Fresno State Bulldogs vs San Diego State Aztecs Final — October 17, 2026
FRESOffense2026 regular season to dateSDSU
FRESDefenseSDSUFRESRecent formSDSUFRESHome and roadseason to dateSDSUFRESLast 10 gamesSDSURest & travelrest and travel
FRESRest & travelSDSUAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 6 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Fresno State (4-2) visited San Diego State (1-4) on Saturday, October 17 at 10:30 PM ET.
Fresno State has the 36th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 55th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, San Diego State has the 136th-ranked offense and the 83rd-ranked defense. When Fresno State has the ball, a 36th-ranked offense (+0.152 EPA per play) meets a 83rd-ranked defense (+0.096 allowed); when San Diego State has it, a 136th-ranked offense (−0.278) meets a 55th-ranked defense (+0.025 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Fresno State offense is at 46.6% (74th) and the San Diego State offense at 38.9% (132nd). Fresno State scores 28.3 points per game (55th) and allows 20.0 (32nd); San Diego State scores 16.8 (119th) and allows 38.0 (128th).
Fresno State is 4-2 and 5-1 against the spread; its last game was a 38-31 loss to Boise State. San Diego State is 2-4 and 1-5 against the spread; its last game was a 66-14 loss to Oregon State.
Fresno State closed as a 6.5-point road favorite, with San Diego State getting the points at home. The spread opened at Fresno State -9.5. The total closed at 46.5, up from 44.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Fresno State -265, San Diego State +215) prices Fresno State at 70% and San Diego State at 30%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Fresno State Bulldogs 23, San Diego State Aztecs 26
San Diego State Aztecs won by 3.
- Against the closing spread (San Diego State Aztecs +6.5): San Diego State Aztecs covered.
- Combined score 49 vs the closing total of 46.5: Over.
- San Diego State Aztecs closed at +215 on the moneyline (a 30% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 7 points toward San Diego State Aztecs.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Fresno State Bulldogs 70%, San Diego State Aztecs 30%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q3 1:44 — Fresno State Bulldogs ball, 4th & 20 at FRES 47PENALTY SDSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#41 A.Lash) 15 yards from FS47 to SDSU38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYFresno State Bulldogs 61% → 77% (+16 pts) · Drive 19 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 14:42 — San Diego State Aztecs ball, 1st & 10 at SDSU 8No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush middle for 67 yards gain to the FS25 (#31 K.Harris), 1ST DOWNSan Diego State Aztecs 35% → 53% (+18 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 5:33 — Fresno State Bulldogs ball, 2nd & 10 at SDSU 31Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete deep left to #0 E.Avit caught at SDSU03, for 29 yards to the SDSU02 (#29 J.Hunter), 1ST DOWNFresno State Bulldogs 38% → 59% (+21 pts) · Drive 21 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 2:07 — San Diego State Aztecs ball, 3rd & 10 at SDSU 37No Huddle-Shotgun #11 S.Saunders pass complete short left to #24 J.Napier caught at SDSU47, for 26 yards to the FS37 (#18 L.Studt), 1ST DOWNSan Diego State Aztecs 50% → 71% (+21 pts) · Drive 22 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:57 — San Diego State Aztecs ball, 4th & 8 at FRES 35#96 C.DiLeva field goal attempt from 53 yards GOOD (H: #89 T.Dorje, LS: #64 C.Poulson), clock 00:57San Diego State Aztecs 61% → 76% (+15 pts) · Drive 22 in Drive X-Ray
San Diego State Aztecs won after falling as low as 23% (Q3 1:13).
Game DNA
| Fresno State | Points added | San Diego State |
|---|---|---|
| -11.7 | Passingdropbacks | -2.3 |
| +4.0 | Rushingdesigned runs | -2.6 |
| +4.5 | Explosive plays2 plays · 4 plays | +9.1 |
| -5.6 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -4.0 |
| +0.5 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +2.0 |
| +4.8 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -1.2 |
| +4.3 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 3 of 3 · 1 of 4 | -2.3 |
| +0.8 | All plays | -1.3 |
The biggest single gap: passing, worth about 9.5 points to San Diego State Aztecs. The final margin was 3.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Fresno State Bulldogs closed as the market favourite at 70% and lost.
The line moved toward San Diego State Aztecs before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Fresno State -9.5 (-114)
Fresno State -6.5 (-112)
San Diego State +300 24%
San Diego State +215 30%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts170
- Completion %64.7%82nd
- Passing yards1,25293rd
- Yards per attempt7.4125th
- TD–INT8–1
- Rushing yards286136th
- Season line42 carries, 286 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving yards39653rd
- Season line29 catches, 396 yds, 2 TD
- Tackles5219th
- Attempts140
- Completion %53.6%229th
- Passing yards784205th
- Yards per attempt5.6241st
- TD–INT6–5
- Rushing yards35580th
- Season line67 carries, 355 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving yards177343rd
- Season line16 catches, 177 yds, 2 TD
- Tackles631st
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 259 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 14, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Fresno State | San Diego State |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateFresno State offense vs San Diego State defense | 40.6%100th | 48.1%121st |
| Early-down success rateSan Diego State offense vs Fresno State defense | 42.1%52nd | 35.8%131st |
| 3rd-down conversion rateFresno State offense vs San Diego State defense | 39.7%77th | 43.8%97th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateSan Diego State offense vs Fresno State defense | 34.4%34th | 25.5%133rd |
| Explosive play rateFresno State offense vs San Diego State defense | 7.3%53rd | 7.6%97th |
| Explosive play rateSan Diego State offense vs Fresno State defense | 5.7%35th | 4.0%133rd |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 52.7%52nd-highest | 46.8%95th-highest |
On 3rd down Fresno State converts 39.7% (77th) against a San Diego State defense allowing 43.8% (97th).
On 3rd down San Diego State converts 25.5% (133rd) against a Fresno State defense allowing 34.4% (34th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Fresno State | San Diego State |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Matt Entz | Sean Lewis |
| Tenureat this school | 2nd season | 3rd season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 13–6 | 14–17 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 13–6 | 38–48 |
| Offensive coordinator | Josh Davis | Sean Lewis |
| Defensive coordinator | Nick Benedetto | Demetrius Sumler |
Staff list as of October 13, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 4 times since 2021: Fresno State won 2 and San Diego State 2.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2025 | San Diego State 23, Fresno State 0 San Diego State won | ||
| Nov 25, 2023 | Fresno State 18, San Diego State 33 San Diego State won | ||
| Oct 29, 2022 | San Diego State 28, Fresno State 32 Fresno State won | ||
| Oct 30, 2021 | Fresno State 30, San Diego State 20 Fresno State won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Fresno State Bulldogs
- Fresno State Bulldogs team stats
- Oregon State Beavers at Fresno State Bulldogs (Oct 31)
- Boise State Broncos 38, Fresno State Bulldogs 31 (Oct 10)
- Fresno State Bulldogs 26, Washington State Cougars 6 (Oct 3)
San Diego State Aztecs
More NCAAF games on October 17, 2026
- Florida Atlantic Owls 24, Army Black Knights 56 (Oct 17)
- Pittsburgh Panthers 21, Boston College Eagles 27 (Oct 17)
- Ball State Cardinals 32, Bowling Green Falcons 31 (Oct 17)
- Charleston Southern Buccaneers 0, Clemson Tigers 37 (Oct 17)
- Ohio State Buckeyes 19, Indiana Hoosiers 15 (Oct 17)
- Georgia State Panthers 22, James Madison Dukes 49 (Oct 17)
- Kansas Jayhawks 24, Kansas State Wildcats 35 (Oct 17)
- Mississippi State Bulldogs 0, LSU Tigers 31 (Oct 17)
- Northwestern Wildcats 24, Michigan State Spartans 21 (Oct 17)
- Virginia Cavaliers 13, SMU Mustangs 23 (Oct 17)
- Florida Gators 27, Texas Longhorns 24 (Oct 17)
- Cincinnati Bearcats 42, West Virginia Mountaineers 45 (Oct 17)
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights 37, Maryland Terrapins 30 (Oct 17)
- UMass Minutemen 18, Buffalo Bulls 25 (Oct 17)
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