Miami Hurricanes vs Clemson Tigers Final — October 3, 2026
MIAOffense2026 regular season to dateCLEM
MIADefenseCLEMMIALast 10 gamesCLEMRest & travelrest and travel
MIARest & travelCLEMAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 4 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Miami (3-0) visited Clemson (3-1) on Saturday, October 3 at 7:30 PM ET.
Miami has the 2nd-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 26th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Clemson has the 119th-ranked offense and the 10th-ranked defense. When Miami has the ball, a 2nd-ranked offense (+0.447 EPA per play) meets a 10th-ranked defense (−0.224 allowed); when Clemson has it, a 119th-ranked offense (−0.184) meets a 26th-ranked defense (−0.127 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Miami offense is at 57.6% (1st) and the Clemson offense at 40.4% (98th). Miami scores 43.3 points per game (7th) and allows 9.7 (3rd); Clemson scores 21.0 (92nd) and allows 22.0 (45th).
Clemson is 3-1 and 2-2 against the spread; its last game was a 24-10 win over California.
Miami closed as a 14.5-point road favorite, with Clemson getting the points at home. The spread opened at Miami -18.5. The total closed at 48.5, down from 51.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Miami -700, Clemson +500) prices Miami at 84% and Clemson at 16%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Miami Hurricanes 41, Clemson Tigers 13
Miami Hurricanes won by 28.
- Against the closing spread (Clemson Tigers +14.5): Miami Hurricanes covered.
- Combined score 54 vs the closing total of 48.5: Over.
- Miami Hurricanes closed at -700 on the moneyline (a 84% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 6 points toward Clemson Tigers.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Miami Hurricanes 84%, Clemson Tigers 16%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, Miami Hurricanes would win >99% of the time (Clemson Tigers <1%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Miami Hurricanes. Here is where that came from.
| Miami | Points added | Clemson |
|---|---|---|
| +5.2 | Passingdropbacks | +5.8 |
| -4.8 | Rushingdesigned runs | -5.3 |
| +12.4 | Explosive plays4 plays · 3 plays | +10.9 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 2 giveaways | -10.5 |
| +2.0 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +0.6 |
| +0.5 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -0.9 |
| +2.5 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 3 · 1 of 3 | -2.8 |
| +17.7 | All plays | -2.2 |
The biggest single gap: turnovers, worth about 10.5 points to Miami Hurricanes. The final margin was 28.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Miami Hurricanes closed as the market favourite at 84% and won.
The line moved toward Clemson Tigers before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Miami -18.5 (-109)
Miami -14.5 (-105)
Clemson +824 10%
Clemson +500 16%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts106
- Completion %88.7%1st
- Passing yards1,21122nd
- Yards per attempt11.44th
- TD–INT14–0
- Rushing yards230101st
- Season line36 carries, 230 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards5643rd
- Season line34 catches, 564 yds, 6 TD
- Tackles17487th
- Attempts83
- Completion %63.9%103rd
- Passing yards523215th
- Yards per attempt6.3187th
- TD–INT1–2
- Rushing yards34632nd
- Season line59 carries, 346 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards196159th
- Season line21 catches, 196 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles3524th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 241 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 2, 5:47 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Miami | Clemson |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateMiami offense vs Clemson defense | 49.6%5th | 39.8%74th |
| Early-down success rateClemson offense vs Miami defense | 37.4%38th | 39.4%76th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateMiami offense vs Clemson defense | 56.0%5th | 32.0%24th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateClemson offense vs Miami defense | 30.8%15th | 29.2%117th |
| Explosive play rateMiami offense vs Clemson defense | 9.4%20th | 3.3%3rd |
| Explosive play rateClemson offense vs Miami defense | 6.7%70th | 6.6%78th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 55.0%38th-highest | 47.3%86th-highest |
On 3rd down Miami converts 56.0% (5th) against a Clemson defense allowing 32.0% (24th).
On 3rd down Clemson converts 29.2% (117th) against a Miami defense allowing 30.8% (15th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Miami | Clemson |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Mario Cristobal | Dabo Swinney |
| Tenureat this school | 5th season | 18th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 39–19 | 189–54 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 101–79 | 189–54 |
| Offensive coordinator | Shannon Dawson | Chad Morris |
| Defensive coordinator | Corey Hetherman | Tom Allen |
Staff list as of October 2, 5:43 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 2 times since 2021: Miami won 1 and Clemson 1.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2023 | Clemson 20, Miami 28 Miami won | ||
| Nov 19, 2022 | Miami 10, Clemson 40 Clemson won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Miami Hurricanes
- Miami Hurricanes team stats
- Miami Hurricanes at North Carolina Tar Heels (Oct 31)
- Pittsburgh Panthers 23, Miami Hurricanes 52 (Oct 24)
- Florida State Seminoles 35, Miami Hurricanes 43 (Oct 17)
Clemson Tigers
More NCAAF games on October 3, 2026
- Memphis Tigers 59, Charlotte 49ers 8 (Oct 3)
- Navy Midshipmen 9, Air Force Falcons 14 (Oct 3)
- UCF Knights 17, Houston Cougars 27 (Oct 3)
- West Virginia Mountaineers 42, Iowa State Cyclones 45 (Oct 3)
- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 0, Kansas Jayhawks 55 (Oct 3)
- Michigan Wolverines 14, Minnesota Golden Gophers 20 (Oct 3)
- Alabama Crimson Tide 56, Mississippi State Bulldogs 23 (Oct 3)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish 37, North Carolina Tar Heels 26 (Oct 3)
- Boston College Eagles 16, SMU Mustangs 25 (Oct 3)
- Syracuse Orange 42, UConn Huskies 41 (Oct 3)
- Stanford Cardinal 3, Wake Forest Demon Deacons 57 (Oct 3)
- Michigan State Spartans 3, Wisconsin Badgers 31 (Oct 3)
- Vanderbilt Commodores 14, Georgia Bulldogs 38 (Oct 3)
- Western Michigan Broncos 20, Buffalo Bulls 17 (Oct 3)
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