LSU Tigers vs Kentucky Wildcats Final — October 10, 2026
LSUOffense2026 regular season to dateUK
LSUDefenseUKLSURecent formUKLSUHome and roadseason to dateUKLSULast 10 gamesUKRest & travelrest and travel
LSURest & travelUKAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 5 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
LSU (3-1) visited Kentucky (3-1) on Saturday, October 10 at 7:00 PM ET.
LSU has the 101st-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 1st-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Kentucky has the 67th-ranked offense and the 62nd-ranked defense. When LSU has the ball, a 101st-ranked offense (−0.039 EPA per play) meets a 62nd-ranked defense (+0.043 allowed); when Kentucky has it, a 67th-ranked offense (+0.075) meets a 1st-ranked defense (−0.333 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the LSU offense is at 48.6% (51st) and the Kentucky offense at 49.3% (43rd). LSU scores 38.8 points per game (12th) and allows 15.5 (14th); Kentucky scores 32.0 (40th) and allows 30.2 (92nd).
LSU is 4-1; its last game was a 63-14 win over McNeese. Kentucky is 4-1 and 4-1 against the spread; its last game was a 35-34 win over South Carolina.
LSU closed as a 9.5-point road favorite, with Kentucky getting the points at home. The spread closed where it opened. The total closed at 50.5, down from 52.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (LSU -360, Kentucky +280) prices LSU at 75% and Kentucky at 25%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
LSU Tigers 34, Kentucky Wildcats 35
Kentucky Wildcats won by 1.
- Against the closing spread (Kentucky Wildcats +9.5): Kentucky Wildcats covered.
- Combined score 69 vs the closing total of 50.5: Over.
- Kentucky Wildcats closed at +280 on the moneyline (a 25% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Kentucky Wildcats.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (LSU Tigers 75%, Kentucky Wildcats 25%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q4 4:11 — LSU Tigers ball, 2nd & 6 at LSU 28No Huddle-Shotgun #10 S.Leavitt sacked for loss of 15 yards to the LSU13 (#7 J.Harkless), fumble by #10 S.Leavitt recovered by UK #94 T.Gadson at LSU13, End Of P…Kentucky Wildcats 20% → 57% (+37 pts) · Drive 17 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 3:11 — Kentucky Wildcats ball, 4th & 5 at LSU 8#88 A.Zouagui field goal attempt from 26 yards NO GOOD (H: #93 W.Berry, LS: #47 S.Radnoti), clock 03:11LSU Tigers 59% → 82% (+23 pts) · Drive 18 in Drive X-Ray
- OT — Kentucky Wildcats ball, 2nd & 1 at LSU 25Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass incomplete short right to #7 D.Miller thrown to LSU09 broken up by #5 D.PickettKentucky Wildcats 45% → 100% (+55 pts) · Drive 23 in Drive X-Ray
- OT — LSU Tigers ball, 1st & 10 at UK 25Shotgun #10 S.Leavitt pass complete short right to #4 J.Harris caught at UK21, for 10 yards to the UK15 (#12 H.Sykes), 1ST DOWNLSU Tigers 59% → 88% (+28 pts) · Drive 22 in Drive X-Ray
- OT — Kentucky Wildcats ball, 3rd & 8 at LSU 25Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass incomplete short right to #7 D.Miller thrown to LSU09 broken up by #5 D.PickettKentucky Wildcats 23% → 46% (+24 pts) · Drive 23 in Drive X-Ray
Kentucky Wildcats won after falling as low as 14% (Q4 1:55).
Game DNA
| LSU | Points added | Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| +12.9 | Passingdropbacks | +2.0 |
| +2.1 | Rushingdesigned runs | -3.4 |
| +8.3 | Explosive plays3 plays · 3 plays | +8.4 |
| -5.2 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| -4.7 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -5.4 |
| -5.4 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +0.7 |
| -1.3 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 3 of 5 · 3 of 8 | -4.8 |
| +6.7 | All plays | -2.4 |
The biggest single gap: passing, worth about 10.9 points to LSU Tigers. The final margin was 1.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
LSU Tigers closed as the market favourite at 75% and lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
LSU -9.5 (-110)
LSU -9.5 (-110)
Kentucky +292 24%
Kentucky +280 25%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts139
- Completion %66.2%64th
- Passing yards1,22065th
- Yards per attempt8.849th
- TD–INT8–7
- Rushing yards42629th
- Season line94 carries, 426 yds, 5 TD
- Receiving yards35446th
- Season line23 catches, 354 yds, 2 TD
- Tackles28224th
- Attempts142
- Completion %68.3%42nd
- Passing yards1,14881st
- Yards per attempt8.187th
- TD–INT11–1
- Rushing yards36147th
- Season line68 carries, 361 yds, 6 TD
- Receiving yards32265th
- Season line25 catches, 322 yds, 3 TD
- Tackles4227th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 256 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 7, 5:35 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | LSU | Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateLSU offense vs Kentucky defense | 44.3%51st | 47.0%109th |
| Early-down success rateKentucky offense vs LSU defense | 34.9%5th | 49.5%14th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateLSU offense vs Kentucky defense | 51.2%13th | 44.2%105th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateKentucky offense vs LSU defense | 32.6%22nd | 25.6%128th |
| Explosive play rateLSU offense vs Kentucky defense | 8.2%39th | 5.7%36th |
| Explosive play rateKentucky offense vs LSU defense | 6.3%54th | 7.6%45th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 46.4%97th-highest | 49.6%79th-highest |
On 3rd down LSU converts 51.2% (13th) against a Kentucky defense allowing 44.2% (105th).
On 3rd down Kentucky converts 25.6% (128th) against a LSU defense allowing 32.6% (22nd).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | LSU | Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Lane Kiffin | Will Stein |
| Tenureat this school | 1st season | 1st season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 4–1 | 4–1 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 120–53 | 4–1 |
| Offensive coordinator | Charlie Weis Jr. | Joe Sloan |
| Defensive coordinator | Blake Baker | Jay Bateman |
Staff list as of October 6, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 1 time since 2021: LSU won 0 and Kentucky 1.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2021 | LSU 21, Kentucky 42 Kentucky won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
LSU Tigers
- LSU Tigers team stats
- LSU Tigers 38, Auburn Tigers 17 (Oct 24)
- Mississippi State Bulldogs 0, LSU Tigers 31 (Oct 17)
- McNeese State Cowboys 14, LSU Tigers 63 (Oct 3)
Kentucky Wildcats
More NCAAF games on October 10, 2026
- Tulane Green Wave 17, Army Black Knights 20 (Oct 10)
- Sacramento State Hornets 10, Bowling Green Falcons 38 (Oct 10)
- Texas A&M Aggies 6, Missouri Tigers 27 (Oct 10)
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons 38, NC State Wolfpack 14 (Oct 10)
- Indiana Hoosiers 20, Nebraska Cornhuskers 17 (Oct 10)
- UCF Knights 28, Oklahoma State Cowboys 42 (Oct 10)
- North Carolina Tar Heels 21, Pittsburgh Panthers 17 (Oct 10)
- Arizona Wildcats 52, West Virginia Mountaineers 31 (Oct 10)
- Ball State Cardinals 14, Northwestern Wildcats 45 (Oct 10)
- South Carolina Gamecocks 38, Florida Gators 19 (Oct 10)
- Old Dominion Monarchs 10, Appalachian State Mountaineers 3 (Oct 10)
- Rice Owls 12, East Carolina Pirates 28 (Oct 10)
- Miami (OH) RedHawks 20, UMass Minutemen 19 (Oct 10)
- Eastern Michigan Eagles 25, Akron Zips 23 (Oct 10)
Dig deeper
Follow the market every day
See every game's current line on the odds board, or check our fully tracked results.
Odds boardTracked results