San Jose State Spartans vs Hawaii Rainbow Warriors Final — October 3, 2026
SJSUOffense2026 regular season to dateHAW
SJSUDefenseHAWSJSULast 10 gamesHAWRest & travelrest and travel
SJSURest & travelHAWAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 4 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
San José State (1-2) visited Hawai'i (1-3) on Saturday, October 3 at 11:59 PM ET.
San José State has the 110th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 65th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Hawai'i has the 79th-ranked offense and the 99th-ranked defense. When San José State has the ball, a 110th-ranked offense (−0.148 EPA per play) meets a 99th-ranked defense (+0.111 allowed); when Hawai'i has it, a 79th-ranked offense (−0.002) meets a 65th-ranked defense (+0.004 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the San José State offense is at 41.2% (87th) and the Hawai'i offense at 40.8% (90th). San José State scores 21.0 points per game (92nd) and allows 29.7 (83rd); Hawai'i scores 18.0 (105th) and allows 26.0 (68th).
Hawai'i is 1-3; its last game was a 27-10 loss to Wyoming.
Hawai'i closed as a 2.5-point favorite at home against San José State. The spread opened at Hawai'i -3.5. The total closed at 51.5, down from 53.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (San José State +119, Hawai'i -142) prices San José State at 44% and Hawai'i at 56%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
San Jose State Spartans 20, Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 16
San Jose State Spartans won by 4.
- Against the closing spread (Hawaii Rainbow Warriors -2.5): San Jose State Spartans covered.
- Combined score 36 vs the closing total of 51.5: Under.
- San Jose State Spartans closed at +119 on the moneyline (a 44% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 4 points toward San Jose State Spartans.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (San Jose State Spartans 44%, Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 56%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q3 4:02 — Hawaii Rainbow Warriors ball, 1st & 10 at HAW 39No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Rice rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Hawaii42 (#4 D.Lee; #90 J.McGlothen)San Jose State Spartans 56% → 75% (+18 pts) · Drive 17 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 3:20 — Hawaii Rainbow Warriors ball, 2nd & 7 at HAW 42No Huddle-Shotgun #12 M.Alejado pass complete deep right to #11 D.Alves caught at SJSU35, for 58 yards to the SJSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:20, 1ST DOWN kick attemp…Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 27% → 47% (+20 pts) · Drive 17 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 0:50 — San Jose State Spartans ball, 2nd & 11 at HAW 11No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Bates rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Hawaii07 (#7 J.Smith)Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 22% → 46% (+24 pts) · Drive 18 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 7:48 — San Jose State Spartans ball, 4th & 5 at HAW 24#36 T.Sinatra field goal attempt from 41 yards NO GOOD (H: #49 T.Carrizosa, LS: #44 D.Aguilera), clock 07:48Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 37% → 54% (+17 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 6:46 — Hawaii Rainbow Warriors ball, 3rd & 13 at HAW 21Shotgun #12 M.Alejado pass intercepted by #32 C.Womack at Hawaii38, End Of PlaySan Jose State Spartans 57% → 72% (+15 pts) · Drive 21 in Drive X-Ray
San Jose State Spartans won after falling as low as 30% (Q1 3:13).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, San Jose State Spartans would win 77% of the time (Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 23%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured San Jose State Spartans. Here is where that came from.
| San José State | Points added | Hawai'i |
|---|---|---|
| +3.6 | Passingdropbacks | -0.5 |
| -4.5 | Rushingdesigned runs | +3.0 |
| +6.9 | Explosive plays3 plays · 4 plays | +14.3 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 2 giveaways | -7.2 |
| +1.4 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +2.9 |
| -2.8 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -10.5 |
| +0.5 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 4 · 0 of 2 | -7.5 |
| +4.9 | All plays | -5.4 |
The biggest single gap: red zone, worth about 8.0 points to San Jose State Spartans. The final margin was 4.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors closed as the market favourite at 56% and lost.
The line moved toward San Jose State Spartans before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
San José State +3.5 (-112)
San José State +2.5 (-105)
Hawai'i -167 60%
Hawai'i -142 56%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts143
- Completion %60.8%144th
- Passing yards1,03263rd
- Yards per attempt7.2132nd
- TD–INT9–5
- Rushing yards41311th
- Season line77 carries, 413 yds
- Receiving yards24097th
- Season line24 catches, 240 yds, 3 TD
- Tackles3524th
- Attempts181
- Completion %60.2%152nd
- Passing yards1,02066th
- Yards per attempt5.6220th
- TD–INT3–1
- Rushing yards24291st
- Season line53 carries, 242 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards208141st
- Season line24 catches, 208 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles3339th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 241 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 2, 5:47 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | San José State | Hawai'i |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateSan José State offense vs Hawai'i defense | 37.8%90th | 41.2%90th |
| Early-down success rateHawai'i offense vs San José State defense | 34.2%12th | 34.4%122nd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateSan José State offense vs Hawai'i defense | 33.3%103rd | 47.1%111th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateHawai'i offense vs San José State defense | 35.0%38th | 38.5%78th |
| Explosive play rateSan José State offense vs Hawai'i defense | 5.2%101st | 7.5%88th |
| Explosive play rateHawai'i offense vs San José State defense | 4.7%19th | 3.8%124th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 57.0%25th-highest | 67.8%2nd-highest |
On 3rd down San José State converts 33.3% (103rd) against a Hawai'i defense allowing 47.1% (111th).
On 3rd down Hawai'i converts 38.5% (78th) against a San José State defense allowing 35.0% (38th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | San José State | Hawai'i |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Ken Niumatalolo | Timmy Chang |
| Tenureat this school | 3rd season | 5th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 12–17 | 23–32 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 121–100 | 23–32 |
| Offensive coordinator | Craig Stutzmann | Anthony Arceneaux |
| Defensive coordinator | Bojay Filimoeatu | Dennis Thurman |
Staff list as of October 2, 5:43 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 4 times since 2021: San José State won 4 and Hawai'i 0.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2025 | Hawai'i 38, San José State 45 San José State won | ||
| Oct 28, 2023 | San José State 35, Hawai'i 0 San José State won | ||
| Nov 26, 2022 | Hawai'i 14, San José State 27 San José State won | ||
| Sep 19, 2021 | San José State 17, Hawai'i 13 San José State won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
San Jose State Spartans
- San Jose State Spartans team stats
- New Mexico Lobos at San Jose State Spartans (Oct 31)
- San Jose State Spartans 13, Nevada Wolf Pack 28 (Oct 24)
- San Jose State Spartans 24, UTEP Miners 11 (Oct 17)
- Wyoming Cowboys 16, San Jose State Spartans 13 (Oct 9)
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
More NCAAF games on October 3, 2026
- Memphis Tigers 59, Charlotte 49ers 8 (Oct 3)
- Navy Midshipmen 9, Air Force Falcons 14 (Oct 3)
- UCF Knights 17, Houston Cougars 27 (Oct 3)
- West Virginia Mountaineers 42, Iowa State Cyclones 45 (Oct 3)
- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 0, Kansas Jayhawks 55 (Oct 3)
- Michigan Wolverines 14, Minnesota Golden Gophers 20 (Oct 3)
- Alabama Crimson Tide 56, Mississippi State Bulldogs 23 (Oct 3)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish 37, North Carolina Tar Heels 26 (Oct 3)
- Boston College Eagles 16, SMU Mustangs 25 (Oct 3)
- Syracuse Orange 42, UConn Huskies 41 (Oct 3)
- Stanford Cardinal 3, Wake Forest Demon Deacons 57 (Oct 3)
- Michigan State Spartans 3, Wisconsin Badgers 31 (Oct 3)
- Vanderbilt Commodores 14, Georgia Bulldogs 38 (Oct 3)
- Western Michigan Broncos 20, Buffalo Bulls 17 (Oct 3)
Dig deeper
Follow the market every day
See every game's current line on the odds board, or check our fully tracked results.
Odds boardTracked results