Missouri Tigers vs Ole Miss Rebels Final — October 17, 2026
MIZOffense2026 regular season to dateMISS
MIZDefenseMISSMIZRecent formMISSMIZHome and roadseason to dateMISSMIZLast 10 gamesMISSRest & travelrest and travel
MIZRest & travelMISSAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 6 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Missouri (4-1) visited Ole Miss (4-1) on Saturday, October 17 at 3:30 PM ET.
Missouri has the 64th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 12th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Ole Miss has the 13th-ranked offense and the 99th-ranked defense. When Missouri has the ball, a 64th-ranked offense (+0.073 EPA per play) meets a 99th-ranked defense (+0.142 allowed); when Ole Miss has it, a 13th-ranked offense (+0.274) meets a 12th-ranked defense (−0.127 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Missouri offense is at 41.8% (121st) and the Ole Miss offense at 54.4% (7th). Missouri scores 32.2 points per game (37th) and allows 18.4 (28th); Ole Miss scores 38.8 (11th) and allows 28.0 (81st).
Missouri is 5-1 and 3-3 against the spread; its last game was a 27-6 win over Texas A&M. Ole Miss is 4-1; its last game was a 52-17 win over Vanderbilt.
Ole Miss closed as a 4.5-point favorite at home against Missouri. The spread opened at Ole Miss -6.5. The total closed at 57.5, down from 58.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Missouri +155, Ole Miss -185) prices Missouri at 38% and Ole Miss at 62%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Missouri Tigers 3, Ole Miss Rebels 31
Ole Miss Rebels won by 28.
- Against the closing spread (Ole Miss Rebels -4.5): Ole Miss Rebels covered.
- Combined score 34 vs the closing total of 57.5: Under.
- Ole Miss Rebels closed at -185 on the moneyline (a 62% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 4 points toward Missouri Tigers.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Missouri Tigers 38%, Ole Miss Rebels 62%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 9:59 — Missouri Tigers ball, 3rd & 4 at MISS 32Shotgun #13 A.Simmons pass complete short middle to #2 C.Goodie Sr. caught at OM20, for 22 yards to the OM10 (#7 S.Denson), 1ST DOWNMissouri Tigers 47% → 53% (+6 pts) · Drive 2 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 6:00 — Ole Miss Rebels ball, 3rd & 6 at MIZ 32No Huddle-Shotgun #25 M.Frazier rush left for 22 yards gain to the MIZ10 (#4 T.Greco), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNOle Miss Rebels 57% → 63% (+6 pts) · Drive 3 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 10:13 — Ole Miss Rebels ball, 3rd & 10 at MIZ 21Shotgun #6 T.Chambliss pass complete short left to #11 H.Fields caught at MIZ02, for 21 yards to the MIZ00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:13, 1ST DOWN #17 L.Carneiro kick a…Ole Miss Rebels 76% → 84% (+8 pts) · Drive 7 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 8:36 — Missouri Tigers ball, 3rd & 13 at MIZ 39No Huddle-Shotgun #13 A.Simmons pass complete short middle to #19 C.Lee caught at MIZ49, for 43 yards to the OM18 (#8 A.Kite), 1ST DOWNMissouri Tigers 14% → 22% (+8 pts) · Drive 8 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 5:44 — Missouri Tigers ball, 4th & 5 at MISS 5#19 B.Craig field goal attempt from 23 yards NO GOOD (H: #40 B.Reus, LS: #49 B.Le Blanc), clock 05:44Ole Miss Rebels 81% → 87% (+6 pts) · Drive 8 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| Missouri | Points added | Ole Miss |
|---|---|---|
| -7.7 | Passingdropbacks | +4.3 |
| -6.0 | Rushingdesigned runs | +11.1 |
| +10.3 | Explosive plays5 plays · 6 plays | +10.1 |
| -1.0 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -6.0 |
| +0.4 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +3.5 |
| -3.9 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -1.6 |
| -3.4 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 0 of 3 · 3 of 4 | +5.8 |
| -11.3 | All plays | +27.1 |
The biggest single gap: rushing, worth about 17.2 points to Ole Miss Rebels. The final margin was 28.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Ole Miss Rebels closed as the market favourite at 62% and won.
The line moved toward Missouri Tigers before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Missouri +6.5 (-110)
Missouri +4.5 (-114)
Ole Miss -230 67%
Ole Miss -185 62%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts164
- Completion %64.6%84th
- Passing yards1,41761st
- Yards per attempt8.649th
- TD–INT14–1
- Rushing yards8282nd
- Season line147 carries, 828 yds, 8 TD
- Receiving yards6165th
- Season line42 catches, 616 yds, 5 TD
- Tackles631st
- Attempts174
- Completion %70.1%20th
- Passing yards1,43554th
- Yards per attempt8.268th
- TD–INT11–4
- Rushing yards230196th
- Season line46 carries, 230 yds, 5 TD
- Receiving yards50317th
- Season line32 catches, 503 yds, 5 TD
- Tackles34209th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 259 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 14, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Missouri | Ole Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateMissouri offense vs Ole Miss defense | 37.9%126th | 42.4%56th |
| Early-down success rateOle Miss offense vs Missouri defense | 35.4%5th | 50.6%9th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateMissouri offense vs Ole Miss defense | 42.6%57th | 47.5%115th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateOle Miss offense vs Missouri defense | 36.0%44th | 46.0%33rd |
| Explosive play rateMissouri offense vs Ole Miss defense | 8.3%33rd | 8.5%118th |
| Explosive play rateOle Miss offense vs Missouri defense | 5.4%27th | 6.2%85th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 47.5%91st-highest | 58.0%13th-highest |
On 3rd down Missouri converts 42.6% (57th) against a Ole Miss defense allowing 47.5% (115th).
On 3rd down Ole Miss converts 46.0% (33rd) against a Missouri defense allowing 36.0% (44th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Missouri | Ole Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Eli Drinkwitz | Pete Golding |
| Tenureat this school | 7th season | 2nd season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 51–30 | 6–2 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 63–31 | 6–2 |
| Offensive coordinator | Chip Lindsey | John David Baker |
| Defensive coordinator | Corey Batoon / Derek Nicholson | Bryan Brown |
Staff list as of October 13, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Teams
Missouri Tigers
- Missouri Tigers team stats
- Missouri Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks (Oct 31)
- Texas A&M Aggies 6, Missouri Tigers 27 (Oct 10)
- Florida Gators 17, Missouri Tigers 45 (Oct 3)
- Missouri Tigers 24, Mississippi State Bulldogs 31 (Sep 26)
Ole Miss Rebels
- Ole Miss Rebels team stats
- Auburn Tigers at Ole Miss Rebels (Oct 31)
- Ole Miss Rebels 27, Texas Longhorns 34 (Oct 24)
- Ole Miss Rebels 52, Vanderbilt Commodores 17 (Oct 10)
- Ole Miss Rebels 28, Florida Gators 52 (Sep 26)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on October 17, 2026
- Florida Atlantic Owls 24, Army Black Knights 56 (Oct 17)
- Pittsburgh Panthers 21, Boston College Eagles 27 (Oct 17)
- Ball State Cardinals 32, Bowling Green Falcons 31 (Oct 17)
- Charleston Southern Buccaneers 0, Clemson Tigers 37 (Oct 17)
- Ohio State Buckeyes 19, Indiana Hoosiers 15 (Oct 17)
- Georgia State Panthers 22, James Madison Dukes 49 (Oct 17)
- Kansas Jayhawks 24, Kansas State Wildcats 35 (Oct 17)
- Mississippi State Bulldogs 0, LSU Tigers 31 (Oct 17)
- Northwestern Wildcats 24, Michigan State Spartans 21 (Oct 17)
- Virginia Cavaliers 13, SMU Mustangs 23 (Oct 17)
- Florida Gators 27, Texas Longhorns 24 (Oct 17)
- Cincinnati Bearcats 42, West Virginia Mountaineers 45 (Oct 17)
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights 37, Maryland Terrapins 30 (Oct 17)
- UMass Minutemen 18, Buffalo Bulls 25 (Oct 17)
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