Washington Huskies vs USC Trojans Final — October 3, 2026
WASHOffense2026 regular season to dateUSC
WASHDefenseUSCWASHLast 10 gamesUSCRest & travelrest and travel
WASHRest & travelUSCAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 5 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Washington (2-1) visited USC (4-1) on Saturday, October 3 at 7:30 PM ET.
Washington has the 108th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 13th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, USC has the 16th-ranked offense and the 97th-ranked defense. When Washington has the ball, a 108th-ranked offense (−0.143 EPA per play) meets a 97th-ranked defense (+0.109 allowed); when USC has it, a 16th-ranked offense (+0.248) meets a 13th-ranked defense (−0.194 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Washington offense is at 36.1% (131st) and the USC offense at 46.2% (35th). Washington scores 21.3 points per game (90th) and allows 17.0 (26th); USC scores 39.8 (10th) and allows 26.4 (71st).
USC is 4-1 and 1-4 against the spread; its last game was a 41-27 loss to Oregon.
USC closed as a 7.5-point favorite at home against Washington. The spread opened at USC -9. The total closed at 57.5, up from 54.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Washington +245, USC -315) prices Washington at 28% and USC at 72%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Washington Huskies 21, USC Trojans 25
USC Trojans won by 4.
- Against the closing spread (USC Trojans -7.5): Washington Huskies covered.
- Combined score 46 vs the closing total of 57.5: Under.
- USC Trojans closed at -315 on the moneyline (a 72% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 2 points toward Washington Huskies.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Washington Huskies 28%, USC Trojans 72%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q3 13:30 — Washington Huskies ball, 1st & 10 at USC 42Shotgun #1 D.Williams Jr. pass complete short right to #86 D.DeGraaf caught at USC36, for 42 yards to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:30, 1ST DOWN #95 T.Robles kic…Washington Huskies 55% → 69% (+13 pts) · Drive 15 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 14:49 — USC Trojans ball, 1st & 10 at USC 32Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #27 R.Wormley caught at USC27, for 13 yards to the USC45 (#2 R.Clark), 1ST DOWNUSC Trojans 47% → 64% (+17 pts) · Drive 19 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 2:02 — Washington Huskies ball, 4th & 2 at WASH 27Shotgun #1 D.Williams Jr. pass complete deep left to #8 C.Lawson caught at USC40, for 43 yards to the USC30 (#6 C.Pierce), 1ST DOWNWashington Huskies 12% → 33% (+21 pts) · Drive 22 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 1:17 — Washington Huskies ball, 4th & 3 at USC 23Shotgun #1 D.Williams Jr. pass complete short right to #2 D.Roebuck caught at USC19, for 5 yards to the USC18, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNWashington Huskies 23% → 40% (+17 pts) · Drive 22 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:47 — Washington Huskies ball, 3rd & 4 at USC 12Shotgun #1 D.Williams Jr. sacked for loss of 6 yards to the USC18 (#1 K.Crawford)USC Trojans 63% → 79% (+16 pts) · Drive 22 in Drive X-Ray
USC Trojans won after falling as low as 26% (Q3 12:12).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, Washington Huskies would win 53% of the time (USC Trojans 47%). The chances each team created were close to even.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above had the chances close to even. Here is where each side gained and lost.
| Washington | Points added | USC |
|---|---|---|
| -11.1 | Passingdropbacks | -9.5 |
| +4.5 | Rushingdesigned runs | -0.3 |
| +3.6 | Explosive plays1 plays · 4 plays | +11.8 |
| -7.3 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -4.4 |
| +4.5 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +2.2 |
| +0.3 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +2.5 |
| +2.0 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 3 · 2 of 4 | -2.5 |
| -3.4 | All plays | -0.2 |
The biggest single gap: explosive plays, worth about 8.2 points to USC Trojans. The final margin was 4.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
USC Trojans closed as the market favourite at 72% and won.
The line moved toward Washington Huskies before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Washington +9 (-109)
Washington +7.5 (-116)
USC -375 75%
USC -315 72%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts137
- Completion %69.3%39th
- Passing yards1,12940th
- Yards per attempt8.276th
- TD–INT7–3
- Rushing yards165191st
- Season line40 carries, 165 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving yards30839th
- Season line30 catches, 308 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles24186th
- Attempts157
- Completion %70.1%34th
- Passing yards1,4992nd
- Yards per attempt9.624th
- TD–INT14–2
- Rushing yards41212th
- Season line77 carries, 412 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards37217th
- Season line25 catches, 372 yds, 3 TD
- Tackles27121st
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 241 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 2, 5:47 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Washington | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateWashington offense vs USC defense | 34.0%124th | 39.1%65th |
| Early-down success rateUSC offense vs Washington defense | 33.3%7th | 39.7%69th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateWashington offense vs USC defense | 28.9%119th | 41.9%85th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateUSC offense vs Washington defense | 28.9%9th | 51.1%19th |
| Explosive play rateWashington offense vs USC defense | 5.9%92nd | 7.1%83rd |
| Explosive play rateUSC offense vs Washington defense | 4.6%16th | 9.0%28th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 59.4%11th-highest | 50.8%68th-highest |
On 3rd down Washington converts 28.9% (119th) against a USC defense allowing 41.9% (85th).
On 3rd down USC converts 51.1% (19th) against a Washington defense allowing 28.9% (9th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Washington | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Jedd Fisch | Lincoln Riley |
| Tenureat this school | 3rd season | 5th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 18–12 | 40–18 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 35–34 | 95–28 |
| Offensive coordinator | Jedd Fisch | Luke Huard |
| Defensive coordinator | Ryan Walters | Gary Patterson |
Staff list as of October 2, 5:43 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 2 times since 2021: Washington won 2 and USC 0.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | USC 21, Washington 26 Washington won | ||
| Nov 4, 2023 | Washington 52, USC 42 Washington won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Washington Huskies
- Washington Huskies team stats
- Washington Huskies at Nebraska Cornhuskers (Oct 31)
- Washington Huskies 38, Purdue Boilermakers 26 (Oct 16)
- Iowa Hawkeyes 41, Washington Huskies 24 (Oct 9)
USC Trojans
- USC Trojans team stats
- Ohio State Buckeyes at USC Trojans (Oct 31)
- USC Trojans 7, Wisconsin Badgers 24 (Oct 24)
- USC Trojans 31, Penn State Nittany Lions 23 (Oct 10)
- Oregon Ducks 41, USC Trojans 27 (Sep 26)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on October 3, 2026
- Memphis Tigers 59, Charlotte 49ers 8 (Oct 3)
- Navy Midshipmen 9, Air Force Falcons 14 (Oct 3)
- UCF Knights 17, Houston Cougars 27 (Oct 3)
- West Virginia Mountaineers 42, Iowa State Cyclones 45 (Oct 3)
- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 0, Kansas Jayhawks 55 (Oct 3)
- Michigan Wolverines 14, Minnesota Golden Gophers 20 (Oct 3)
- Alabama Crimson Tide 56, Mississippi State Bulldogs 23 (Oct 3)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish 37, North Carolina Tar Heels 26 (Oct 3)
- Boston College Eagles 16, SMU Mustangs 25 (Oct 3)
- Syracuse Orange 42, UConn Huskies 41 (Oct 3)
- Stanford Cardinal 3, Wake Forest Demon Deacons 57 (Oct 3)
- Michigan State Spartans 3, Wisconsin Badgers 31 (Oct 3)
- Vanderbilt Commodores 14, Georgia Bulldogs 38 (Oct 3)
- Western Michigan Broncos 20, Buffalo Bulls 17 (Oct 3)
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