Kentucky Wildcats vs Oklahoma Sooners Final — October 17, 2026
UKOffense2026 regular season to dateOU
UKDefenseOUUKRecent formOUUKHome and roadseason to dateOUUKLast 10 gamesOURest & travelrest and travel
UKRest & travelOUAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 6 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Kentucky (4-1) visited Oklahoma (3-2) on Saturday, October 17 at 7:30 PM ET.
Kentucky has the 67th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 81st-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Oklahoma has the 130th-ranked offense and the 10th-ranked defense. When Kentucky has the ball, a 67th-ranked offense (+0.068 EPA per play) meets a 10th-ranked defense (−0.143 allowed); when Oklahoma has it, a 130th-ranked offense (−0.174) meets a 81st-ranked defense (+0.089 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Kentucky offense is at 48.9% (48th) and the Oklahoma offense at 40.7% (125th). Kentucky scores 32.6 points per game (33rd) and allows 31.0 (105th); Oklahoma scores 23.0 (85th) and allows 17.6 (23rd).
Kentucky is 5-1 and 5-1 against the spread; its last game was a 35-34 win over LSU. Oklahoma is 3-2 and 2-3 against the spread; its last game was a 27-24 win over Texas.
Oklahoma closed as a 6.5-point favorite at home against Kentucky. The spread closed where it opened. The total closed at 43.5, up from 42.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Kentucky +220, Oklahoma -275) prices Kentucky at 30% and Oklahoma at 70%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Kentucky Wildcats 21, Oklahoma Sooners 13
Kentucky Wildcats won by 8.
- Against the closing spread (Oklahoma Sooners -6.5): Kentucky Wildcats covered.
- Combined score 34 vs the closing total of 43.5: Under.
- Kentucky Wildcats closed at +220 on the moneyline (a 30% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Oklahoma Sooners.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Kentucky Wildcats 30%, Oklahoma Sooners 70%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q2 5:17 — Kentucky Wildcats ball, 2nd & 9 at UK 47No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass incomplete deep right thrown to OU10 PENALTY UK Intentional Grounding (#3 K.Minchey) 6 yards from UK47 to UK41Oklahoma Sooners 52% → 75% (+23 pts) · Drive 5 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 4:24 — Kentucky Wildcats ball, 4th & 4 at OU 48#93 W.Berry punt 48 yards to the OU00, Touchback PENALTY OU Holding (#16 D.Okoye) 10 yards from OU20 to OU10Kentucky Wildcats 24% → 42% (+18 pts) · Drive 5 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 0:35 — Oklahoma Sooners ball, 1st & 10 at UK 38No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass intercepted by #14 T.Bryant at UK13 broken up by #90 M.Humphrey-Grace #14 T.Bryant return 43 yards to the OU44 (#52 N.Best)Kentucky Wildcats 10% → 24% (+14 pts) · Drive 12 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 6:04 — Kentucky Wildcats ball, 4th & 3 at OU 5Shotgun #3 K.Minchey sacked for loss of 8 yards to the OU13 (#98 J.Kreul), TURNOVER ON DOWNSOklahoma Sooners 34% → 58% (+23 pts) · Drive 15 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 1:17 — Oklahoma Sooners ball, 3rd & 8 at OU 32Jordan Castell 41 Yd Interception Return (Adam Zouagui Kick)Kentucky Wildcats 53% → 95% (+42 pts) · Drive 18 in Drive X-Ray
Kentucky Wildcats won after falling as low as 10% (Q3 0:35).
Game DNA
| Kentucky | Points added | Oklahoma |
|---|---|---|
| +1.6 | Passingdropbacks | -8.6 |
| -5.3 | Rushingdesigned runs | -0.6 |
| +0.0 | Explosive plays0 plays · 5 plays | +7.5 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 4 giveaways | -18.0 |
| -1.5 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -0.1 |
| +0.7 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -1.2 |
| -3.4 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 3 · 1 of 3 | -0.4 |
| -7.9 | All plays | -21.4 |
The biggest single gap: turnovers, worth about 18.0 points to Kentucky Wildcats. The final margin was 8.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Oklahoma Sooners closed as the market favourite at 70% and lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Kentucky +6.5 (-108)
Kentucky +6.5 (+101)
Oklahoma -275 69%
Oklahoma -275 70%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts178
- Completion %67.4%49th
- Passing yards1,39467th
- Yards per attempt7.892nd
- TD–INT11–1
- Rushing yards48434th
- Season line87 carries, 484 yds, 8 TD
- Receiving yards40147th
- Season line29 catches, 401 yds, 3 TD
- Tackles5316th
- Attempts135
- Completion %66.7%57th
- Passing yards1,038143rd
- Yards per attempt7.7106th
- TD–INT8–4
- Rushing yards236186th
- Season line52 carries, 236 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving yards33197th
- Season line25 catches, 331 yds, 2 TD
- Tackles37148th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 259 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 14, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Kentucky | Oklahoma |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateKentucky offense vs Oklahoma defense | 48.2%18th | 39.3%25th |
| Early-down success rateOklahoma offense vs Kentucky defense | 48.1%120th | 36.0%130th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateKentucky offense vs Oklahoma defense | 27.6%129th | 25.5%2nd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateOklahoma offense vs Kentucky defense | 46.2%108th | 35.3%97th |
| Explosive play rateKentucky offense vs Oklahoma defense | 7.2%55th | 5.7%37th |
| Explosive play rateOklahoma offense vs Kentucky defense | 5.4%28th | 7.2%56th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 50.6%71st-highest | 52.2%58th-highest |
On 3rd down Kentucky converts 27.6% (129th) against a Oklahoma defense allowing 25.5% (2nd).
On 3rd down Oklahoma converts 35.3% (97th) against a Kentucky defense allowing 46.2% (108th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Kentucky | Oklahoma |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Will Stein | Brent Venables |
| Tenureat this school | 1st season | 5th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 5–1 | 35–22 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 5–1 | 35–22 |
| Offensive coordinator | Joe Sloan | Ben Arbuckle |
| Defensive coordinator | Jay Bateman | Todd Bates |
Staff list as of October 13, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Teams
Kentucky Wildcats
- Kentucky Wildcats team stats
- Vanderbilt Commodores 17, Kentucky Wildcats 34 (Oct 24)
- LSU Tigers 34, Kentucky Wildcats 35 (Oct 10)
- Kentucky Wildcats 35, South Carolina Gamecocks 34 (Oct 3)
Oklahoma Sooners
More NCAAF games on October 17, 2026
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- Ball State Cardinals 32, Bowling Green Falcons 31 (Oct 17)
- Charleston Southern Buccaneers 0, Clemson Tigers 37 (Oct 17)
- Ohio State Buckeyes 19, Indiana Hoosiers 15 (Oct 17)
- Georgia State Panthers 22, James Madison Dukes 49 (Oct 17)
- Kansas Jayhawks 24, Kansas State Wildcats 35 (Oct 17)
- Mississippi State Bulldogs 0, LSU Tigers 31 (Oct 17)
- Northwestern Wildcats 24, Michigan State Spartans 21 (Oct 17)
- Virginia Cavaliers 13, SMU Mustangs 23 (Oct 17)
- Florida Gators 27, Texas Longhorns 24 (Oct 17)
- Cincinnati Bearcats 42, West Virginia Mountaineers 45 (Oct 17)
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights 37, Maryland Terrapins 30 (Oct 17)
- UMass Minutemen 18, Buffalo Bulls 25 (Oct 17)
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