Army Black Knights vs Louisiana Tech Bulldogs Final — October 3, 2026
ARMYOffense2026 regular season to dateLT
ARMYDefenseLTARMYLast 10 gamesLTRest & travelrest and travel
ARMYRest & travelLTAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Margin of each of the last 3 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Army (1-1) visited Louisiana Tech (0-2) on Saturday, October 3 at 7:30 PM ET.
Army has the 24th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 133rd-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Louisiana Tech has the 138th-ranked offense and the 9th-ranked defense. When Army has the ball, a 24th-ranked offense (+0.188 EPA per play) meets a 9th-ranked defense (−0.225 allowed); when Louisiana Tech has it, a 138th-ranked offense (−0.457) meets a 133rd-ranked defense (+0.311 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Army offense is at 52.2% (6th) and the Louisiana Tech offense at 27.8% (138th). Army scores 22.5 points per game (80th) and allows 22.5 (47th); Louisiana Tech scores 16.5 (114th) and allows 40.5 (129th).
Army closed as a 1.5-point road favorite, with Louisiana Tech getting the points at home. The spread opened at Army -3.5. The total closed at 47.5, up from 45.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Army -111, Louisiana Tech -110) prices Army at 50% and Louisiana Tech at 50%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Army Black Knights 29, Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 31
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs won by 2.
- Against the closing spread (Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +1.5): Louisiana Tech Bulldogs covered.
- Combined score 60 vs the closing total of 47.5: Over.
- Louisiana Tech Bulldogs closed at -110 on the moneyline (a 50% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 11 points toward Louisiana Tech Bulldogs.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Army Black Knights 50%, Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 50%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 8:32 — Louisiana Tech Bulldogs ball, 4th & 2 at ARMY 24Shotgun #23 S.Snider rush middle for 24 yards gain to the AWP00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:32, 1ST DOWN #31 H.Rioux kick attempt good (H: #29 L.Matthews, LS: #69 T.Sims)Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 54% → 64% (+10 pts) · Drive 1 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 4:15 — Louisiana Tech Bulldogs ball, 1st & 10 at LT 28Shotgun #26 D.Brooks rush middle for 72 yards gain to the AWP00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:15, 1ST DOWN #31 H.Rioux kick attempt good (H: #29 L.Matthews, LS: #69 T.Sims)Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 51% → 69% (+18 pts) · Drive 7 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 12:58 — Army Black Knights ball, 2nd & 6 at ARMY 46#27 S.Howard rush right for 54 yards gain to the LAT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:58, 1ST DOWN #95 D.Jones kick attempt good (H: #98 M.Faulk, LS: #55 O.Walter) PENALTY #95 D.Jo…Army Black Knights 31% → 52% (+21 pts) · Drive 10 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 11:47 — Louisiana Tech Bulldogs ball, 1st & 10 at LT 26Dylone Brooks 74 Yd pass from Marcus Calwise Jr. (Trey Kukuk Pass to Jalen Mickens for Two-Point Conversion)Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 48% → 72% (+24 pts) · Drive 11 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 1:06 — Louisiana Tech Bulldogs ball, 2nd & 11 at ARMY 40Kneel down by #5 B.Baker at AWP41 for loss of 1 yardLouisiana Tech Bulldogs 83% → 100% (+17 pts) · Drive 19 in Drive X-Ray
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs won after falling as low as 39% (Q2 11:23).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, Louisiana Tech Bulldogs would win 72% of the time (Army Black Knights 28%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Louisiana Tech Bulldogs. Here is where that came from.
| Army | Points added | Louisiana Tech |
|---|---|---|
| -9.4 | Passingdropbacks | -2.3 |
| -2.5 | Rushingdesigned runs | -2.0 |
| +24.3 | Explosive plays8 plays · 8 plays | +28.9 |
| -2.6 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| -0.4 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +3.2 |
| +1.9 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -3.7 |
| +6.0 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 2 · 1 of 2 | -0.5 |
| +17.4 | All plays | +23.6 |
The biggest single gap: passing, worth about 7.1 points to Louisiana Tech Bulldogs. The final margin was 2.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Army Black Knights closed as the market favourite at 50% and lost.
The line moved toward Louisiana Tech Bulldogs before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Army -3.5 (-110)
Army -1.5 (-102)
Louisiana Tech +143 39%
Louisiana Tech -110 50%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts25
- Completion %64.0%
- Passing yards186
- Yards per attempt7.4
- TD–INT2–0
- Rushing yards24686th
- Season line47 carries, 246 yds, 5 TD
- Receiving yards62642nd
- Season line5 catches, 62 yds
- Tackles21281st
- Attempts51
- Completion %62.7%
- Passing yards283
- Yards per attempt5.5
- TD–INT3–1
- Rushing yards127272nd
- Season line20 carries, 127 yds
- Receiving yards29746th
- Season line13 catches, 297 yds, 2 TD
- Tackles26143rd
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 241 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 2, 5:47 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Army | Louisiana Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateArmy offense vs Louisiana Tech defense | 49.5%6th | 27.4%1st |
| Early-down success rateLouisiana Tech offense vs Army defense | 46.4%126th | 27.2%136th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateArmy offense vs Louisiana Tech defense | 45.5%37th | 50.0%120th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateLouisiana Tech offense vs Army defense | 45.0%104th | 29.2%117th |
| Explosive play rateArmy offense vs Louisiana Tech defense | 4.1%120th | 10.5%131st |
| Explosive play rateLouisiana Tech offense vs Army defense | 9.3%119th | 2.7%136th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 13.8%138th-highest | 56.4%32nd-highest |
On 3rd down Army converts 45.5% (37th) against a Louisiana Tech defense allowing 50.0% (120th).
On 3rd down Louisiana Tech converts 29.2% (117th) against a Army defense allowing 45.0% (104th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Army | Louisiana Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Jeff Monken | Sonny Cumbie |
| Tenureat this school | 13th season | 5th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 91–64 | 20–33 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 91–64 | 22–36 |
| Offensive coordinator | Cody Worley | Nathan Young |
| Defensive coordinator | Daryl Dixon / Scot Sloan | Luke Olson |
Staff list as of October 2, 5:43 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 1 time since 2021: Army won 1 and Louisiana Tech 0.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2024 bowl | Louisiana Tech 6, Army 27 Army won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Army Black Knights
- Army Black Knights team stats
- Army Black Knights at Memphis Tigers (Oct 31)
- Army Black Knights 38, Tulsa Golden Hurricane 35 (Oct 23)
- Florida Atlantic Owls 24, Army Black Knights 56 (Oct 17)
- Tulane Green Wave 17, Army Black Knights 20 (Oct 10)
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
- Louisiana Tech Bulldogs team stats
- Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at South Alabama Jaguars (Oct 31)
- Old Dominion Monarchs 0, Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 26 (Oct 24)
- Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 24, UL Monroe Warhawks 0 (Oct 17)
- Louisiana Ragin Cajuns 31, Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 32 (Oct 10)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on October 3, 2026
- Memphis Tigers 59, Charlotte 49ers 8 (Oct 3)
- Navy Midshipmen 9, Air Force Falcons 14 (Oct 3)
- UCF Knights 17, Houston Cougars 27 (Oct 3)
- West Virginia Mountaineers 42, Iowa State Cyclones 45 (Oct 3)
- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 0, Kansas Jayhawks 55 (Oct 3)
- Michigan Wolverines 14, Minnesota Golden Gophers 20 (Oct 3)
- Alabama Crimson Tide 56, Mississippi State Bulldogs 23 (Oct 3)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish 37, North Carolina Tar Heels 26 (Oct 3)
- Boston College Eagles 16, SMU Mustangs 25 (Oct 3)
- Syracuse Orange 42, UConn Huskies 41 (Oct 3)
- Stanford Cardinal 3, Wake Forest Demon Deacons 57 (Oct 3)
- Michigan State Spartans 3, Wisconsin Badgers 31 (Oct 3)
- Vanderbilt Commodores 14, Georgia Bulldogs 38 (Oct 3)
- Western Michigan Broncos 20, Buffalo Bulls 17 (Oct 3)
Dig deeper
Follow the market every day
See every game's current line on the odds board, or check our fully tracked results.
Odds boardTracked results