Texas A&M Aggies vs Missouri Tigers Final — October 10, 2026
TA&MOffense2026 regular season to dateMIZ
TA&MDefenseMIZTA&MRecent formMIZTA&MHome and roadseason to dateMIZTA&MLast 10 gamesMIZRest & travelrest and travel
TA&MRest & travelMIZAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 5 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Texas A&M (3-2) visited Missouri (3-1) on Saturday, October 10 at 12:00 PM ET.
Texas A&M has the 103rd-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 18th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Missouri has the 38th-ranked offense and the 37th-ranked defense. When Texas A&M has the ball, a 103rd-ranked offense (−0.042 EPA per play) meets a 37th-ranked defense (−0.039 allowed); when Missouri has it, a 38th-ranked offense (+0.152) meets a 18th-ranked defense (−0.108 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Texas A&M offense is at 45.0% (87th) and the Missouri offense at 42.3% (112th). Texas A&M scores 31.8 points per game (44th) and allows 18.6 (30th); Missouri scores 33.5 (29th) and allows 21.5 (42nd).
Texas A&M is 3-2 and 3-2 against the spread; its last game was a 34-7 win over Arkansas. Missouri is 4-1 and 2-3 against the spread; its last game was a 45-17 win over Florida.
Missouri closed as a 4.5-point favorite at home against Texas A&M. The spread opened at Missouri -3. The total closed 50.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Texas A&M +164, Missouri -200) prices Texas A&M at 36% and Missouri at 64%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Texas A&M Aggies 6, Missouri Tigers 27
Missouri Tigers won by 21.
- Against the closing spread (Missouri Tigers -4.5): Missouri Tigers covered.
- Combined score 33 vs the closing total of 50.5: Under.
- Missouri Tigers closed at -200 on the moneyline (a 64% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 7 points toward Missouri Tigers.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Texas A&M Aggies 36%, Missouri Tigers 64%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 9:53 — Missouri Tigers ball, 3rd & 3 at MIZ 27No Huddle-Shotgun #13 A.Simmons pass intercepted by #27 D.Sanford at Mizzou27 broken up by #18 T.Searcy #27 D.Sanford return 13 yards to the Mizzou14 (#19 C.Lee)Texas A&M Aggies 34% → 46% (+12 pts) · Drive 2 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 8:19 — Texas A&M Aggies ball, 3rd & 2 at MIZ 6No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass intercepted by #22 E.Dotson at Mizzou00 broken up by #4 T.Greco, TouchbackMissouri Tigers 55% → 67% (+13 pts) · Drive 3 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 12:58 — Missouri Tigers ball, 3rd & 4 at TA&M 32Cayden Lee 32 Yd pass from Austin Simmons (Blake Craig Kick)Texas A&M Aggies 38% → 61% (+23 pts) · Drive 8 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 10:02 — Texas A&M Aggies ball, 1st & 10 at TA&M 25No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass intercepted by #4 T.Greco at A&M36 #4 T.Greco return 2 yards to the A&M34, End Of PlayMissouri Tigers 33% → 45% (+12 pts) · Drive 11 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 8:40 — Missouri Tigers ball, 4th & 8 at TA&M 32Blake Craig 50 Yd Field GoalMissouri Tigers 39% → 80% (+41 pts) · Drive 12 in Drive X-Ray
Missouri Tigers won after falling as low as 33% (Q2 10:02).
Game DNA
| Texas A&M | Points added | Missouri |
|---|---|---|
| -3.1 | Passingdropbacks | -13.0 |
| -12.1 | Rushingdesigned runs | -7.9 |
| +1.4 | Explosive plays1 plays · 3 plays | +12.7 |
| -12.7 | Turnovers2 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -5.5 |
| +5.9 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +6.3 |
| -4.6 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +2.5 |
| -2.6 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 0 of 3 · 1 of 1 | +0.5 |
| -27.8 | All plays | -4.4 |
The biggest single gap: explosive plays, worth about 11.4 points to Missouri Tigers. The final margin was 21.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Missouri Tigers closed as the market favourite at 64% and won.
The line moved toward Missouri Tigers before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Texas A&M +3 (-112)
Texas A&M +4.5 (-112)
Missouri -143 56%
Missouri -200 64%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts149
- Completion %57.0%198th
- Passing yards908132nd
- Yards per attempt6.1215th
- TD–INT6–4
- Rushing yards29194th
- Season line70 carries, 291 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving yards248135th
- Season line17 catches, 248 yds, 3 TD
- Tackles26268th
- Attempts136
- Completion %67.6%49th
- Passing yards1,27056th
- Yards per attempt9.325th
- TD–INT13–0
- Rushing yards6066th
- Season line113 carries, 606 yds, 6 TD
- Receiving yards5229th
- Season line35 catches, 522 yds, 4 TD
- Tackles502nd
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 256 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 7, 5:35 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Texas A&M | Missouri |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateTexas A&M offense vs Missouri defense | 41.3%94th | 35.1%7th |
| Early-down success rateMissouri offense vs Texas A&M defense | 45.5%99th | 38.8%114th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateTexas A&M offense vs Missouri defense | 42.6%57th | 37.9%57th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateMissouri offense vs Texas A&M defense | 30.0%9th | 42.3%62nd |
| Explosive play rateTexas A&M offense vs Missouri defense | 4.0%128th | 5.9%43rd |
| Explosive play rateMissouri offense vs Texas A&M defense | 10.0%130th | 9.1%18th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 49.5%80th-highest | 49.8%78th-highest |
On 3rd down Texas A&M converts 42.6% (57th) against a Missouri defense allowing 37.9% (57th).
On 3rd down Missouri converts 42.3% (62nd) against a Texas A&M defense allowing 30.0% (9th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Texas A&M | Missouri |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Mike Elko | Eli Drinkwitz |
| Tenureat this school | 3rd season | 7th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 22–9 | 50–30 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 38–18 | 62–31 |
| Offensive coordinator | Holmon Wiggins | Chip Lindsey |
| Defensive coordinator | Lyle Hemphill / Elijah Robinson | Corey Batoon / Derek Nicholson |
Staff list as of October 6, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 3 times since 2021: Texas A&M won 3 and Missouri 0.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | Texas A&M 38, Missouri 17 Texas A&M won | ||
| Oct 5, 2024 | Missouri 10, Texas A&M 41 Texas A&M won | ||
| Oct 16, 2021 | Texas A&M 35, Missouri 14 Texas A&M won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Texas A&M Aggies
- Texas A&M Aggies team stats
- Texas A&M Aggies 20, Alabama Crimson Tide 31 (Oct 24)
- Citadel Bulldogs 0, Texas A&M Aggies 41 (Oct 17)
- Arkansas Razorbacks 7, Texas A&M Aggies 34 (Oct 3)
Missouri Tigers
- Missouri Tigers team stats
- Missouri Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks (Oct 31)
- Missouri Tigers 3, Ole Miss Rebels 31 (Oct 17)
- Florida Gators 17, Missouri Tigers 45 (Oct 3)
- Missouri Tigers 24, Mississippi State Bulldogs 31 (Sep 26)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on October 10, 2026
- Tulane Green Wave 17, Army Black Knights 20 (Oct 10)
- Sacramento State Hornets 10, Bowling Green Falcons 38 (Oct 10)
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons 38, NC State Wolfpack 14 (Oct 10)
- Indiana Hoosiers 20, Nebraska Cornhuskers 17 (Oct 10)
- UCF Knights 28, Oklahoma State Cowboys 42 (Oct 10)
- North Carolina Tar Heels 21, Pittsburgh Panthers 17 (Oct 10)
- Arizona Wildcats 52, West Virginia Mountaineers 31 (Oct 10)
- Ball State Cardinals 14, Northwestern Wildcats 45 (Oct 10)
- South Carolina Gamecocks 38, Florida Gators 19 (Oct 10)
- Old Dominion Monarchs 10, Appalachian State Mountaineers 3 (Oct 10)
- Rice Owls 12, East Carolina Pirates 28 (Oct 10)
- Miami (OH) RedHawks 20, UMass Minutemen 19 (Oct 10)
- Eastern Michigan Eagles 25, Akron Zips 23 (Oct 10)
- Virginia Tech Hokies 20, California Golden Bears 25 (Oct 10)
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