Tennessee Volunteers vs Arkansas Razorbacks Final — October 10, 2026
TENNOffense2026 regular season to dateARK
TENNDefenseARKTENNRecent formARKTENNHome and roadseason to dateARKTENNLast 10 gamesARKRest & travelrest and travel
TENNRest & travelARKAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 5 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Tennessee (3-1) visited Arkansas (1-3) on Saturday, October 10 at 4:15 PM ET.
Tennessee has the 65th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 30th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Arkansas has the 119th-ranked offense and the 121st-ranked defense. When Tennessee has the ball, a 65th-ranked offense (+0.077 EPA per play) meets a 121st-ranked defense (+0.249 allowed); when Arkansas has it, a 119th-ranked offense (−0.117) meets a 30th-ranked defense (−0.060 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Tennessee offense is at 45.7% (79th) and the Arkansas offense at 39.5% (129th). Tennessee scores 32.0 points per game (40th) and allows 16.8 (23rd); Arkansas scores 17.0 (115th) and allows 32.0 (106th).
Tennessee is 4-1 and 3-2 against the spread; its last game was a 24-14 win over Auburn. Arkansas is 2-3 and 1-4 against the spread; its last game was a 34-7 loss to Texas A&M.
Tennessee closed as a 13.5-point road favorite, with Arkansas getting the points at home. The spread opened at Tennessee -14.5. The total closed at 51.5, down from 54.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Tennessee -615, Arkansas +410) prices Tennessee at 81% and Arkansas at 19%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Tennessee Volunteers 24, Arkansas Razorbacks 17
Tennessee Volunteers won by 7.
- Against the closing spread (Arkansas Razorbacks +13.5): Arkansas Razorbacks covered.
- Combined score 41 vs the closing total of 51.5: Under.
- Tennessee Volunteers closed at -615 on the moneyline (a 81% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 2 points toward Arkansas Razorbacks.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Tennessee Volunteers 81%, Arkansas Razorbacks 19%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q3 3:43 — Tennessee Volunteers ball, 3rd & 7 at TENN 28No Huddle-Shotgun #12 G.MacIntyre pass complete short left to #14 B.Staley caught at TEN38, for 22 yards to the TEN50 (#34 B.Green), 1ST DOWNTennessee Volunteers 41% → 51% (+10 pts) · Drive 18 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 14:33 — Tennessee Volunteers ball, 1st & 10 at TENN 26No Huddle-Shotgun #12 G.MacIntyre pass complete short left to #7 D.Brame caught at TEN45, for 68 yards to the ARK06 (#2 S.Lewis), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNTennessee Volunteers 56% → 73% (+18 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 7:08 — Tennessee Volunteers ball, 1st & 15 at TENN 20No Huddle-Shotgun #12 G.MacIntyre pass complete short right to #4 M.Matthews caught at TEN21, for 33 yards to the ARK47 (#2 S.Lewis), 1ST DOWNTennessee Volunteers 66% → 77% (+10 pts) · Drive 22 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 5:44 — Tennessee Volunteers ball, 3rd & 5 at ARK 42No Huddle-Shotgun #12 G.MacIntyre pass intercepted by #2 S.Lewis at ARK31 QB hurried by #1 C.Harrison #2 S.Lewis return 11 yards to the ARK42, End Of PlayArkansas Razorbacks 27% → 49% (+22 pts) · Drive 22 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 3:54 — Tennessee Volunteers ball, 1st & 10 at TENN 6Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 59 yards gain to the ARK35 (#2 S.Lewis), 1ST DOWNTennessee Volunteers 64% → 80% (+16 pts) · Drive 24 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| Tennessee | Points added | Arkansas |
|---|---|---|
| -5.9 | Passingdropbacks | -14.1 |
| -2.6 | Rushingdesigned runs | -2.4 |
| +13.8 | Explosive plays6 plays · 5 plays | +11.5 |
| -5.2 | Turnovers3 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| +0.0 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -2.8 |
| -1.3 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -1.5 |
| +7.3 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 3 of 4 · 2 of 4 | -2.5 |
| +6.2 | All plays | -11.7 |
The biggest single gap: red zone, worth about 9.9 points to Tennessee Volunteers. The final margin was 7.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Tennessee Volunteers closed as the market favourite at 81% and won.
The line moved toward Arkansas Razorbacks before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Tennessee -14.5 (-108)
Tennessee -13.5 (-115)
Arkansas +490 16%
Arkansas +410 19%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts101
- Completion %60.4%153rd
- Passing yards697211th
- Yards per attempt6.9162nd
- TD–INT7–1
- Rushing yards54011th
- Season line88 carries, 540 yds, 7 TD
- Receiving yards31869th
- Season line18 catches, 318 yds, 3 TD
- Tackles33115th
- Attempts157
- Completion %60.5%151st
- Passing yards1,038107th
- Yards per attempt6.6182nd
- TD–INT6–4
- Rushing yards136307th
- Season line40 carries, 136 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving yards5497th
- Season line35 catches, 549 yds, 2 TD
- Tackles3587th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 256 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 7, 5:35 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Tennessee | Arkansas |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateTennessee offense vs Arkansas defense | 40.3%101st | 50.0%126th |
| Early-down success rateArkansas offense vs Tennessee defense | 42.1%56th | 34.5%134th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateTennessee offense vs Arkansas defense | 37.3%91st | 52.8%129th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateArkansas offense vs Tennessee defense | 37.0%45th | 42.5%59th |
| Explosive play rateTennessee offense vs Arkansas defense | 4.6%120th | 6.7%69th |
| Explosive play rateArkansas offense vs Tennessee defense | 4.4%11th | 6.6%75th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 40.9%121st-highest | 58.6%11th-highest |
On 3rd down Tennessee converts 37.3% (91st) against a Arkansas defense allowing 52.8% (129th).
On 3rd down Arkansas converts 42.5% (59th) against a Tennessee defense allowing 37.0% (45th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Tennessee | Arkansas |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Josh Heupel | Ryan Silverfield |
| Tenureat this school | 6th season | 1st season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 49–21 | 2–3 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 77–29 | 52–28 |
| Offensive coordinator | Joey Halzle | Tim Cramsey |
| Defensive coordinator | Jim Knowles | Ron Roberts |
Staff list as of October 6, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 2 times since 2021: Tennessee won 1 and Arkansas 1.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2025 | Arkansas 31, Tennessee 34 Tennessee won | ||
| Oct 5, 2024 | Tennessee 14, Arkansas 19 Arkansas won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Tennessee Volunteers
- Tennessee Volunteers team stats
- Tennessee Volunteers 24, South Carolina Gamecocks 27 (Oct 24)
- Alabama Crimson Tide 10, Tennessee Volunteers 26 (Oct 17)
- Auburn Tigers 14, Tennessee Volunteers 24 (Oct 3)
Arkansas Razorbacks
More NCAAF games on October 10, 2026
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- Texas A&M Aggies 6, Missouri Tigers 27 (Oct 10)
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons 38, NC State Wolfpack 14 (Oct 10)
- Indiana Hoosiers 20, Nebraska Cornhuskers 17 (Oct 10)
- UCF Knights 28, Oklahoma State Cowboys 42 (Oct 10)
- North Carolina Tar Heels 21, Pittsburgh Panthers 17 (Oct 10)
- Arizona Wildcats 52, West Virginia Mountaineers 31 (Oct 10)
- Ball State Cardinals 14, Northwestern Wildcats 45 (Oct 10)
- South Carolina Gamecocks 38, Florida Gators 19 (Oct 10)
- Old Dominion Monarchs 10, Appalachian State Mountaineers 3 (Oct 10)
- Rice Owls 12, East Carolina Pirates 28 (Oct 10)
- Miami (OH) RedHawks 20, UMass Minutemen 19 (Oct 10)
- Eastern Michigan Eagles 25, Akron Zips 23 (Oct 10)
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