Arkansas Razorbacks vs Vanderbilt Commodores Final — October 17, 2026
ARKOffense2026 regular season to dateVAN
ARKDefenseVANARKRecent formVANARKHome and roadseason to dateVANARKLast 10 gamesVANRest & travelrest and travel
ARKRest & travelVANAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 6 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Arkansas (1-4) visited Vanderbilt (2-3) on Saturday, October 17 at 7:00 PM ET.
Arkansas has the 123rd-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 124th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Vanderbilt has the 75th-ranked offense and the 104th-ranked defense. When Arkansas has the ball, a 123rd-ranked offense (−0.120 EPA per play) meets a 104th-ranked defense (+0.159 allowed); when Vanderbilt has it, a 75th-ranked offense (+0.040) meets a 124th-ranked defense (+0.226 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Arkansas offense is at 40.0% (127th) and the Vanderbilt offense at 44.7% (88th). Arkansas scores 17.0 points per game (117th) and allows 30.4 (101st); Vanderbilt scores 23.2 (84th) and allows 33.6 (116th).
Arkansas is 2-4 and 2-4 against the spread; its last game was a 24-17 loss to Tennessee. Vanderbilt is 3-3 and 3-3 against the spread; its last game was a 52-17 loss to Ole Miss.
Vanderbilt closed as a 5.5-point favorite at home against Arkansas. The spread opened at Vanderbilt -6.5. The total closed at 48.5, down from 49 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Arkansas +178, Vanderbilt -220) prices Arkansas at 34% and Vanderbilt at 66%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Arkansas Razorbacks 31, Vanderbilt Commodores 21
Arkansas Razorbacks won by 10.
- Against the closing spread (Vanderbilt Commodores -5.5): Arkansas Razorbacks covered.
- Combined score 52 vs the closing total of 48.5: Over.
- Arkansas Razorbacks closed at +178 on the moneyline (a 34% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 2 points toward Arkansas Razorbacks.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Arkansas Razorbacks 34%, Vanderbilt Commodores 66%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q2 6:16 — Vanderbilt Commodores ball, 2nd & 10 at VAN 20No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Curtis pass intercepted by #20 J.Johnson at Vandy25 #20 J.Johnson return 25 yards to the Vandy00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:16 #30 M.Gilbert kick…Arkansas Razorbacks 20% → 36% (+16 pts) · Drive 7 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 6:48 — Vanderbilt Commodores ball, 1st & 10 at VAN 33No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Curtis pass complete deep right to #19 M.Veney caught at Ark34, for 45 yards to the Ark22 (#1 C.Harrison), 1ST DOWN. The previous play is…Vanderbilt Commodores 36% → 46% (+10 pts) · Drive 14 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 0:12 — Arkansas Razorbacks ball, 2nd & 6 at VAN 35No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass complete deep left to #19 A.Jordan caught at Vandy03, for 32 yards to the Vandy03, out of bounds at Vandy03, 1ST DOWNArkansas Razorbacks 54% → 67% (+13 pts) · Drive 17 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 4:52 — Vanderbilt Commodores ball, 3rd & 9 at ARK 37Shotgun #2 J.Curtis pass complete short middle to #0 J.Sherrill caught at Ark28, for 10 yards to the Ark27 (#6 K.House), 1ST DOWNVanderbilt Commodores 25% → 36% (+11 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 3:46 — Vanderbilt Commodores ball, 2nd & 12 at ARK 29Shotgun #2 J.Curtis pass intercepted by #24 M.Mitchell at Ark31 QB hurried by #0 H.Osborne and #91 C.Jones, End Of Play. The previous play is under automatic rev…Arkansas Razorbacks 73% → 90% (+17 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
Arkansas Razorbacks won after falling as low as 19% (Q2 6:39).
Game DNA
| Arkansas | Points added | Vanderbilt |
|---|---|---|
| +1.9 | Passingdropbacks | -5.8 |
| -3.8 | Rushingdesigned runs | +0.8 |
| +10.6 | Explosive plays5 plays · 4 plays | +7.1 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 2 giveaways | -11.8 |
| -6.3 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -0.5 |
| -3.4 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -2.3 |
| +4.0 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 3 of 3 · 2 of 2 | +3.1 |
| +2.9 | All plays | -9.5 |
The biggest single gap: turnovers, worth about 11.8 points to Arkansas Razorbacks. The final margin was 10.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Vanderbilt Commodores closed as the market favourite at 66% and lost.
The line moved toward Arkansas Razorbacks before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Arkansas +6.5 (-107)
Arkansas +5.5 (-110)
Vanderbilt -244 68%
Vanderbilt -220 66%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts184
- Completion %59.8%159th
- Passing yards1,193101st
- Yards per attempt6.5192nd
- TD–INT7–4
- Rushing yards166292nd
- Season line50 carries, 166 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving yards6057th
- Season line42 catches, 605 yds, 2 TD
- Tackles4462nd
- Attempts130
- Completion %63.1%110th
- Passing yards968159th
- Yards per attempt7.5123rd
- TD–INT5–5
- Rushing yards213218th
- Season line51 carries, 213 yds, 4 TD
- Receiving yards52912th
- Season line33 catches, 529 yds, 3 TD
- Tackles4462nd
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 259 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 14, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Arkansas | Vanderbilt |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateArkansas offense vs Vanderbilt defense | 37.4%128th | 41.0%40th |
| Early-down success rateVanderbilt offense vs Arkansas defense | 48.2%122nd | 41.2%90th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateArkansas offense vs Vanderbilt defense | 37.3%89th | 42.6%90th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateVanderbilt offense vs Arkansas defense | 50.0%121st | 36.1%95th |
| Explosive play rateArkansas offense vs Vanderbilt defense | 7.1%61st | 6.6%65th |
| Explosive play rateVanderbilt offense vs Arkansas defense | 7.4%90th | 5.5%103rd |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 55.8%25th-highest | 54.4%35th-highest |
On 3rd down Arkansas converts 37.3% (89th) against a Vanderbilt defense allowing 42.6% (90th).
On 3rd down Vanderbilt converts 36.1% (95th) against a Arkansas defense allowing 50.0% (121st).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Arkansas | Vanderbilt |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Ryan Silverfield | Clark Lea |
| Tenureat this school | 1st season | 6th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 2–4 | 29–39 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 52–29 | 29–39 |
| Offensive coordinator | Tim Cramsey | Tim Beck |
| Defensive coordinator | Ron Roberts | Steve Gregory |
Staff list as of October 13, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Teams
Arkansas Razorbacks
- Arkansas Razorbacks team stats
- Missouri Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks (Oct 31)
- Tennessee Volunteers 24, Arkansas Razorbacks 17 (Oct 10)
- Arkansas Razorbacks 7, Texas A&M Aggies 34 (Oct 3)
Vanderbilt Commodores
- Vanderbilt Commodores team stats
- Vanderbilt Commodores 17, Kentucky Wildcats 34 (Oct 24)
- Ole Miss Rebels 52, Vanderbilt Commodores 17 (Oct 10)
- Vanderbilt Commodores 14, Georgia Bulldogs 38 (Oct 3)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on October 17, 2026
- Florida Atlantic Owls 24, Army Black Knights 56 (Oct 17)
- Pittsburgh Panthers 21, Boston College Eagles 27 (Oct 17)
- Ball State Cardinals 32, Bowling Green Falcons 31 (Oct 17)
- Charleston Southern Buccaneers 0, Clemson Tigers 37 (Oct 17)
- Ohio State Buckeyes 19, Indiana Hoosiers 15 (Oct 17)
- Georgia State Panthers 22, James Madison Dukes 49 (Oct 17)
- Kansas Jayhawks 24, Kansas State Wildcats 35 (Oct 17)
- Mississippi State Bulldogs 0, LSU Tigers 31 (Oct 17)
- Northwestern Wildcats 24, Michigan State Spartans 21 (Oct 17)
- Virginia Cavaliers 13, SMU Mustangs 23 (Oct 17)
- Florida Gators 27, Texas Longhorns 24 (Oct 17)
- Cincinnati Bearcats 42, West Virginia Mountaineers 45 (Oct 17)
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights 37, Maryland Terrapins 30 (Oct 17)
- UMass Minutemen 18, Buffalo Bulls 25 (Oct 17)
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