Old Dominion Monarchs vs Georgia State Panthers Final — October 3, 2026
ODUOffense2026 regular season to dateGAST
ODUDefenseGASTODULast 10 gamesGASTRest & travelrest and travel
ODURest & travelGASTAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Margin of each of the last 4 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Old Dominion (0-3) visited Georgia State (2-1) on Saturday, October 3 at 3:30 PM ET.
Old Dominion has the 137th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 33rd-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Georgia State has the 72nd-ranked offense and the 87th-ranked defense. When Old Dominion has the ball, a 137th-ranked offense (−0.379 EPA per play) meets a 87th-ranked defense (+0.075 allowed); when Georgia State has it, a 72nd-ranked offense (+0.005) meets a 33rd-ranked defense (−0.102 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Old Dominion offense is at 29.5% (136th) and the Georgia State offense at 43.7% (61st). Old Dominion scores 19.3 points per game (98th) and allows 36.7 (119th); Georgia State scores 32.0 (36th) and allows 25.0 (60th).
Georgia State closed as a 1.5-point favorite at home against Old Dominion. The spread opened with Old Dominion favored by 1.5. The total closed 51.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Old Dominion +105, Georgia State -125) prices Old Dominion at 47% and Georgia State at 53%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Old Dominion Monarchs 10, Georgia State Panthers 42
Georgia State Panthers won by 32.
- Against the closing spread (Georgia State Panthers -1.5): Georgia State Panthers covered.
- Combined score 52 vs the closing total of 51.5: Over.
- Georgia State Panthers closed at -125 on the moneyline (a 53% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 3 points toward Georgia State Panthers.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Old Dominion Monarchs 47%, Georgia State Panthers 53%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 14:32 — Georgia State Panthers ball, 2nd & 5 at GAST 30Shotgun #24 Q.Wiggins rush middle for 10 yards gain to the GSU40 fumbled by #24 Q.Wiggins at GSU35 forced by #10 K.Naotala recovered by ODU #32 J.Drummer at GSU4…Old Dominion Monarchs 47% → 57% (+10 pts) · Drive 1 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 7:20 — Georgia State Panthers ball, 3rd & 6 at GAST 47No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Brown pass complete deep middle to #10 D.Riles caught at ODU24, for 37 yards to the ODU16, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNGeorgia State Panthers 44% → 54% (+9 pts) · Drive 5 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 5:40 — Georgia State Panthers ball, 3rd & 3 at ODU 9No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Brown pass complete short right to #0 D.Murray Jr. caught at ODU11, for 9 yards to the ODU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:40, 1ST DOWN #39 S.Layous…Georgia State Panthers 52% → 59% (+7 pts) · Drive 5 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 2:59 — Georgia State Panthers ball, 1st & 10 at GAST 20No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Brown pass complete deep middle to #13 D.Avery Jr. caught at ODU35, for 80 yards to the ODU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:59, 1ST DOWN #39 S.Layou…Georgia State Panthers 63% → 77% (+14 pts) · Drive 7 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 14:34 — Old Dominion Monarchs ball, 1st & 10 at GAST 20No Huddle-Shotgun #10 Q.Henicle sacked for loss of 11 yards to the GSU31 (#1 J.Rhodes-Nelson), fumble by #10 Q.Henicle recovered by ODU #10 Q.Henicle at GSU31, E…Georgia State Panthers 70% → 76% (+5 pts) · Drive 8 in Drive X-Ray
Georgia State Panthers won after falling as low as 37% (Q1 12:32).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, Georgia State Panthers would win >99% of the time (Old Dominion Monarchs <1%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Georgia State Panthers. Here is where that came from.
| Old Dominion | Points added | Georgia State |
|---|---|---|
| +2.9 | Passingdropbacks | -5.9 |
| -11.3 | Rushingdesigned runs | -4.7 |
| +1.9 | Explosive plays1 plays · 5 plays | +14.4 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -5.2 |
| -13.7 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -4.6 |
| +2.5 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +3.8 |
| -7.5 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 0 of 3 · 2 of 3 | +2.7 |
| -25.3 | All plays | +0.5 |
The biggest single gap: explosive plays, worth about 12.5 points to Georgia State Panthers. The final margin was 32.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Georgia State Panthers closed as the market favourite at 53% and won.
The line moved toward Georgia State Panthers before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Old Dominion -1.5 (-107)
Old Dominion +1.5 (-108)
Georgia State -110 50%
Georgia State -125 53%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts53
- Completion %56.6%
- Passing yards418
- Yards per attempt7.9
- TD–INT3–2
- Rushing yards224113th
- Season line45 carries, 224 yds, 4 TD
- Receiving yards153258th
- Season line10 catches, 153 yds, 2 TD
- Tackles3247th
- Attempts111
- Completion %67.6%58th
- Passing yards873103rd
- Yards per attempt7.994th
- TD–INT6–4
- Rushing yards33838th
- Season line59 carries, 338 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards234112th
- Season line16 catches, 234 yds, 4 TD
- Tackles22250th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 241 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 2, 5:47 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Old Dominion | Georgia State |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateOld Dominion offense vs Georgia State defense | 26.0%137th | 47.2%129th |
| Early-down success rateGeorgia State offense vs Old Dominion defense | 34.5%13th | 37.0%96th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateOld Dominion offense vs Georgia State defense | 27.3%124th | 28.1%5th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateGeorgia State offense vs Old Dominion defense | 38.5%59th | 50.0%21st |
| Explosive play rateOld Dominion offense vs Georgia State defense | 7.5%54th | 8.8%112th |
| Explosive play rateGeorgia State offense vs Old Dominion defense | 5.8%37th | 9.7%16th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 53.0%50th-highest | 45.4%98th-highest |
On 3rd down Old Dominion converts 27.3% (124th) against a Georgia State defense allowing 28.1% (5th).
On 3rd down Georgia State converts 50.0% (21st) against a Old Dominion defense allowing 38.5% (59th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Old Dominion | Georgia State |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Ricky Rahne | Dell McGee |
| Tenureat this school | 7th season | 3rd season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 31–35 | 7–21 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 31–35 | 7–21 |
| Offensive coordinator | Kody Cook / Alex Huettel | Hue Jackson |
| Defensive coordinator | Blake Seiler | Cam Clark / John Haneline |
Staff list as of October 2, 5:43 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 4 times since 2021: Old Dominion won 3 and Georgia State 1.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2025 | Georgia State 10, Old Dominion 27 Old Dominion won | ||
| Oct 12, 2024 | Old Dominion 21, Georgia State 14 Old Dominion won | ||
| Nov 25, 2023 | Georgia State 24, Old Dominion 25 Old Dominion won | ||
| Oct 29, 2022 | Old Dominion 17, Georgia State 31 Georgia State won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Old Dominion Monarchs
- Old Dominion Monarchs team stats
- Marshall Thundering Herd at Old Dominion Monarchs (Oct 31)
- Old Dominion Monarchs 0, Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 26 (Oct 24)
- Georgia Southern Eagles 23, Old Dominion Monarchs 15 (Oct 15)
- Old Dominion Monarchs 10, Appalachian State Mountaineers 3 (Oct 10)
Georgia State Panthers
More NCAAF games on October 3, 2026
- Memphis Tigers 59, Charlotte 49ers 8 (Oct 3)
- Navy Midshipmen 9, Air Force Falcons 14 (Oct 3)
- UCF Knights 17, Houston Cougars 27 (Oct 3)
- West Virginia Mountaineers 42, Iowa State Cyclones 45 (Oct 3)
- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 0, Kansas Jayhawks 55 (Oct 3)
- Michigan Wolverines 14, Minnesota Golden Gophers 20 (Oct 3)
- Alabama Crimson Tide 56, Mississippi State Bulldogs 23 (Oct 3)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish 37, North Carolina Tar Heels 26 (Oct 3)
- Boston College Eagles 16, SMU Mustangs 25 (Oct 3)
- Syracuse Orange 42, UConn Huskies 41 (Oct 3)
- Stanford Cardinal 3, Wake Forest Demon Deacons 57 (Oct 3)
- Michigan State Spartans 3, Wisconsin Badgers 31 (Oct 3)
- Vanderbilt Commodores 14, Georgia Bulldogs 38 (Oct 3)
- Western Michigan Broncos 20, Buffalo Bulls 17 (Oct 3)
Dig deeper
Follow the market every day
See every game's current line on the odds board, or check our fully tracked results.
Odds boardTracked results