Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs California Golden Bears Final — October 17, 2026
WAKEOffense2026 regular season to dateCAL
WAKEDefenseCALWAKERecent formCALWAKEHome and roadseason to dateCALWAKELast 10 gamesCALRest & travelrest and travel
WAKERest & travelCALAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 6 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Wake Forest (5-1) visited California (2-3) on Saturday, October 17 at 10:30 PM ET.
Wake Forest has the 10th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 47th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, California has the 115th-ranked offense and the 65th-ranked defense. When Wake Forest has the ball, a 10th-ranked offense (+0.281 EPA per play) meets a 65th-ranked defense (+0.046 allowed); when California has it, a 115th-ranked offense (−0.076) meets a 47th-ranked defense (−0.007 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Wake Forest offense is at 51.8% (21st) and the California offense at 42.4% (112th). Wake Forest scores 36.8 points per game (17th) and allows 21.5 (40th); California scores 22.2 (92nd) and allows 29.2 (95th).
Wake Forest is 5-1 and 4-2 against the spread; its last game was a 38-14 win over NC State. California is 3-3 and 2-4 against the spread; its last game was a 25-20 win over Virginia Tech.
Wake Forest closed as a 10.5-point road favorite, with California getting the points at home. The spread opened at Wake Forest -8.5. The total closed 54.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Wake Forest -437, California +325) prices Wake Forest at 78% and California at 22%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Wake Forest Demon Deacons 41, California Golden Bears 7
Wake Forest Demon Deacons won by 34.
- Against the closing spread (California Golden Bears +10.5): Wake Forest Demon Deacons covered.
- Combined score 48 vs the closing total of 54.5: Under.
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons closed at -437 on the moneyline (a 78% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 4 points toward Wake Forest Demon Deacons.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Wake Forest Demon Deacons 78%, California Golden Bears 22%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Game DNA
| Wake Forest | Points added | California |
|---|---|---|
| -5.8 | Passingdropbacks | +1.1 |
| +2.4 | Rushingdesigned runs | -1.3 |
| +14.7 | Explosive plays7 plays · 1 plays | +2.3 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| +1.9 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -3.5 |
| +3.6 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +1.9 |
| +1.1 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 2 · 0 of 2 | -4.9 |
| +17.9 | All plays | -4.4 |
The biggest single gap: explosive plays, worth about 12.4 points to Wake Forest Demon Deacons. The final margin was 34.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Wake Forest Demon Deacons closed as the market favourite at 78% and won.
The line moved toward Wake Forest Demon Deacons before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Wake Forest -8.5 (-111)
Wake Forest -10.5 (-105)
California +265 26%
California +325 22%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts165
- Completion %68.5%
- Passing yards1,474
- Yards per attempt8.9
- TD–INT11–1
- Rushing yards281140th
- Season line55 carries, 281 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards7203rd
- Season line49 catches, 720 yds, 4 TD
- Tackles4462nd
- Attempts164
- Completion %65.2%78th
- Passing yards1,180104th
- Yards per attempt7.2138th
- TD–INT8–5
- Rushing yards33690th
- Season line73 carries, 336 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards39653rd
- Season line28 catches, 396 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles33224th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 259 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 14, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Wake Forest | California |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateWake Forest offense vs California defense | 46.0%34th | 39.0%21st |
| Early-down success rateCalifornia offense vs Wake Forest defense | 43.1%68th | 40.8%98th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateWake Forest offense vs California defense | 48.4%23rd | 42.0%83rd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateCalifornia offense vs Wake Forest defense | 41.2%78th | 38.8%83rd |
| Explosive play rateWake Forest offense vs California defense | 7.2%57th | 10.2%133rd |
| Explosive play rateCalifornia offense vs Wake Forest defense | 4.2%9th | 6.5%77th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 53.8%42nd-highest | 62.0%3rd-highest |
On 3rd down Wake Forest converts 48.4% (23rd) against a California defense allowing 42.0% (83rd).
On 3rd down California converts 38.8% (83rd) against a Wake Forest defense allowing 41.2% (78th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Wake Forest | California |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Jake Dickert | Tosh Lupoi |
| Tenureat this school | 2nd season | 1st season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 14–5 | 3–3 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 37–25 | 3–3 |
| Offensive coordinator | Rob Ezell | Jordan Somerville |
| Defensive coordinator | Scottie Hazelton | Da'Von Brown / Michael Hutchings |
Staff list as of October 13, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 1 time since 2021: Wake Forest won 0 and California 1.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2024 | California 46, Wake Forest 36 California won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons team stats
- Virginia Cavaliers at Wake Forest Demon Deacons (Oct 31)
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons 38, NC State Wolfpack 14 (Oct 10)
- Stanford Cardinal 3, Wake Forest Demon Deacons 57 (Oct 3)
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons 30, Louisville Cardinals 27 (Sep 26)
California Golden Bears
More NCAAF games on October 17, 2026
- Florida Atlantic Owls 24, Army Black Knights 56 (Oct 17)
- Pittsburgh Panthers 21, Boston College Eagles 27 (Oct 17)
- Ball State Cardinals 32, Bowling Green Falcons 31 (Oct 17)
- Charleston Southern Buccaneers 0, Clemson Tigers 37 (Oct 17)
- Ohio State Buckeyes 19, Indiana Hoosiers 15 (Oct 17)
- Georgia State Panthers 22, James Madison Dukes 49 (Oct 17)
- Kansas Jayhawks 24, Kansas State Wildcats 35 (Oct 17)
- Mississippi State Bulldogs 0, LSU Tigers 31 (Oct 17)
- Northwestern Wildcats 24, Michigan State Spartans 21 (Oct 17)
- Virginia Cavaliers 13, SMU Mustangs 23 (Oct 17)
- Florida Gators 27, Texas Longhorns 24 (Oct 17)
- Cincinnati Bearcats 42, West Virginia Mountaineers 45 (Oct 17)
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights 37, Maryland Terrapins 30 (Oct 17)
- UMass Minutemen 18, Buffalo Bulls 25 (Oct 17)
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