Alabama Crimson Tide vs Tennessee Volunteers Final — October 17, 2026
ALAOffense2026 regular season to dateTENN
ALADefenseTENNALARecent formTENNALAHome and roadseason to dateTENNALALast 10 gamesTENNRest & travelrest and travel
ALARest & travelTENNAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 6 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Alabama (5-1) visited Tennessee (4-1) on Saturday, October 17 at 3:30 PM ET.
Alabama has the 1st-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 40th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Tennessee has the 55th-ranked offense and the 23rd-ranked defense. When Alabama has the ball, a 1st-ranked offense (+0.423 EPA per play) meets a 23rd-ranked defense (−0.075 allowed); when Tennessee has it, a 55th-ranked offense (+0.089) meets a 40th-ranked defense (−0.019 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Alabama offense is at 56.9% (3rd) and the Tennessee offense at 46.0% (81st). Alabama scores 44.2 points per game (1st) and allows 20.7 (34th); Tennessee scores 30.4 (45th) and allows 16.8 (16th).
Alabama is 5-1 and 4-2 against the spread; its last game was a 20-17 loss to Georgia. Tennessee is 5-1 and 3-3 against the spread; its last game was a 24-17 win over Arkansas.
Alabama closed as a 7.5-point road favorite, with Tennessee getting the points at home. The spread opened at Alabama -7. The total closed at 50.5, down from 56.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Alabama -325, Tennessee +255) prices Alabama at 73% and Tennessee at 27%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Alabama Crimson Tide 10, Tennessee Volunteers 26
Tennessee Volunteers won by 16.
- Against the closing spread (Tennessee Volunteers +7.5): Tennessee Volunteers covered.
- Combined score 36 vs the closing total of 50.5: Under.
- Tennessee Volunteers closed at +255 on the moneyline (a 27% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 4 points toward Alabama Crimson Tide.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Alabama Crimson Tide 73%, Tennessee Volunteers 27%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 7:48 — Alabama Crimson Tide ball, 2nd & 22 at ALA 13Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass incomplete short middle to #7 R.Scott thrown to BAMA10 broken up by #4 T.RedmondAlabama Crimson Tide 46% → 56% (+10 pts) · Drive 4 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 5:20 — Tennessee Volunteers ball, 3rd & 7 at ALA 21No Huddle-Shotgun #12 G.MacIntyre sacked for loss of 2 yards to the BAMA23 (#0 Y.Pierre)Alabama Crimson Tide 41% → 55% (+14 pts) · Drive 5 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 10:20 — Tennessee Volunteers ball, 1st & 10 at TENN 14No Huddle-Shotgun #12 G.MacIntyre pass intercepted by #13 I.Taylor at TENN28 broken up by #0 Y.Pierre #13 I.Taylor return 14 yards to the TENN14 (#7 D.Brame), ou…Alabama Crimson Tide 43% → 57% (+14 pts) · Drive 11 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 4:04 — Alabama Crimson Tide ball, 4th & 4 at ALA 31Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass incomplete short middle to #7 R.Scott thrown to BAMA47 broken up by #6 Q.MossAlabama Crimson Tide 52% → 66% (+14 pts) · Drive 14 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 9:46 — Alabama Crimson Tide ball, 4th & 1 at TENN 40#4 D.Hill rush middle for 0 yards to the TENN40 (#22 J.Telander; #19 N.Robinson), TURNOVER ON DOWNSTennessee Volunteers 36% → 46% (+10 pts) · Drive 19 in Drive X-Ray
Tennessee Volunteers won after falling as low as 27% (Q1 15:00).
Game DNA
| Alabama | Points added | Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| -15.3 | Passingdropbacks | +5.1 |
| -3.2 | Rushingdesigned runs | -4.1 |
| +0.2 | Explosive plays1 plays · 3 plays | +7.0 |
| -1.4 | Turnovers4 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -2.9 |
| +6.2 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +3.0 |
| -5.0 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -3.5 |
| +4.9 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 2 · 2 of 5 | -1.1 |
| -13.5 | All plays | +3.5 |
The biggest single gap: passing, worth about 20.4 points to Tennessee Volunteers. The final margin was 16.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Alabama Crimson Tide closed as the market favourite at 73% and lost.
The line moved toward Alabama Crimson Tide before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Alabama -7 (-106)
Alabama -7.5 (-110)
Tennessee +207 31%
Tennessee +255 27%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts162
- Completion %67.9%42nd
- Passing yards1,59930th
- Yards per attempt9.915th
- TD–INT12–2
- Rushing yards301125th
- Season line51 carries, 301 yds, 5 TD
- Receiving yards41538th
- Season line23 catches, 415 yds, 4 TD
- Tackles4551st
- Attempts101
- Completion %60.4%153rd
- Passing yards697225th
- Yards per attempt6.9165th
- TD–INT7–1
- Rushing yards6787th
- Season line107 carries, 678 yds, 8 TD
- Receiving yards39653rd
- Season line22 catches, 396 yds, 3 TD
- Tackles39122nd
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 259 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 14, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Alabama | Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateAlabama offense vs Tennessee defense | 51.5%6th | 42.9%65th |
| Early-down success rateTennessee offense vs Alabama defense | 39.1%22nd | 40.9%95th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateAlabama offense vs Tennessee defense | 44.1%43rd | 33.3%22nd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateTennessee offense vs Alabama defense | 38.8%62nd | 38.1%86th |
| Explosive play rateAlabama offense vs Tennessee defense | 10.8%3rd | 5.2%24th |
| Explosive play rateTennessee offense vs Alabama defense | 9.5%128th | 5.6%99th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 50.0%78th-highest | 42.2%120th-highest |
On 3rd down Alabama converts 44.1% (43rd) against a Tennessee defense allowing 33.3% (22nd).
On 3rd down Tennessee converts 38.1% (86th) against a Alabama defense allowing 38.8% (62nd).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Alabama | Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Kalen DeBoer | Josh Heupel |
| Tenureat this school | 3rd season | 6th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 25–9 | 50–21 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 62–18 | 78–29 |
| Offensive coordinator | Ryan Grubb | Joey Halzle |
| Defensive coordinator | Maurice Linguist / Kane Wommack | Jim Knowles |
Staff list as of October 13, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 5 times since 2021: Alabama won 3 and Tennessee 2.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2025 | Tennessee 20, Alabama 37 Alabama won | ||
| Oct 19, 2024 | Alabama 17, Tennessee 24 Tennessee won | ||
| Oct 21, 2023 | Tennessee 20, Alabama 34 Alabama won | ||
| Oct 15, 2022 | Alabama 49, Tennessee 52 Tennessee won | ||
| Oct 23, 2021 | Tennessee 24, Alabama 52 Alabama won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Alabama Crimson Tide
- Alabama Crimson Tide team stats
- Texas A&M Aggies 20, Alabama Crimson Tide 31 (Oct 24)
- Georgia Bulldogs 20, Alabama Crimson Tide 17 (Oct 10)
- Alabama Crimson Tide 56, Mississippi State Bulldogs 23 (Oct 3)
Tennessee Volunteers
- Tennessee Volunteers team stats
- Tennessee Volunteers 24, South Carolina Gamecocks 27 (Oct 24)
- Tennessee Volunteers 24, Arkansas Razorbacks 17 (Oct 10)
- Auburn Tigers 14, Tennessee Volunteers 24 (Oct 3)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on October 17, 2026
- Florida Atlantic Owls 24, Army Black Knights 56 (Oct 17)
- Pittsburgh Panthers 21, Boston College Eagles 27 (Oct 17)
- Ball State Cardinals 32, Bowling Green Falcons 31 (Oct 17)
- Charleston Southern Buccaneers 0, Clemson Tigers 37 (Oct 17)
- Ohio State Buckeyes 19, Indiana Hoosiers 15 (Oct 17)
- Georgia State Panthers 22, James Madison Dukes 49 (Oct 17)
- Kansas Jayhawks 24, Kansas State Wildcats 35 (Oct 17)
- Mississippi State Bulldogs 0, LSU Tigers 31 (Oct 17)
- Northwestern Wildcats 24, Michigan State Spartans 21 (Oct 17)
- Virginia Cavaliers 13, SMU Mustangs 23 (Oct 17)
- Florida Gators 27, Texas Longhorns 24 (Oct 17)
- Cincinnati Bearcats 42, West Virginia Mountaineers 45 (Oct 17)
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights 37, Maryland Terrapins 30 (Oct 17)
- UMass Minutemen 18, Buffalo Bulls 25 (Oct 17)
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