12 Miami (OH) won | ||
| Oct 7, 2023 | Bowling Green 0, Miami (OH) 27 Miami (OH) won | ||
| Oct 15, 2022 | Miami (OH) 13, Bowling Green 17 Bowling Green won | ||
| Nov 16, 2021 | Bowling Green 7, Miami (OH) 34 Miami (OH) won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Bowling Green Falcons
- Bowling Green Falcons team stats
- Bowling Green Falcons at Western Michigan Broncos (Oct 31)
- Bowling Green Falcons 24, Buffalo Bulls 31 (Oct 24)
- Ball State Cardinals 32, Bowling Green Falcons 31 (Oct 17)
- Sacramento State Hornets 10, Bowling Green Falcons 38 (Oct 10)
Miami (OH) RedHawks
More NCAAF games on October 3, 2026
- Memphis Tigers 59, Charlotte 49ers 8 (Oct 3)
- Navy Midshipmen 9, Air Force Falcons 14 (Oct 3)
- UCF Knights 17, Houston Cougars 27 (Oct 3)
- West Virginia Mountaineers 42, Iowa State Cyclones 45 (Oct 3)
- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 0, Kansas Jayhawks 55 (Oct 3)
- Michigan Wolverines 14, Minnesota Golden Gophers 20 (Oct 3)
- Alabama Crimson Tide 56, Mississippi State Bulldogs 23 (Oct 3)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish 37, North Carolina Tar Heels 26 (Oct 3)
- Boston College Eagles 16, SMU Mustangs 25 (Oct 3)
- Syracuse Orange 42, UConn Huskies 41 (Oct 3)
- Stanford Cardinal 3, Wake Forest Demon Deacons 57 (Oct 3)
- Michigan State Spartans 3, Wisconsin Badgers 31 (Oct 3)
- Vanderbilt Commodores 14, Georgia Bulldogs 38 (Oct 3)
- Western Michigan Broncos 20, Buffalo Bulls 17 (Oct 3)
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