Boise State Broncos vs Fresno State Bulldogs Final — October 10, 2026
BOISOffense2026 regular season to dateFRES
BOISDefenseFRESBOISRecent formFRESBOISHome and roadseason to dateFRESBOISLast 10 gamesFRESRest & travelrest and travel
BOISRest & travelFRESAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 5 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Boise State (3-1) visited Fresno State (4-1) on Saturday, October 10 at 10:30 PM ET.
Boise State has the 22nd-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 106th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Fresno State has the 56th-ranked offense and the 22nd-ranked defense. When Boise State has the ball, a 22nd-ranked offense (+0.235 EPA per play) meets a 22nd-ranked defense (−0.086 allowed); when Fresno State has it, a 56th-ranked offense (+0.104) meets a 106th-ranked defense (+0.177 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Boise State offense is at 48.7% (49th) and the Fresno State offense at 46.8% (68th). Boise State scores 33.5 points per game (29th) and allows 19.8 (34th); Fresno State scores 27.8 (58th) and allows 16.4 (22nd).
Boise State is 4-1 and 3-2 against the spread; its last game was a 37-18 win over Utah State. Fresno State is 4-1 and 4-1 against the spread; its last game was a 26-6 win over Washington State.
Boise State closed as a 8.5-point road favorite, with Fresno State getting the points at home. The spread opened at Boise State -10. The total closed 48.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Boise State -330, Fresno State +250) prices Boise State at 73% and Fresno State at 27%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Boise State Broncos 38, Fresno State Bulldogs 31
Boise State Broncos won by 7.
- Against the closing spread (Fresno State Bulldogs +8.5): Fresno State Bulldogs covered.
- Combined score 69 vs the closing total of 48.5: Over.
- Boise State Broncos closed at -330 on the moneyline (a 73% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 3 points toward Fresno State Bulldogs.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Boise State Broncos 73%, Fresno State Bulldogs 27%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 10:58 — Fresno State Bulldogs ball, 3rd & 8 at BOIS 8Shotgun #7 J.Mandal rush middle for 8 yards gain to the BOIS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:58 #38 M.Watanabe kick attempt good (H: #41 N.Verdugo, LS: #53 J.Baldi)Fresno State Bulldogs 33% → 40% (+7 pts) · Drive 1 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 10:10 — Boise State Broncos ball, 2nd & 7 at BOIS 28#0 D.Riley rush middle for 72 yards gain to the FRES00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:10, 1ST DOWN #15 Z.Martinez rush attempt SuccessfulBoise State Broncos 59% → 74% (+16 pts) · Drive 2 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 1:12 — Boise State Broncos ball, 3rd & 7 at FRES 22Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #85 T.Favors caught at FRES25, for 22 yards to the FRES00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:12, 1ST DOWN #48 C.Moore kick atte…Boise State Broncos 81% → 87% (+6 pts) · Drive 4 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 0:45 — Fresno State Bulldogs ball, 2nd & 10 at FRES 41Shotgun #3 K.Martin pass complete short left to #0 E.Avit caught at FRES45, for 59 yards to the BOIS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:45, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is und…Fresno State Bulldogs 14% → 21% (+7 pts) · Drive 5 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 0:56 — Fresno State Bulldogs ball, 1st & 10 at BOIS 10Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short middle to #0 E.Avit caught at BOIS00, for 10 yards to the BOIS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:56, 1ST DOWN #38 M.Watanabe kick attempt goo…Fresno State Bulldogs 17% → 23% (+6 pts) · Drive 9 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| Boise State | Points added | Fresno State |
|---|---|---|
| +4.8 | Passingdropbacks | -2.6 |
| +3.7 | Rushingdesigned runs | -2.1 |
| +17.2 | Explosive plays3 plays · 4 plays | +13.4 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| +4.5 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +3.0 |
| -5.5 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +8.1 |
| +2.4 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 2 · 3 of 3 | +9.7 |
| +27.1 | All plays | +29.5 |
The biggest single gap: penalties, worth about 13.6 points to Fresno State Bulldogs. The final margin was 7.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Boise State Broncos closed as the market favourite at 73% and won.
The line moved toward Fresno State Bulldogs before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Boise State -10 (-105)
Boise State -8.5 (-110)
Fresno State +290 25%
Fresno State +250 27%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts132
- Completion %65.9%69th
- Passing yards1,058100th
- Yards per attempt8.091st
- TD–INT11–0
- Rushing yards6851st
- Season line108 carries, 685 yds, 5 TD
- Receiving yards35944th
- Season line23 catches, 359 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles29192nd
- Attempts137
- Completion %66.4%62nd
- Passing yards1,034108th
- Yards per attempt7.5121st
- TD–INT6–1
- Rushing yards286101st
- Season line42 carries, 286 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving yards32265th
- Season line25 catches, 322 yds, 2 TD
- Tackles3941st
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 256 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 7, 5:35 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Boise State | Fresno State |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateBoise State offense vs Fresno State defense | 43.8%62nd | 40.6%38th |
| Early-down success rateFresno State offense vs Boise State defense | 40.1%30th | 40.7%98th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateBoise State offense vs Fresno State defense | 49.1%24th | 33.3%26th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateFresno State offense vs Boise State defense | 25.0%1st | 38.6%82nd |
| Explosive play rateBoise State offense vs Fresno State defense | 7.1%59th | 6.3%55th |
| Explosive play rateFresno State offense vs Boise State defense | 11.1%136th | 7.2%58th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 40.3%124th-highest | 48.9%86th-highest |
On 3rd down Boise State converts 49.1% (24th) against a Fresno State defense allowing 33.3% (26th).
On 3rd down Fresno State converts 38.6% (82nd) against a Boise State defense allowing 25.0% (1st).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Boise State | Fresno State |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Spencer Danielson | Matt Entz |
| Tenureat this school | 4th season | 2nd season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 28–9 | 13–5 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 28–9 | 13–5 |
| Offensive coordinator | Nate Potter | Josh Davis |
| Defensive coordinator | Erik Chinander | Nick Benedetto |
Staff list as of October 6, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 5 times since 2021: Boise State won 2 and Fresno State 3.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2025 | Fresno State 30, Boise State 7 Fresno State won | ||
| Nov 4, 2023 | Boise State 30, Fresno State 37 Fresno State won | ||
| Dec 3, 2022 | Fresno State 28, Boise State 16 Fresno State won | ||
| Oct 8, 2022 | Fresno State 20, Boise State 40 Boise State won | ||
| Nov 6, 2021 | Boise State 40, Fresno State 14 Boise State won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Boise State Broncos
- Boise State Broncos team stats
- Texas State Bobcats at Boise State Broncos (Oct 31)
- Boise State Broncos 31, Washington State Cougars 10 (Oct 24)
- Utah State Aggies 18, Boise State Broncos 37 (Oct 3)
Fresno State Bulldogs
- Fresno State Bulldogs team stats
- Oregon State Beavers at Fresno State Bulldogs (Oct 31)
- Fresno State Bulldogs 23, San Diego State Aztecs 26 (Oct 17)
- Fresno State Bulldogs 26, Washington State Cougars 6 (Oct 3)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on October 10, 2026
- Tulane Green Wave 17, Army Black Knights 20 (Oct 10)
- Sacramento State Hornets 10, Bowling Green Falcons 38 (Oct 10)
- Texas A&M Aggies 6, Missouri Tigers 27 (Oct 10)
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons 38, NC State Wolfpack 14 (Oct 10)
- Indiana Hoosiers 20, Nebraska Cornhuskers 17 (Oct 10)
- UCF Knights 28, Oklahoma State Cowboys 42 (Oct 10)
- North Carolina Tar Heels 21, Pittsburgh Panthers 17 (Oct 10)
- Arizona Wildcats 52, West Virginia Mountaineers 31 (Oct 10)
- Ball State Cardinals 14, Northwestern Wildcats 45 (Oct 10)
- South Carolina Gamecocks 38, Florida Gators 19 (Oct 10)
- Old Dominion Monarchs 10, Appalachian State Mountaineers 3 (Oct 10)
- Rice Owls 12, East Carolina Pirates 28 (Oct 10)
- Miami (OH) RedHawks 20, UMass Minutemen 19 (Oct 10)
- Eastern Michigan Eagles 25, Akron Zips 23 (Oct 10)
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