Florida Gators vs Missouri Tigers Final — October 3, 2026
FLAOffense2026 regular season to dateMIZ
FLADefenseMIZFLALast 10 gamesMIZRest & travelrest and travel
FLARest & travelMIZAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Margin of each of the last 4 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Florida (3-0) visited Missouri (2-1) on Saturday, October 3 at 3:30 PM ET.
Florida has the 4th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 95th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Missouri has the 78th-ranked offense and the 35th-ranked defense. When Florida has the ball, a 4th-ranked offense (+0.408 EPA per play) meets a 35th-ranked defense (−0.096 allowed); when Missouri has it, a 78th-ranked offense (−0.002) meets a 95th-ranked defense (+0.106 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Florida offense is at 49.4% (14th) and the Missouri offense at 39.7% (109th). Florida scores 54.0 points per game (1st) and allows 29.3 (81st); Missouri scores 29.7 (53rd) and allows 23.0 (48th).
Florida closed as a 5.5-point road favorite, with Missouri getting the points at home. The spread closed where it opened. The total closed at 57.5, up from 56.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Florida -220, Missouri +180) prices Florida at 66% and Missouri at 34%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Florida Gators 17, Missouri Tigers 45
Missouri Tigers won by 28.
- Against the closing spread (Missouri Tigers +5.5): Missouri Tigers covered.
- Combined score 62 vs the closing total of 57.5: Over.
- Missouri Tigers closed at +180 on the moneyline (a 34% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Florida Gators.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Florida Gators 66%, Missouri Tigers 34%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q2 10:06 — Missouri Tigers ball, 1st & 10 at FLA 47No Huddle-Shotgun #13 A.Simmons pass complete deep middle to #1 D.Olugbode caught at Gators17, for 47 yards to the Gators00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:06, 1ST DOWN #19…Missouri Tigers 46% → 58% (+12 pts) · Drive 6 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 8:37 — Florida Gators ball, 4th & 1 at FLA 34No Huddle #12 A.Philo rush middle for 0 yards to the Gators34 (#6 J.Beasley), TURNOVER ON DOWNSMissouri Tigers 61% → 70% (+9 pts) · Drive 7 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 4:26 — Florida Gators ball, 3rd & 5 at MIZ 12No Huddle #12 A.Philo pass complete short middle to #6 D.Wilson caught at Mizzou00, for 12 yards to the Mizzou00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:26, 1ST DOWN #91 P.Durkin ki…Florida Gators 49% → 59% (+10 pts) · Drive 9 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 2:05 — Missouri Tigers ball, 2nd & 11 at FLA 31No Huddle-Shotgun #13 A.Simmons pass complete deep right to #2 C.Goodie Sr. caught at Gators00, for 31 yards to the Gators00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:05, 1ST DOWN #19…Missouri Tigers 47% → 61% (+14 pts) · Drive 10 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 13:38 — Missouri Tigers ball, 3rd & 7 at MIZ 28No Huddle-Shotgun #13 A.Simmons pass complete short middle to #2 C.Goodie Sr. caught at Mizzou46, for 36 yards to the Gators36 QB hurried by #91 J.McCloud (#43 A…Missouri Tigers 72% → 81% (+9 pts) · Drive 13 in Drive X-Ray
Missouri Tigers won after falling as low as 24% (Q1 9:20).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, Missouri Tigers would win 97% of the time (Florida Gators 3%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Missouri Tigers. Here is where that came from.
| Florida | Points added | Missouri |
|---|---|---|
| -8.2 | Passingdropbacks | +0.3 |
| -4.3 | Rushingdesigned runs | -7.6 |
| +14.2 | Explosive plays4 plays · 8 plays | +28.3 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| +0.6 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +1.3 |
| -1.1 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -1.5 |
| +2.2 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 2 · 2 of 3 | -0.1 |
| +3.2 | All plays | +20.7 |
The biggest single gap: explosive plays, worth about 14.2 points to Missouri Tigers. The final margin was 28.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Florida Gators closed as the market favourite at 66% and lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Florida -5.5 (-110)
Florida -5.5 (-110)
Missouri +174 35%
Missouri +180 34%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts87
- Completion %72.4%15th
- Passing yards91787th
- Yards per attempt10.59th
- TD–INT7–2
- Rushing yards6002nd
- Season line83 carries, 600 yds, 11 TD
- Receiving yards27167th
- Season line17 catches, 271 yds, 2 TD
- Tackles28100th
- Attempts106
- Completion %65.1%91st
- Passing yards93083rd
- Yards per attempt8.849th
- TD–INT11–0
- Rushing yards39518th
- Season line89 carries, 395 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards4129th
- Season line27 catches, 412 yds, 4 TD
- Tackles397th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 241 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 2, 5:47 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Florida | Missouri |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateFlorida offense vs Missouri defense | 43.0%36th | 35.3%17th |
| Early-down success rateMissouri offense vs Florida defense | 39.4%67th | 35.4%116th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateFlorida offense vs Missouri defense | 48.4%26th | 37.0%53rd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateMissouri offense vs Florida defense | 50.0%120th | 37.2%85th |
| Explosive play rateFlorida offense vs Missouri defense | 10.2%8th | 6.2%53rd |
| Explosive play rateMissouri offense vs Florida defense | 5.6%35th | 7.9%44th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 34.4%132nd-highest | 47.9%81st-highest |
On 3rd down Florida converts 48.4% (26th) against a Missouri defense allowing 37.0% (53rd).
On 3rd down Missouri converts 37.2% (85th) against a Florida defense allowing 50.0% (120th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Florida | Missouri |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Jon Sumrall | Eli Drinkwitz |
| Tenureat this school | 1st season | 7th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 4–0 | 49–30 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 47–12 | 61–31 |
| Offensive coordinator | Buster Faulkner | Chip Lindsey |
| Defensive coordinator | Brad White | Corey Batoon / Derek Nicholson |
Staff list as of October 2, 5:43 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 3 times since 2021: Florida won 1 and Missouri 2.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 18, 2023 | Florida 31, Missouri 33 Missouri won | ||
| Oct 8, 2022 | Missouri 17, Florida 24 Florida won | ||
| Nov 20, 2021 | Florida 23, Missouri 24 Missouri won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Florida Gators
- Florida Gators team stats
- Florida Gators at Georgia Bulldogs (Oct 31)
- Florida Gators 27, Texas Longhorns 24 (Oct 17)
- South Carolina Gamecocks 38, Florida Gators 19 (Oct 10)
- Ole Miss Rebels 28, Florida Gators 52 (Sep 26)
Missouri Tigers
- Missouri Tigers team stats
- Missouri Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks (Oct 31)
- Missouri Tigers 3, Ole Miss Rebels 31 (Oct 17)
- Texas A&M Aggies 6, Missouri Tigers 27 (Oct 10)
- Missouri Tigers 24, Mississippi State Bulldogs 31 (Sep 26)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on October 3, 2026
- Memphis Tigers 59, Charlotte 49ers 8 (Oct 3)
- Navy Midshipmen 9, Air Force Falcons 14 (Oct 3)
- UCF Knights 17, Houston Cougars 27 (Oct 3)
- West Virginia Mountaineers 42, Iowa State Cyclones 45 (Oct 3)
- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 0, Kansas Jayhawks 55 (Oct 3)
- Michigan Wolverines 14, Minnesota Golden Gophers 20 (Oct 3)
- Alabama Crimson Tide 56, Mississippi State Bulldogs 23 (Oct 3)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish 37, North Carolina Tar Heels 26 (Oct 3)
- Boston College Eagles 16, SMU Mustangs 25 (Oct 3)
- Syracuse Orange 42, UConn Huskies 41 (Oct 3)
- Stanford Cardinal 3, Wake Forest Demon Deacons 57 (Oct 3)
- Michigan State Spartans 3, Wisconsin Badgers 31 (Oct 3)
- Vanderbilt Commodores 14, Georgia Bulldogs 38 (Oct 3)
- Western Michigan Broncos 20, Buffalo Bulls 17 (Oct 3)
Dig deeper
Follow the market every day
See every game's current line on the odds board, or check our fully tracked results.
Odds boardTracked results